Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 282352
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

...NOEL MEANDERING...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...215 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
310 MILES...500 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

NOEL HAS BEEN MEANDERING...WITH LITTLE OVERALL MOTION...OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7
KM/HR...IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF NOEL WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHWESTERN HAITI BY EARLY
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...16.7 N...71.8 W.
MOVEMENT...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[HURAKAN]

WTNT31 KNHC 282352
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...16.7 N...71.8 W.
MOVEMENT...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

NOEL HAS BEEN MEANDERING...WITH LITTLE OVERALL MOTION...OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS.



The above from the 8 PM Intermidiate Advisory.

[Blown Away]

Little S and E of the 5pm position.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anybody else think Noel may be forming a partial eyewall, Northeast quadrant?

South of the 'pointy peninsula' of the DR?

Hard to tell but I don't see anything looking like an eye that is visible. Maybe inside the clouds there is an eyewall forming though...

No warm spot, but it looks like colder cloud tops have formed a partial arc looking at rainbow IR loop.

[Derek Ortt]

latest GFDL has a sub 950mb cane making a direct hit on Halifax in about 5 days

New England should monitor this as the GFDL has this hooking a left at Canadian landfall

[Derek Ortt]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Vortex]

yes..hints of an eye forming. Last hour or so...

[tolakram]

MIMIC



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... npage.html

[Vortex]

18Z UKMET turns Noel back west

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[Vortex]

18Z UKMET turns Noel back west

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 00:15 UTC:

[Vortex]

015 utc confirms warm spot developing. I'd say Noel is a 65-70mph storm with a pressure around 993mb. Should be designated a hurricane late tonight if it remains offshore and trends continue. Nearly stationary...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post IS NOT OFFICIAL and should not be
used as such and it is not endorsed by storm2k. For official
see the NHC.

It's stalling. That means if it stalls the front may miss it then
it goes west once the ridge builds back after the front
and may get into the western caribbean and be a much
greater threat to FLorida. Better Watch Closely if you
live in Florida. If the first front misses it
it may get into the western caribbean where a
second front may push it into FL. This
is getting a bit scarier.
Hooowwwlloooween????:eek:

[Derek Ortt]

that is incredibly sensationalist, Tampa Bay

To say that this is such a threat is over the top, IMO. This stall likely means farther east, maybe if we get lucky, this will even miss Canada

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

but doesn't the ridge behind the first front push it west
derek? How would it go east? And if it does go in the
west carib. it has favorable conditions...high heat content
water and little shear...

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

The center seems to be in the "corner" east of that red spot, at least from my viewpoint...

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 290021
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0021 UTC MON OCT 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NOEL (AL162007) 20071029 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071029 0000 071029 1200 071030 0000 071030 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 72.0W 18.5N 73.5W 20.0N 74.9W 21.1N 76.4W
BAMD 16.9N 72.0W 18.0N 73.0W 19.5N 74.0W 20.6N 74.9W
BAMM 16.9N 72.0W 18.2N 73.4W 19.7N 74.6W 20.7N 75.7W
LBAR 16.9N 72.0W 17.9N 72.9W 19.6N 73.7W 21.2N 74.4W
SHIP 50KTS 59KTS 67KTS 74KTS
DSHP 50KTS 52KTS 66KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071031 0000 071101 0000 071102 0000 071103 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.8N 77.6W 22.5N 78.7W 22.9N 78.2W 23.5N 79.1W
BAMD 21.6N 75.6W 24.3N 75.3W 29.2N 71.2W 36.0N 60.2W
BAMM 21.5N 76.7W 23.3N 76.7W 26.2N 74.1W 28.9N 69.4W
LBAR 22.8N 74.6W 25.1N 74.3W 27.4N 72.1W 31.3N 66.3W
SHIP 82KTS 89KTS 82KTS 60KTS
DSHP 66KTS 74KTS 66KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 72.0W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 71.6W DIRM12 = 327DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 71.2W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 996MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 75NM

[RL3AO]

I don't know. That warm spot is quite a bit NE of the 8pm estimated center. But it is an estimated center.