Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Evil Jeremy]

What is currently a bigger factor in the eventual path of TD16/Noel, the timing of the front or the rate of intensification?

[MiamiensisWx]

A track further E is bad news. That would be horrible news for Hispaniola with respect to flooding. These rains should fall over the parched Southeast and Florida; Haiti and the DR doesn't need this system. Hopefully, this will be an Odette '03 redux that causes relatively fewer deaths on the island. Unfortunately, even ~100 deaths is quite low for this island. Remember Jeanne '04 and other deadly systems that killed +1,000 people. Deforestation and economic conditions are huge problems in Haiti and the region.

[wxman57]

What is currently a bigger factor in the eventual path of TD16/Noel, the timing of the front or the rate of intensification?

The ridge north of TD 16 is forecast to begin moving out of the way to the east tomorrow (by GFS). That would leave the door wide open for NNW movement across Haiti, passing east of Cuba, then north and east and out to sea. The faster intensification makes such a track more likely. It's looking like this storm won't threaten Florida.

[Emmett_Brown]

On the Vis loop, it appears to be moving NW to me. In the last couple of vis frames, you can see the core moving NW, as the high level shield expands to the W. Should cross the coast of Haiti's SW peninsula (forget the name of that area) tonight.

This looks like a storm at the current time, not a depression. There is a "number nine" look to it that tells me it is wrapping and tightening.

[MiamiensisWx]

On the Vis loop, it appears to be moving NW to me. In the last couple of vis frames, you can see the core moving NW, as the high level shield expands to the W. Should cross the coast of Haiti's SW peninsula (forget the name of that area) tonight.

This looks like a storm at the current time, not a depression. There is a "number nine" look to it that tells me it is wrapping and tightening.

It is the Massif de la Hotte (Tiburon Peninsula).

http://go.hrw.com/atlas/norm_map/haiti.gif

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiburon_Peninsula

[HURAKAN]

Loop:

[Evil Jeremy]

Contrary to what some others said, I think that today is the make it or break it day, rather than tomorrow. By the end of today, we should have a really good idea on where this is going to end up.

ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1500 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 72.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 72.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 72.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.0N 73.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.0N 80.0W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 24.0N 78.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 72.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


000
WTNT31 KNHC 281443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

...DEPRESSION ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...
...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR ABOUT
220 MILES...355 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
HAITI.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION COULD PASS SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA...HEAVY RAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER
WILL PASS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 8 TO 12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND
JAMAICA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...16.5 N...72.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

[HURAKAN]

064
WTNT21 KNHC 281442
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1500 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 72.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 72.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 72.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.0N 73.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.0N 80.0W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 24.0N 78.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 72.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

878
WTNT31 KNHC 281443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

...DEPRESSION ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...
...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR ABOUT
220 MILES...355 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
HAITI.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION COULD PASS SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA...HEAVY RAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER
WILL PASS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 8 TO 12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND
JAMAICA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...16.5 N...72.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

754
WTNT41 KNHC 281459
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

THE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE...FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INFRARED CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COLD OVER A LARGE AREA...AND THERE IS EVEN A
BAND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD...GIVING THE SYSTEM A COMMA SHAPE. THE
DEPRESSION CERTAINLY SEEMS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
STORM...BUT THE AVAILABLE DATA AT THE MOMENT ARE INCONCLUSIVE AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT THIS HAS YET OCCURRED. THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM ABOUT 1115Z ONLY CAUGHT A PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION AND DID NOT RETRIEVE ANY RELIABLE WINDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 06Z
AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO DEPART SHORTLY TO
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION AND GIVE US A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
INTENSITY.

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALL OF THE MODELS
FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
HEIGHTS RISE FARTHER TO THE EAST. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS...IN
PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND HWRF...RESPOND TO THIS PATTERN CHANGE BY
FORECASTING A RELATIVELY QUICK RECURVATURE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN VIA
EASTERN CUBA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...HOWEVER...FORECAST A
SLOWER MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND KEEP THE
CYCLONE SOUTH OF CUBA BETWEEN 3 AND 5 DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT AT
A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE IN DEFERENCE TO THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE HUGE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK FORECAST ALSO TRANSLATE INTO A
VERY CHALLENGING INTENSITY PROGNOSIS. IF THE OFFICIAL TRACK WERE
TO VERIFY PERFECTLY...THE CIRCULATION CENTER WOULD REMAIN OVER
WATER FOR ABOUT FOUR MORE DAYS BEFORE CROSSING CUBA. SINCE THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN A DAY OR TWO...THE RESULTING DECREASE IN WIND
SHEAR WOULD PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. IF...HOWEVER...
THE CYCLONE GOES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...LAND INTERACTION WOULD
OCCUR SOONER AND PERHAPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD AND COULD LIMIT
STRENGTHENING. FINALLY...A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST COULD
PLACE THE CYCLONE WITHIN A WEAKER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND ALLOW FOR
MORE STRENGTHENING THAN FORECAST. IF THE CYCLONE DOES RECURVE
TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS...THE UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES NORTH OF CUBA ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE
STRONG AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN...AT LEAST
NOT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
PEAKS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
BETWEEN THE LGEM AND SHIPS SOLUTIONS...AND MUCH LESS THAN THE GFDL
AND HWRF FORECASTS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 16.5N 72.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 17.0N 73.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 18.0N 75.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 19.0N 76.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 20.0N 78.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 31/1200Z 21.0N 79.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 22.0N 80.0W 50 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
120HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 78.0W 45 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

[Derek Ortt]

not sure why they went with 72.5

also, a new burst forming very near the center. We could very well be seeing RI

The models also badly blew yet another upper wind forecast. The upper ridge is building right over the cyclone, not the WC

[wxman57]

NHC is sticking to the initial track. I just don't see it tracking that way on satellite now. It will probably turn north sooner and track well east of NHC's track. Also, the position of 16.5N/72.5W is outside the cirrus shield west of the convection. I guess we'll have to wait for recon to confirm where the center is. If the center really is east under the convection, then expect a significant NHC track shift right this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

Recon may find a moderate to strong storm.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I disagree with the NHC's position. I don't see any LLC near 16.5N and 72.5W. I see NNW low-level cloud motion, thus indicating a position further ENE (under the convection). This is clearly a 35 kt tropical storm, in my opinion. Regardless, the threat doesn't change, and the TPC's advisories should be heeded. People in Hispaniola should treat this system as a tropical storm with dangerous heavy precipitation. Mudslides will be a huge concern. I'm very worried. I'm VERY worried!!!

[Derek Ortt]

QS had it well east of the NHC position, as does visible imagery when using GARP to zoom in. The low cloud features also indicate a center. I am estimating about 16.8N and 71.7W now. May clip SW Haiti

[Evil Jeremy]

Large cone of error there. This is going to be known as "Halloween Hurricane" sooner or later, and it deserves the name. Coming right at the Halloween time, this storm might also produce scary results in the Islands, and it could be a horror to track with so many possible outcomes.

[cycloneye]

The plane will depart from Keesler base ar around 11:30 AM EDT.

[CrazyC83]

This seems to have some resemblance to Gordon (1994) at this point...

[NcentralFlaguy]

This storm is poised to move across sw Haiti ,its well north and east of the forecast track. 72.5???(scratching my head)

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 281459
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

THE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE...FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INFRARED CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COLD OVER A LARGE AREA...AND THERE IS EVEN A
BAND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD...GIVING THE SYSTEM A COMMA SHAPE. THE
DEPRESSION CERTAINLY SEEMS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
STORM...BUT THE AVAILABLE DATA AT THE MOMENT ARE INCONCLUSIVE AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT THIS HAS YET OCCURRED. THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM ABOUT 1115Z ONLY CAUGHT A PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION AND DID NOT RETRIEVE ANY RELIABLE WINDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 06Z
AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO DEPART SHORTLY TO
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION AND GIVE US A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
INTENSITY.

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALL OF THE MODELS
FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
HEIGHTS RISE FARTHER TO THE EAST. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS...IN
PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND HWRF...RESPOND TO THIS PATTERN CHANGE BY
FORECASTING A RELATIVELY QUICK RECURVATURE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN VIA
EASTERN CUBA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...HOWEVER...FORECAST A
SLOWER MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND KEEP THE
CYCLONE SOUTH OF CUBA BETWEEN 3 AND 5 DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT AT
A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE IN DEFERENCE TO THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE HUGE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK FORECAST ALSO TRANSLATE INTO A
VERY CHALLENGING INTENSITY PROGNOSIS. IF THE OFFICIAL TRACK WERE
TO VERIFY PERFECTLY...THE CIRCULATION CENTER WOULD REMAIN OVER
WATER FOR ABOUT FOUR MORE DAYS BEFORE CROSSING CUBA. SINCE THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN A DAY OR TWO...THE RESULTING DECREASE IN WIND
SHEAR WOULD PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. IF...HOWEVER...
THE CYCLONE GOES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...LAND INTERACTION WOULD
OCCUR SOONER AND PERHAPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD AND COULD LIMIT
STRENGTHENING. FINALLY...A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST COULD
PLACE THE CYCLONE WITHIN A WEAKER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND ALLOW FOR
MORE STRENGTHENING THAN FORECAST. IF THE CYCLONE DOES RECURVE
TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS...THE UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES NORTH OF CUBA ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE
STRONG AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN...AT LEAST
NOT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
PEAKS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
BETWEEN THE LGEM AND SHIPS SOLUTIONS...AND MUCH LESS THAN THE GFDL
AND HWRF FORECASTS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 16.5N 72.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 17.0N 73.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 18.0N 75.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 19.0N 76.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 20.0N 78.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 31/1200Z 21.0N 79.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 22.0N 80.0W 50 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
120HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 78.0W 45 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER KNABB