Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 290256
AF303 0216A NOEL HDOB 01 20071029
024500 1742N 06448W 0134 00000 0123 +250 +205 360000 000 999 999 23
024530 1742N 06448W 0134 00000 0127 +250 +206 360000 000 999 999 23
024600 1742N 06448W 0135 00000 0131 +250 +206 360000 000 999 999 23
024630 1742N 06448W 0135 00000 0132 +250 +207 360000 000 999 999 23
024700 1742N 06448W 0135 00000 0134 +250 +208 360000 000 999 999 23
024730 1742N 06448W 0134 00000 0132 +250 +208 360000 000 999 999 23
024800 1742N 06448W 0136 00000 0135 +245 +209 360000 000 999 999 23
024830 1742N 06448W 0135 00000 0132 +245 +209 360000 000 999 999 23
024900 1742N 06448W 0135 00003 0137 +241 +209 360000 000 999 999 03
024930 1742N 06448W 0134 00000 0133 +248 +220 360000 000 999 999 23
025000 1742N 06448W 0136 00000 0134 +252 +222 360000 000 999 999 23
025030 1742N 06448W 0137 00000 0137 +238 +222 360000 000 999 999 03
025100 1742N 06448W 0135 00000 0136 +235 +222 360000 000 999 999 03
025130 1742N 06448W 0135 00000 0134 +235 +225 360000 000 999 999 23
025200 1742N 06448W 0134 00000 0132 +235 +227 360000 000 999 999 23
025230 1742N 06448W 0134 00000 0132 +232 +225 360000 000 999 999 23
025300 1742N 06448W 0132 00000 0131 +230 +220 360000 000 999 999 23
025330 1742N 06448W 0131 00000 0131 +230 +221 360000 000 999 999 23
025400 1742N 06448W 0133 00000 0132 +230 +223 360000 000 999 999 23
025430 1742N 06448W 0134 00000 0132 +230 +223 360000 000 999 999 23
$$
;

On the runway at St. Croix.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 290306
AF303 0216A NOEL HDOB 02 20071029
025500 1742N 06448W 0132 00000 0131 +230 +224 360000 000 999 999 23
025530 1742N 06448W 0131 00000 0131 +230 +226 360000 000 999 999 23
025600 1742N 06448W 0130 00000 0129 +228 +225 360000 000 999 999 23
025630 1742N 06448W 0128 00000 0128 +229 +225 360000 000 999 999 23
025700 1742N 06448W 0127 00001 0129 +226 +226 360000 000 999 999 03
025730 1742N 06448W 0124 00000 0128 +225 +225 360000 000 999 999 03
025800 1742N 06449W 0120 00012 0136 +225 +225 360000 000 999 999 03
025830 1742N 06449W 0118 00017 0140 +225 +225 360000 000 999 999 03
025900 1742N 06449W 0115 00021 0140 +225 +223 360000 000 999 999 03
025930 1742N 06449W 0114 00021 0139 +223 +220 360000 000 999 999 03
030000 1742N 06449W 0109 00023 0141 +224 +218 360000 000 999 999 03
030030 1742N 06449W 0108 00026 0142 +225 +216 360000 000 999 999 03
030100 1742N 06449W 0114 00026 0145 +225 +218 360000 000 999 999 03
030130 1742N 06449W 0114 00026 0144 +225 +216 360000 000 999 999 03
030200 1742N 06449W 0114 00023 0142 +223 +216 360000 000 999 999 03
030230 1742N 06449W 0114 00021 0140 +220 +214 360000 000 999 999 03
030300 1742N 06449W 0114 00020 0139 +220 +215 360000 000 999 999 03
030330 1742N 06449W 0114 00023 0142 +220 +212 360000 000 999 999 03
030400 1742N 06449W 0114 00020 0140 +220 +212 360000 000 999 999 03
030430 1742N 06449W 0114 00020 0139 +220 +211 360000 000 999 999 03
$$
;

Fasten your seatbelts - the plane is taking off for Tropical Storm Noel!!!

[JonathanBelles]

Forecast posted: viewtopic.php?p=1660042#p1660042

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 290316
AF303 0216A NOEL HDOB 03 20071029
030500 1742N 06449W 0115 00021 0139 +220 +211 360000 000 999 999 03
030530 1742N 06449W 0114 00021 0138 +225 +211 360000 000 999 999 03
030600 1742N 06449W 0114 00023 0142 +225 +210 360000 000 999 999 03
030630 1742N 06449W 0112 00021 0139 +222 +219 275002 006 999 999 03
030700 1742N 06448W 0026 00068 0123 +225 +224 254011 013 999 999 03
030730 1743N 06447W 9698 00353 0100 +230 +222 164010 013 999 999 03
030800 1744N 06446W 9325 00684 0087 +206 +206 155012 015 999 999 03
030830 1745N 06445W 8915 01061 0068 +188 +183 162013 015 999 999 03
030900 1746N 06447W 8516 01425 0037 +165 +165 158016 024 999 999 03
030930 1747N 06449W 8218 01710 0027 +151 +146 147024 026 999 999 05
031000 1747N 06450W 7824 02103 9990 +129 +999 161028 029 999 999 05
031030 1748N 06452W 7516 02426 9990 +109 +999 167032 033 999 999 05
031100 1748N 06454W 7194 02772 9990 +087 +999 172035 036 999 999 05
031130 1749N 06456W 6937 03064 9990 +063 +999 165035 036 999 999 05
031200 1749N 06458W 6632 03406 9899 +052 +052 149025 026 999 999 03
031230 1750N 06500W 6414 03670 9894 +032 +032 135024 025 999 999 03
031300 1750N 06502W 6204 03926 9880 +013 +013 129023 023 999 999 03
031330 1751N 06504W 5997 04182 9846 +006 +006 137023 024 999 999 03
031400 1751N 06506W 5804 04428 9809 +000 +000 131023 024 999 999 03
031430 1752N 06507W 5616 04687 9799 -015 -015 128025 026 999 999 03
$$
;

In the air now.

[Sanibel]

I guess poleward is more likely after a stall with a front to the west. But these things can break in weird directions from a stall sometimes. Is it pinned under a wedge of ridge?

[caribepr]

Recon is in the air now...it will be interesting to see what they find out...maybe clear up some of the uncertainty.

[cycloneye]

Recon is in the air now...it will be interesting to see what they find out...maybe clear up some of the uncertainty.

Yes mj,data from the plane will answer the two most important questions,where is the center and how strong is NOEL.

[fci]

My hunch was correct. Models have predictably shifted further east with a better handle on the strong shear and slower motion. I think the threat to the United States has sharply diminished.

You have been on record saying that there was no threat to the US since you predicted that the system would not survive Hispanola.

Not discounting that it may not survive but how many hunches do you have?

You are confusing me!

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Humm...00Z getting interesting

Bend back west looks Evident thru 3 days

[Derek Ortt]

model NCEP is so far out to lunch with this system.

It's solution is not worth the paper it is printed on

[DESTRUCTION5]

model NCEP is so far out to lunch with this system.

It's solution is not worth the paper it is printed on

Correct me if im wrong but is the GFDL and HWRF not based off NCEP and GFS? And are these not what you are deriving your track from?

[sponger]

Could be a great wave maker for Florida

[CourierPR]

Local WFOR Chief Met, David Bernard, spoke about the possibility of Noel missing the dip in the jetstream and meandering during the week.

[MiamiensisWx]

You have been on record saying that there was no threat to the US since you predicted that the system would not survive Hispanola.

Not discounting that it may not survive but how many hunches do you have?

You are confusing me!

Well, I added "diminished threat" because of the uncertainities. Additionally, I meant the same thing. "Diminished threat" supports my previous contention about dissipation over Hispaniola. My "hunch" said the models would shift further east because of the slower motion, higher shear, and adjacent upper low's influence; the latest model guidance indicates an eastward shift among some members (models).

[bocadude86]

The pressure gradient will likely produce tropical storm force winds in S Fla

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 290422
AF303 0216A NOEL1 HDOB 04 20071029
041000 1803N 06634W 3926 07616 0309 -169 +999 159017 017 999 999 05
041030 1803N 06637W 3926 07574 0280 -170 +999 158018 019 999 999 05
041100 1804N 06640W 3926 07585 0269 -168 +999 154021 021 999 999 05
041130 1804N 06643W 3926 07569 0270 -166 +999 149023 024 999 999 05
041200 1804N 06646W 3926 07345 0149 -165 +999 151024 025 999 999 05
041230 1805N 06649W 3926 07494 0162 -165 +999 153023 024 999 999 05
041300 1805N 06652W 3926 07571 0152 -165 +999 148021 022 999 999 05
041330 1805N 06654W 3926 07727 0276 -165 +999 141020 022 999 999 05
041400 1806N 06657W 3926 07720 0408 -166 +999 145022 023 999 999 05
041430 1806N 06700W 3927 07724 0412 -165 +999 145020 021 999 999 05
041500 1806N 06703W 3925 07737 0419 -165 +999 146018 019 999 999 05
041530 1807N 06706W 3926 07734 0423 -165 +999 149016 017 999 999 05
041600 1807N 06709W 3926 07733 0417 -165 +999 153015 017 999 999 05
041630 1807N 06712W 3926 07727 0410 -165 +999 141015 017 138 000 05
041700 1808N 06715W 3926 07723 0407 -165 +999 113016 017 042 000 01
041730 1808N 06718W 3926 07725 0409 -165 +999 122016 017 028 001 01
041800 1808N 06721W 3927 07718 0403 -164 +999 124018 021 029 000 01
041830 1809N 06723W 3927 07710 0395 -164 +999 131014 016 028 002 01
041900 1809N 06726W 3924 07693 0376 -165 +999 113016 018 030 000 01
041930 1810N 06729W 3924 07684 0367 -165 +999 108019 020 030 000 01
$$
;

After an hour of no data, now we know where they are.

[fci]

Probably not sustained if it is as far off the coast as the forecast seems to be taking it.

24-35 tops with gusts not much higher is my guess

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 290432
AF303 0216A NOEL1 HDOB 05 20071029
042000 1810N 06732W 3926 07673 0358 -164 +999 100020 020 029 000 01
042030 1810N 06735W 3926 07667 0352 -163 +999 121019 019 030 000 01
042100 1810N 06738W 3926 07666 0350 -162 +999 131018 019 030 000 01
042130 1811N 06741W 3926 07668 0360 -165 +999 145018 019 031 000 01
042200 1811N 06744W 3924 07709 0392 -165 +999 144017 019 030 000 01
042230 1811N 06747W 3926 07704 0389 -165 +999 126016 017 029 000 01
042300 1812N 06750W 3925 07700 0384 -165 +999 135018 020 029 000 01
042330 1812N 06752W 3924 07699 0382 -165 +999 142021 022 030 000 01
042400 1812N 06755W 3926 07698 0381 -165 +999 145023 023 030 000 01
042430 1813N 06758W 3924 07698 0380 -165 +999 149025 025 030 000 05
042500 1812N 06801W 3925 07695 0379 -165 +999 150024 025 022 000 05
042530 1811N 06803W 3926 07694 0379 -162 +999 145022 023 025 000 01
042600 1809N 06806W 3924 07695 0379 -164 +999 143020 021 026 000 01
042630 1808N 06808W 3925 07697 0379 -165 +999 149021 021 028 000 01
042700 1806N 06810W 3924 07695 0378 -164 +999 149021 021 027 000 01
042730 1805N 06813W 3926 07693 0377 -16f7G&&6W
042800 1803N 06815W 3924 07694 0377 -165 +999 151017 017 030 000 01
042830 1802N 06817W 3926 07693 0377 -165 +999 157015 015 030 000 01
042900 1800N 06820W 3924 07695 0377 -165 +999 159015 016 031 000 01
042930 1759N 06822W 3925 07694 0378 -165 +999 166012 013 031 000 01
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 290442
AF303 0216A NOEL1 HDOB 06 20071029
043000 1757N 06824W 3926 07694 0378 -165 +999 175011 011 032 000 01
043030 1756N 06826W 3924 07694 0378 -165 +999 177006 009 033 000 01
043100 1755N 06829W 3924 07697 0379 -167 +999 201005 005 032 000 01
043130 1753N 06831W 3924 07695 0379 -168 +999 206006 006 032 000 01
043200 1752N 06833W 3926 07690 0376 -165 +999 211006 006 032 000 01
043230 1750N 06836W 3924 07695 0377 -165 +999 226005 006 031 000 01
043300 1749N 06838W 3926 07694 0378 -165 +999 208007 009 031 000 01
043330 1747N 06840W 3926 07694 0377 -164 +999 190012 013 031 000 01
043400 1746N 06842W 3924 07694 0376 -161 +999 208008 010 032 000 01
043430 1744N 06845W 3926 07692 0376 -155 +999 213009 009 033 000 01
043500 1743N 06847W 3924 07692 0375 -161 +999 194009 011 032 000 01
043530 1741N 06849W 3926 07688 0374 -163 +999 198014 015 033 000 01
043600 1740N 06851W 3924 07690 0372 -162 +999 197016 017 032 000 01
043630 1739N 06854W 3924 07687 0370 -160 +999 200012 014 034 000 01
043700 1737N 06856W 3926 07683 0369 -158 +999 189009 010 033 000 05
043730 1736N 06858W 3923 07689 0368 -157 +999 181011 013 034 001 05
043800 1735N 06901W 3925 07683 0368 -156 +999 169014 017 034 000 05
043830 1735N 06904W 3924 07684 0367 -157 +999 176015 016 035 000 01
043900 1734N 06906W 3927 07679 0367 -158 +999 192015 016 034 000 01
043930 1734N 06909W 3926 07681 0367 -155 +999 207015 019 035 000 01
$$

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 290452
AF303 0216A NOEL1 HDOB 07 20071029
044000 1733N 06912W 3929 07675 0365 -156 +999 226019 020 034 000 01
044030 1733N 06914W 3923 07684 0365 -159 +999 235018 019 035 000 05
044100 1732N 06916W 3923 07687 0367 -162 +999 228019 021 030 000 05
044130 1730N 06918W 3924 07687 0368 -161 +999 232022 023 034 000 01
044200 1728N 06920W 3924 07687 0368 -163 +999 236021 022 034 001 01
044230 1727N 06922W 3924 07687 0369 -160 +999 235019 020 035 002 01
044300 1725N 06925W 3926 07685 0369 -160 +999 233018 019 034 002 01
044330 1724N 06927W 3924 07685 0369 -162 +999 231020 021 035 000 01
044400 1722N 06929W 3924 07688 0370 -164 +999 231020 020 033 000 01
044430 1720N 06931W 3925 07685 0369 -163 +999 230019 020 030 000 01
044500 1719N 06933W 3924 07688 0370 -172 +999 214023 026 031 000 01
044530 1717N 06935W 3925 07684 0368 -185 +999 211024 025 029 000 01
044600 1716N 06937W 3925 07684 0368 -184 +999 206023 024 029 000 01
044630 1714N 06939W 3926 07684 0368 -174 +999 201022 023 031 000 01
044700 1713N 06941W 3924 07688 0370 -161 +999 206019 020 031 000 01
044730 1711N 06943W 3926 07684 0370 -162 +999 215020 021 031 000 01
044800 1710N 06945W 3926 07685 0369 -163 +999 229018 019 031 000 01
044830 1708N 06947W 3948 07650 0374 -161 +999 235016 018 032 000 01
044900 1707N 06949W 4054 07455 0365 -149 +999 230018 020 032 000 01
044930 1705N 06951W 4149 07277 0354 -144 +999 219023 025 032 001 01
$$

Beginning the descent.