Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

755
WTNT61 KNHC 281738
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
140 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007


REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS NEAR 50 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT
APPROXIMATELY 200 PM EDT...AND THE SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL
TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[RL3AO]

Hurakan beat me to it.

[JonathanBelles]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 281738
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
140 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007


REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS NEAR 50 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT
APPROXIMATELY 200 PM EDT...AND THE SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL
TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 281740
AF303 0116A CYCLONE1 HDOB 03 20071028
172430 1653N 07206W 9771 00210 0007 +227 +220 039050 052 048 000 00
172500 1652N 07204W 9772 00204 0005 +229 +220 040047 050 046 000 00
172530 1651N 07203W 9771 00205 0002 +241 +220 043047 049 047 000 00
172600 1650N 07202W 9764 00209 0000 +241 +220 041045 046 045 000 00
172630 1649N 07201W 9764 00207 9998 +238 +220 035042 045 045 003 00
172700 1648N 07200W 9779 00192 9997 +239 +220 041041 042 042 000 00
172730 1647N 07159W 9763 00202 9993 +236 +220 032042 044 047 000 00
172800 1646N 07157W 9770 00195 9991 +233 +220 037039 040 048 000 00
172830 1645N 07156W 9771 00188 9986 +237 +220 049033 036 040 000 00
172900 1645N 07155W 9768 00193 9984 +242 +220 051019 023 031 000 00
172930 1644N 07153W 9776 00185 9986 +228 +220 055011 013 032 006 00
173000 1643N 07152W 9771 00188 9986 +231 +220 071014 016 030 000 00
173030 1642N 07151W 9761 00199 9985 +245 +220 075018 019 030 001 03
173100 1641N 07150W 9765 00193 9982 +243 +220 080017 018 030 000 00
173130 1639N 07150W 9768 00189 9981 +245 +220 080016 016 030 000 00
173200 1638N 07149W 9785 00171 9979 +245 +220 077015 017 026 000 03
173230 1636N 07150W 9787 00169 9977 +245 +220 074016 017 030 000 00
173300 1635N 07150W 9786 00169 9976 +245 +220 068016 017 029 000 00
173330 1633N 07150W 9774 00178 9974 +247 +220 043014 015 028 000 00
173400 1631N 07150W 9768 00181 9973 +246 +220 023015 016 029 000 00
$$

48 kt SFMR, 52 kt FL, 997mb pressure...

[Brent]

It's about time!

[HURAKAN]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It looks like it is doing rapid intesification
with the cold cloud tops and will likely be a hurricane
by later today

[HURAKAN]

755
WTNT61 KNHC 281738
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
140 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007


REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS NEAR 50 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT
APPROXIMATELY 200 PM EDT...AND THE SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL
TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

________________________

If you didn't see it!

[Cyclone1]

I wouldn't go so far as to say hurricane by today, but you never know.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX04 KWBC 281731
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN   16L

INITIAL TIME  12Z OCT 28

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            16.4             72.4           300./ 5.0
   6            16.7             72.3            11./ 3.8
  12            17.6             72.6           341./ 9.1
  18            18.4             73.4           315./11.4
  24            19.1             74.2           312./10.5
  30            19.6             74.9           304./ 8.0
  36            20.3             75.1           347./ 7.1
  42            21.0             75.1             1./ 7.2
  48            21.8             75.1             2./ 7.4
  54            22.6             75.1             0./ 8.0
  60            23.5             75.2           351./ 9.1
  66            23.9             75.4           336./ 4.5
  72            24.5             75.3            12./ 5.9
  78            25.0             75.0            27./ 6.4
  84            25.8             74.5            35./ 8.5
  90            26.8             74.0            25./11.4
  96            28.0             73.8             7./12.4
 102            29.1             73.6            10./10.9
 108            30.1             73.1            30./10.5
 114            31.2             72.1            39./14.0
 120            32.6             70.5            49./19.5
 126            34.5             68.2            51./27.6


Nothing for South Florida from the 12z GFDL.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 281747
AF303 0116A CYCLONE1 HDOB 04 20071028
173430 1630N 07150W 9770 00178 9972 +249 +220 355015 016 028 000 00
173500 1628N 07150W 9769 00180 9973 +250 +220 327018 020 028 000 00
173530 1626N 07150W 9772 00179 9975 +249 +220 311021 022 033 000 00
173600 1624N 07149W 9769 00187 9978 +247 +220 301024 025 999 999 03
173630 1623N 07148W 9774 00181 9979 +249 +220 282025 026 034 000 00
173700 1623N 07146W 9774 00183 9980 +250 +220 268025 026 034 000 00
173730 1622N 07145W 9767 00192 9982 +250 +220 256027 028 034 000 00
173800 1621N 07143W 9769 00191 9985 +247 +220 248029 031 038 000 00
173830 1620N 07141W 9777 00186 9988 +245 +220 239029 030 034 000 00
173900 1620N 07140W 9768 00197 9990 +243 +220 235031 031 035 000 00
173930 1619N 07138W 9768 00198 9993 +240 +220 235030 031 036 000 00
174000 1618N 07137W 9770 00200 9995 +240 +220 230028 030 035 000 03
174030 1618N 07135W 9764 00205 9996 +239 +220 225030 030 999 999 03
174100 1620N 07134W 9772 00198 9995 +239 +220 218029 030 036 000 03
174130 1622N 07134W 9771 00196 9993 +239 +220 211029 029 037 000 00
174200 1623N 07134W 9769 00197 9991 +239 +220 206029 030 038 000 00
174230 1625N 07134W 9771 00193 9989 +240 +220 199029 030 039 000 00
174300 1627N 07133W 9770 00193 9988 +240 +220 189029 030 038 000 00
174330 1629N 07133W 9771 00191 9986 +240 +220 180028 029 039 000 00
174400 1631N 07133W 9771 00191 9987 +240 +220 175027 029 036 000 00
$$
;

Broad pressure gradient it appears...

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

TNT80 EGRR 281710



 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



 AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.10.2007



   TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN    ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N  72.3W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162007



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 28.10.2007  16.3N  72.3W   MODERATE

 00UTC 29.10.2007  16.7N  72.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 29.10.2007  17.3N  72.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 30.10.2007  19.8N  74.0W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 30.10.2007  21.3N  75.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 31.10.2007  21.6N  78.0W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 31.10.2007  21.1N  79.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 01.11.2007  21.7N  80.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 01.11.2007  22.5N  80.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 02.11.2007  23.2N  79.7W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 02.11.2007  23.5N  80.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 03.11.2007  23.5N  80.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 03.11.2007  23.0N  79.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY




12z UKMET more west than GFDL but no South Florida landfall.

[caneman]

Code: Select all

TNT80 EGRR 281710



 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



 AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.10.2007



   TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN    ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N  72.3W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162007



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 28.10.2007  16.3N  72.3W   MODERATE

 00UTC 29.10.2007  16.7N  72.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 29.10.2007  17.3N  72.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 30.10.2007  19.8N  74.0W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 30.10.2007  21.3N  75.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 31.10.2007  21.6N  78.0W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 31.10.2007  21.1N  79.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 01.11.2007  21.7N  80.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 01.11.2007  22.5N  80.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 02.11.2007  23.2N  79.7W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 02.11.2007  23.5N  80.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 03.11.2007  23.5N  80.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 03.11.2007  23.0N  79.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY




12z UKMET more west than GFDL but no South Florida landfall.

Still a very close call and can't be ruled out either.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 281757
AF303 0116A CYCLONE1 HDOB 05 20071028
174430 1632N 07133W 9774 00188 9986 +240 +220 164028 030 036 000 00
174500 1634N 07133W 9770 00190 9984 +243 +220 154031 031 039 000 00
174530 1636N 07134W 9768 00189 9982 +245 +220 150032 033 039 000 00
174600 1638N 07134W 9772 00184 9981 +244 +220 148033 033 039 000 00
174630 1640N 07134W 9776 00182 9982 +244 +220 145031 032 036 000 00
174700 1641N 07134W 9771 00186 9981 +244 +220 141033 035 038 000 00
174730 1643N 07134W 9771 00186 9980 +245 +220 139035 036 040 000 00
174800 1645N 07134W 9775 00184 9982 +248 +220 136032 034 039 000 00
174830 1647N 07134W 9771 00190 9986 +247 +220 134029 030 036 000 03
174900 1648N 07136W 9766 00196 9986 +246 +220 129029 030 999 999 03
174930 1647N 07138W 9771 00190 9985 +248 +220 122027 028 036 000 00
175000 1647N 07139W 9768 00191 9984 +245 +220 121028 029 035 000 00
175030 1646N 07141W 9771 00188 9983 +244 +220 120028 028 036 000 00
175100 1645N 07142W 9769 00189 9983 +245 +220 121025 026 035 000 00
175130 1645N 07144W 9771 00186 9981 +246 +220 120024 024 034 000 00
175200 1644N 07146W 9768 00188 9981 +245 +220 111022 023 032 000 00
175230 1643N 07147W 9768 00188 9981 +245 +220 105020 022 029 000 03
175300 1642N 07148W 9776 00180 9979 +245 +220 097018 019 032 000 00
175330 1640N 07149W 9771 00182 9978 +243 +220 090017 018 032 000 00
175400 1639N 07150W 9768 00184 9976 +241 +220 085016 017 029 000 00
$$

[HURAKAN]

[fci]

My, my a spirited board today!!

I don't think that this will affect South Florida but it is too early to completely write it off.
Lets see the turn happen first before we start celebrating.

I will say that if it makes the turn, as predicted; the effects on South Florida will be an increased gradient due to the interaction of the high north and the low south/east. Rain will be little if any since we will be on the NW side of the storm.

Too many are forecasting the turn early to expect an effect here but I will not rest easy until it happens.

[Cyclenall]

They had better!

But if they don't have recon, I think the NHC has no choice but to upgrade, they're only fooling themselves, it's obviously a tropical storm and they know it.

Those are my exact thoughts. Mark my words, this was a tropical storm at 8:00 am EST at least and I couldn't believe it wasn't Noel officially but I knew it had to be. Now they're going to find with recon winds up to like 50 knots. The discussion at 11:00 am on the reasoning behind keeping the cyclone as a TD wasn't good. The only logic was the NHC was careful not to upgrade because there is always that slim chance (extremely slim in this case) that it isn't a storm yet and waited on recon. Problems crop up if there is a mistake. Post storm report should show a TS well before 11:00 am EST.

At this rate of RI, it could be a hurricane by five... becoming only the second hurricane in history to skip tropical status on full advisories.

Wow... But still a bit early to call that.

This crossed my mind this morning but I don't think it will reach hurricane strength that quickly. If it was over water completely, then more likely yes. I'm worried about the land affecting Noel, and the flooding that could be deadly.

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

It looks like it is doing rapid intesification
with the cold cloud tops and will likely be a hurricane
by later today

I wouldn't assume that it's intensifying rapidly. In fact, convection appears to have been decreasing over the past few hours. What we know now is that this was most likely a TS overnight.