Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[drezee]

OBS HAVE STARTED!! CHECK THE RECON OBS THREAD!!

[RL3AO]

Oh man, I forgot how to read these HDOB's.

[Thunder44]

It doesn't say in the TCPOD, which was written for 12:15pm, that the flight was cancelled. They may be having some transmission problems are they are just leaving late.

[RL3AO]

They are near the PR/DR channel.

[Downdraft]

Accuweather forecasts the TD to become a hurricane and cross central Cuba in several days. They also caution the Keys and South Florida to closely monitor this system. Let's see what transpires before we give ouselves the all clear signal.

Whew! Now I know we are off the hook.

[RL3AO]

It doesn't say in the TCPOD, which was written for 12:15pm, that the flight was cancelled. They may be having some transmission problems are they are just leaving late.

They are sending HDOB's now.

[cycloneye]

They departed from St Croix.It looks like they will be in the center before the 2 PM intermidiete advisory.

[drezee]

IMO, it need to decouple for a day or two and move almost due W in order to strike FL...

[caneman]

CMC has it darn near striking Miami

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Very irresponsible for some to say it won't strike Florida just yet anyhow. If NHC is still cautious and uncertain, then a word to the wise........

[destruction92]

cmc has andros island struck....not miami.....even with that track, SE florida is spared.

when the gfdl starts pointing at florida, then start paying attention.

[Thunder44]

The SFMR reports are already off for this storm. Be careful using them guys.

[Dean4Storms]

Uh, south Florida is not in the clear with this storm yet, it would be foolish to claim so.

[USTropics]

CMC has it darn near striking Miami.

The CMC does love to bring impressive systems into Florida, but i think the current GFDL and HWRF model runs have hit this one on the button as wxman stated earlier.

[cycloneye]

They may be having some transmission problems.

It looks that way by the lack of obs and dropsondes.

[Derek Ortt]

they are still not at operational altitude and may be near land

[Typhoon_Willie]

And until So Fla. is officially out of the cone no one should be saying that So. Fla is being spared just yet. And remember this is a large system with strong winds estending a fair distance. So even if the center were to go over Andros South Fla would still the feel the effects of this storm.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 281716
AF303 0116A CYCLONE1 HDOB 01 20071028
170430 1745N 07141W 6922 03194 9990 +055 +999 128023 024 044 006 05
170500 1744N 07142W 6922 03197 9990 +065 +999 124020 022 040 008 01
170530 1743N 07144W 7105 02978 9990 +071 +999 112029 033 041 008 01
170600 1742N 07146W 7332 02712 9990 +097 +999 103037 041 042 008 01
170630 1741N 07148W 7567 02442 0046 +118 +109 101041 042 043 007 00
170700 1740N 07150W 7790 02202 0050 +127 +117 093048 049 043 008 00
170730 1739N 07152W 8020 01948 9990 +132 +999 095055 057 043 006 01
170800 1738N 07153W 8216 01744 9990 +143 +999 094054 057 041 004 01
170830 1737N 07155W 8436 01519 9990 +150 +999 081049 051 039 005 01
170900 1736N 07157W 8681 01270 9990 +166 +999 081052 053 039 002 01
170930 1735N 07159W 8916 01053 9990 +165 +999 067052 056 039 005 01
171000 1734N 07201W 9115 00850 9990 +181 +999 065047 050 040 003 01
171030 1733N 07203W 9333 00638 9990 +200 +999 064046 047 041 001 01
171100 1732N 07205W 9600 00393 9990 +210 +999 057046 049 043 001 01
171130 1731N 07206W 9762 00243 9990 +223 +999 049044 045 043 002 01
171200 1730N 07208W 9766 00240 9990 +222 +999 048045 046 043 000 05
171230 1728N 07209W 9768 00235 9990 +224 +999 049044 046 039 001 05
171300 1727N 07209W 9770 00235 9990 +227 +999 047042 043 042 000 05
171330 1725N 07209W 9767 00235 0035 +229 +227 050040 045 037 000 01
171400 1723N 07209W 9767 00236 0034 +233 +220 060041 042 038 003 00
$$

Operational altitude? 46 kt FL already!

[CrazyC83]

Now at operational - already 46 kt FL.

[caneman]

cmc has andros island struck....not miami.....even with that track, SE florida is spared.

when the gfdl starts pointing at florida, then start paying attention.

Umm, you must be mixing up the GFDL with years past. It hasn't done well this year and is thus far been ignored by the NHC>

[jinftl]

cmc has andros island struck....not miami.....even with that track, SE florida is spared.

when the gfdl starts pointing at florida, then start paying attention.

Wouldn't the 175 mile distance from Miami to Andros be well within the margin of error this far out for any model? I just don't see the science behind categorically writing this system off from effecting Florida as of this time...