Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Derek Ortt]

not even close to the center

[HURAKAN]

Latest computer models:

[Derek Ortt]

this front is not really what turns it, there is a second one coming down

[GCANE]

85GHz Radar doesn't show any eye at this point.

[HURAKAN]

That was three hours ago!

[Vortex]

G..look at the time that was taken...The eye only first began to show itself in the last hour...

[MiamiensisWx]

this front is not really what turns it, there is a second one coming down

That sounds vaguely similar to Flora in 1963 with respect to the UA pattern and possible path/movement of Noel.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1963/FLORA/track.gif

By the way, the partial eyewall signature has eroded. Additionally, there was never any "eye" feature on satellite and microwave data.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2007_16L/webManager/last48hrs.gif

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

ok thanks derek.

[HURAKAN]

Loop:



The "feature" is also visible in this infrared loop.

[MiamiensisWx]

ok thanks derek.

Please remove the hype that has been evident in several posts. It is akin to stating, "The 0-8 Dolphins have a good chance to reach the Super Bowl in 2007!"

[HURAKAN]

ok thanks derek.

Please remove the hype that has been evident in several posts. It is akin to stating, "The 0-8 Dolphins have a good chance to reach the Super Bowl in 2007!"

He's stating what he thinks and that's ok if he can back it up with some sort of understanding and/or evidence.

I can also say that the Marlins will win the WS in 2008, but that is most likely a wrong statement.

[MiamiensisWx]

He's stating what he thinks and that's ok if he can back it up with some sort of understanding and/or evidence.

I can also say that the Marlins will win the WS in 2008, but that is most likely a wrong statement.

I agree, but I would appreciate more evidence besides "warm waters" and "low shear".

1) We all know tropical cyclogenesis requires many additional factors besides "warm waters" (Epsilon '05 formed over lower oceanic heat content because of favorable UA conditions and reduced shear)
2) What synoptics will reduce the current shear over Noel?

[Vortex]

FSU 12Z

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation

[Vortex]

Maybe TBH saw this run...Several models like it...

[Vortex]

045utc confirms the eye. Nearly stationary and there is no doubt about it...

[DESTRUCTION5]

:uarrow: Maybe TBH saw this run...Several models like it...

Yea I doubt this is the case Vortex but im in the same park and would like to know why all of a sudden is everyone all in with the GFDL?

Its been garbage this year.

[alan1961]

Another sheared system going nowhere, the story of the season so far..( apart from Dean and Felix of course )

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

ok thanks derek.

Please remove the hype that has been evident in several posts. It is akin to stating, "The 0-8 Dolphins have a good chance to reach the Super Bowl in 2007!"

Sorry about that I got excited...
I have the habit of getting hyperactive everytime there is a
possibility for something "exciting"...because most of my
life is boring anyways LOL
Experiencing wild weather makes up for the excitement I am
deprived of because of my very poor social life....I don't know why
but the last 7 years have been almost no social life for me...
and at 19 I get very lonely and feel like nature is the only
thing that can really influence me...

I just mean that if it goes west it will be over high heat
content waters and the shear is low in the western caribbean
because of some sort of anticyclone...

now that might not happen at all...but tropics can do wild
things....

[Vortex]

Folks,

This is undergoing intensification. An eye is evident and it's nearly stationary. This may produce flooding of biblical proportions for DR/Haiti.

[RL3AO]

I still say that warm spot is too far NE to be the center.