NIO- Deep Depression (TC 05A) in Arabian Sea

[Chacor]

WTIO21 PGTW 271400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
060 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 67.4E TO 11.1N 64.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 271200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.3N 67.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8N
89.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 67.2E, APPROXIMATELY 935 NM EAST OF
CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS, WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AS SEEN IN
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 270132Z QUIKSCAT PASS
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH CENTRAL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
STRONGER WINDS (AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS) WITHIN A DEGREE OF THE CENTER,
PRIMARILY WITHIN THE REGION OF STRONGEST CONVECTION. CONVECTION REMAINS
PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED DUE
TO GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AS THE SYSTEM LIES NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB. DUE TO THE
CONTINUING CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND THE INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281400Z.//

[P.K.]

The ECMWF has consistently been showing development in this region for several days. At the moment it is a well marked low pressure area which is forecast to at least become a depression,

FQIN01 DEMS 270900

---------------------------------------------------
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 12 HOURS. FROM 27/10/ 2007 0900 UTC 27 OCT 2007
====================================================
PART -I : NO STORM WARNING(.)

PART-II :YESTERDAYS WELL MARK LOPAR OVER LKDP AREA & ADJ
SE ARABIAN SEA NOW LIES OVER SE AR SEA (.)
ASSOCIATED CYCIR EXTDS UPTO MTLS (.)
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION (.)
A LOPAR HAS FORMED OVER SE BAY OF BENGAL (.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER MET AREA (VIII) (.)
PART III : FORECAST

A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 14 DEG.N AND W OF 80 DEG.E
I)WIND:NW/W 15/20 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE N OF 09 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY : POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA :SLIGHT TO MODERATE (.)

ARB :A2 ARABIAN SEA N. OF 14 DEG N.AND W OF 80 DEG E.(.)
I)WIND :N/NE 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER :SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY : POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA : SMOOTH TO SLIGHT (.)

BOB : A3 BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 10 DEG.N AND E OF 80 DEG.E(.)
I) WIND : SW 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO THE EAST OF 86 DEG.E (.)
II) WEATEHR :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY OOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA :SMOOTH TO SLIGHT (.)

BOB A4 : BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG.N (.)
I) WIND :NE/E 10/15 KTS (.)
II) WEATHER:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TO THE S OF 15 DEG N(.)
REST AREA WX SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III) VISIBILTY : POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA : SMOOTH TO SLIGHT (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

[CrazyC83]

How far off normal has the North Indian season been?

[Squarethecircle]

I don't think it was that far off average, except perhaps for Gonu.
Yeah, about one above average so far, but Gonu was quite anomalous.

[RL3AO]

Gonu was a freak of nature where the entire world got lucky it missed the Strait of Hormuz.

[HURAKAN]

Twins!!!

[CrazyC83]

SSD had T2.0 at last update.

[CrazyC83]

Gonu was a freak of nature where the entire world got lucky it missed the Strait of Hormuz.

What would have happened if it had hit it?

[RL3AO]

Gonu was a freak of nature where the entire world got lucky it missed the Strait of Hormuz.

What would have happened if it had hit it?

Gas would have been $4 every where. 90% of the worlds oil goes through the strait of hormuz.

[RattleMan]

TC05A:

814
WTIO31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271351Z OCT 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 10.6N 66.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 66.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 10.7N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 10.5N 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 10.6N 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 11.0N 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 66.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM EAST
OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 2.5/2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES AND RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT SYSTEM INTENSITY HAS REACHED
35 KNOT WARNING CRITERIA. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, WHICH IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN A 280052Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE. TC 05A IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. THE RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN GENERALLY
WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH TAU 48. THE STORM IS UNDER MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THIS LESS THAN OPTIMAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AMPLE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL OVERCOME THE
NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF SHEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THIS WARNING SUPER-
SEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 271351Z OCT 07 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 271400). MAXIMUM SIGNIFI-
CANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
281500Z AND 290300Z.//

[Chacor]

BOB 08/2007/01 DATED: 28 October 2007



Sub: (1) Depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay

of Bengal and

(2) Depression over southeast Arabian Sea.



(1) A depression has formed over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 2330 hours IST of 27th October 2007 over the same area near Lat. 11.50N and Long. 85.50E, about 600 km east-southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction.




Under its influence, rain / thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places are likely over Tamilnadu & Pudducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hours. Scattered rain / thundershowers are also likely over remaining parts of south Peninsular India during the same period.


Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely along and off Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 24 hours. Sea condition rough to very rough.


Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 24 hours.



(2) Another well marked low pressure area over southeast Arabian sea concentrated into a depression and lay centred at 2330 Hrs IST of 27th October 2007 near lat 10.50 N and long 66.50 E. it likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction initially. Sea condition rough to very rough over south Arabian sea.

[Chacor]

This is the other depression:

[P.K.]

BOB 08/2007/02 DATED: 28 October 2007



Sub: (1) Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal and

(2) Deep Depression over southeast Arabian Sea.



(1) Yesterday’s depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 28th October 2007 over the southwest Bay of Bengal near Lat. 11.50N and Long. 84.50E, about 480 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross north Tamil Nadu-South Andhra Pradesh Coast between Pudducherry and Kavali by tomorrow, the 29th October evening.




Under its influence, rain / thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places are likely over Tamilnadu & Pudducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during next 48 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also likely over South Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the same period.


Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely along and off Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 48 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off TamilNadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours.



(2) The depression over southeast Arabian Sea remained practically stationary and intensified into a deep depression. It lay centred at 0830 Hrs IST of 28th October 2007 near lat 10.50 N and long 66.50 E. It likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction initially. Sea condition rough to very rough over south Arabian sea.



As the deep depression is expected to move west-northwestwards, it is not likely to affect Indian coast. However, the system is under constant watch.

[CrazyC83]

28/0830 UTC 12.2N 83.0E T2.0/2.0 99B -- Bay of Bengal
28/0830 UTC 11.3N 66.6E T2.5/2.5 05A -- Arabian Sea

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 OCT 2007 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 11:27:11 N Lon : 65:50:48 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 997.0mb/ 35.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -7.8C Cloud Region Temp : -41.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.42 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[CrazyC83]

99B is on land now, while 05A is definitely a tropical storm:

28/2030 UTC 11.6N 65.6E T3.0/3.0 05A -- Arabian Sea

[P.K.]

BOB 08/2007/05 Dated: 29 October, 2007


Sub: (1) Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal and


(2) Deep Depression over southeast Arabian Sea.



(1) The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved north-northwestwards and lay centred at 2330 hours IST of 28th October 2007 over the southwest Bay of Bengal near Lat. 13.50N and Long. 81.50E, about 200 km southeast of Nellore. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross north Tamil Nadu–south Andhra Pradesh coast between Chennai and Kavali close to Nellore around noon of today, the 29th October 2007.


Under its influence, rain / thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places are likely over Tamilnadu & Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during next 48 hours. Isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cm or more) are also likely over north coastal Tamil Nadu and south Coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over South Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the same period.


Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely along and off Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 24 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 24 hours.


(2) The deep depression over southeast Arabian Sea remained practically stationary and lay centred at 2330 hrs IST of 28th October 2007 near lat 11.50N and long 66.00E. It is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a west-northwesterly direction. Sea condition will be rough to very rough around system centre.


As the deep depression is expected to move west-northwestwards, it is not likely to affect Indian coast. However, the system is under constant watch.

[CrazyC83]

Tropical storm according to the JTWC:

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 11.4N 65.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 65.9E

[RattleMan]

BOB 08/2007/08 Dated: 29 October, 2007

Sub: (1) Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal weakened into a well marked low pressure area.
(2) Deep Depression over Southeast Arabian Sea.

(1) The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved slightly northwestwards and weakened into a well marked low pressure area and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 29th October 2007 over west central Bay and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal, north coastal Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Under its influence, rain/thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places are likely over south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during next 24 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over south Tamil Nadu, south Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the same period.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely along and off Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during the same period.

This is the last bulletin for this system.

(2) The deep depression over southeast Arabian Sea moved slightly westwards and lay centred at 0830 Hours IST of today, the 29th October, 2007 near lat 11.5 Deg. N and Long. 65.5 Deg. E. It is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction. Sea condition will be rough to very rough around the system centre.

As the deep depression is expected to move west-north-westerly, it is not likely to affect indian coast. However, the system is under constant watch.

[Chacor]