Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[storm4u]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A CHILLY DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY BRINGING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE EXTRATROPICAL
REMNANTS OF NOEL ARE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCH.&&


i still think they really dont know where this is going to go.

[NcentralFlaguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A CHILLY DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY BRINGING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE EXTRATROPICAL
REMNANTS OF NOEL ARE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCH.&&


i still think they really dont know where this is going to go.

lol..I dont even think they know where its at, by the way it must be nice to be a sports fan in NE these days...red sox,patriots, boston college, celtics, ...

[ronjon]

Quickscat pass this morning shows low pressure near 16.5N-75W. I think the NHC position is a MLC. Another LLC may form but very uncertain we have a tropical cyclone now.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas20.png

[Derek Ortt]

its not an MLC north fo Haiti, not with those surface obs

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Quickscat pass this morning shows low pressure near 16.5N-75W. I think the NHC position is a MLC. Another LLC may form but very uncertain we have a tropical cyclone now.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas20.png

That's a pretty weak low the QS is showing and this pass didn't even pick up the area where a new LLC might have formed. I agree that a new LLC is not a certainty but I do think there' a pretty good chance one will form.

[wxman57]

Quickscat pass this morning shows low pressure near 16.5N-75W. I think the NHC position is a MLC. Another LLC may form but very uncertain we have a tropical cyclone now.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas20.png

I can actually see a broad open swirl southwest of Haiti on visible loops not far from where the QS image indicated. Possibly the remnant LLC. But surface obs indicate a new LLC has formed north of Haiti.

[wxman57]

its not an MLC north fo Haiti, not with those surface obs

Here's a new surface plot with obs. Surface low appears to be near Great Inagua Island.

[CrazyC83]

When is the next Recon? tonight?

[NcentralFlaguy]

seems like convection starting to fire near or over the new LLC

[TheShrimper]

I agree with the center assesment wxman57, Infact it may slide between Great Inagua and the far eastern coast of Cuba. I hope it deviates to the north as this position and current movement is going to keep SE Fla on pins and needles.

[Ivanhater]

Models picking keep it hanging around the bahamas

[Vortex]

12Z GFS Rolling in...Further West

Could come close to SFL

H+42

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

[HenkL]

New mission en route.

URNT15 KNHC 291545
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 03 20071029
153300 1747N 06501W 7309 02821 0153 +098 +056 152020 020 030 000 03
153330 1748N 06503W 7076 03091 0155 +079 +054 155023 023 029 003 00
153400 1749N 06506W 6853 03363 0169 +059 +045 160021 022 028 002 03
153430 1749N 06508W 6627 03642 0169 +044 +034 172018 019 030 002 00
153500 1750N 06510W 6409 03910 0167 +030 +016 183019 020 030 002 00
153530 1750N 06512W 6207 04176 0149 +026 +003 190022 025 032 000 00
153600 1751N 06514W 6026 04414 0127 +018 -011 185024 025 032 001 00
153630 1751N 06516W 5867 04601 0102 +006 -013 186019 020 035 000 00
153700 1752N 06519W 5708 04821 0107 -008 -020 190017 017 037 000 00
153730 1752N 06521W 5557 05058 0118 -018 -035 194017 017 046 000 00
153800 1753N 06523W 5428 05241 0279 -028 -046 181014 016 042 000 00
153830 1753N 06525W 5310 05413 0290 -038 -052 176013 014 043 000 00
153900 1754N 06527W 5190 05600 0301 -041 -073 171017 018 038 000 03
153930 1754N 06530W 5088 05754 0311 -050 -074 164018 019 047 000 00
154000 1755N 06532W 4986 05916 0321 -059 -077 159016 016 044 000 00
154030 1755N 06534W 4892 06065 0331 -068 -085 157017 017 043 000 00
154100 1755N 06537W 4802 06210 0341 -075 -101 152015 016 044 000 00
154130 1756N 06539W 4715 06352 0350 -086 -111 146014 015 038 000 00
154200 1756N 06541W 4661 06445 0355 -091 -118 135014 015 036 000 00
154230 1757N 06544W 4649 06467 0359 -094 -118 130015 016 052 000 00

[Thunder44]

Quickscat pass this morning shows low pressure near 16.5N-75W. I think the NHC position is a MLC. Another LLC may form but very uncertain we have a tropical cyclone now.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas20.png

I can actually see a broad open swirl southwest of Haiti on visible loops not far from where the QS image indicated. Possibly the remnant LLC. But surface obs indicate a new LLC has formed north of Haiti.

The GFS has been showing that one low would head into the NW Carribean and another would develop north around the Bahamas the last several days. So maybe the old LLC never made landfall in Haiti and continued move west. Perhaps it's really the GFDL wasn't so good on this system after all. At least not the evolution.

[NcentralFlaguy]

When is the next Recon? tonight?

1pm edt I believe sir, someone please correct me if I am wrong.

[JonathanBelles]

When is the next Recon? tonight?

1pm edt I believe sir, someone please correct me if I am wrong.

Its starting now.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 291555
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 04 20071029
154300 1757N 06546W 4652 06462 0360 -095 +999 127016 017 034 000 01
154330 1758N 06549W 4653 06466 0361 -095 +999 125016 016 034 000 01
154400 1759N 06552W 4652 06456 0362 -096 +999 127014 015 051 000 01
154430 1759N 06555W 4655 06474 0328 -095 +999 123016 017 069 000 05
154500 1801N 06557W 4656 06095 0130 -095 -114 126018 019 999 999 03
154530 1802N 06600W 4653 06201 0122 -095 -124 116017 018 999 999 03
154600 1803N 06603W 4653 06319 0173 -095 -122 121016 017 999 999 03
154630 1805N 06605W 4654 05803 5248 -093 -125 126017 018 999 999 03
154700 1807N 06607W 4656 06076 5064 -090 -128 126015 016 999 999 03
154730 1809N 06609W 4654 06027 5083 -092 -128 115014 014 999 999 03
154800 1811N 06611W 4654 06035 5047 -093 -122 132013 013 999 999 03
154830 1813N 06614W 4655 06217 0003 -092 -123 133015 017 999 999 03
154900 1815N 06616W 4655 05812 5225 -090 -125 129018 018 999 999 03
154930 1817N 06618W 4656 05985 5084 -089 -128 126019 020 999 999 03
155000 1819N 06620W 4653 06256 0127 -087 -128 122017 018 999 999 03
155030 1821N 06623W 4655 06305 0197 -086 -127 122016 016 999 999 03
155100 1823N 06625W 4655 06307 0205 -089 -124 125016 018 999 999 03
155130 1825N 06627W 4655 06350 0249 -090 -121 126017 018 999 999 03
155200 1826N 06630W 4656 06409 0312 -090 -120 125017 018 999 999 03
155230 1828N 06632W 4654 06473 0356 -088 -124 124016 016 999 999 03

[NcentralFlaguy]

When is the next Recon? tonight?

1pm edt I believe sir, someone please correct me if I am wrong.

Its starting now.

Thank you sir.

[wxman57]

The GFS has been showing that one low would head into the NW Carribean and another would develop north around the Bahamas the last several days. So maybe the old LLC never made landfall in Haiti and continued move west. Perhaps it's really the GFDL wasn't so good on this system after all. At least not the evolution.

ECMWF shows the same thing - weak low tracking west into NW Caribbean south of Cuba, stronger low along NHC's path.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 291605
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 05 20071029
155300 1830N 06635W 4656 06456 0360 -085 -128 119015 015 144 000 00
155330 1832N 06637W 4653 06461 0363 -085 -129 121014 015 048 000 00
155400 1833N 06640W 4654 06457 0360 -085 -132 120014 014 039 000 00
155430 1835N 06642W 4656 06443 0351 -081 -139 116015 016 034 000 00
155500 1837N 06645W 4654 06449 0351 -084 -136 112014 015 038 000 00
155530 1839N 06647W 4654 06448 0349 -085 -135 105015 016 033 000 00
155600 1841N 06649W 4655 06443 0347 -085 -135 104017 017 033 000 00
155630 1842N 06652W 4684 06404 0353 -085 -130 105019 019 033 000 00
155700 1844N 06654W 4745 06304 0349 -079 -124 108020 020 032 000 00
155730 1846N 06657W 4855 06122 0334 -067 -118 109019 019 032 000 00
155800 1848N 06659W 4926 05995 0316 -061 -109 106019 020 032 000 03
155830 1849N 06702W 5080 05771 0316 -051 -090 107019 020 999 999 03
155900 1851N 06704W 5312 05421 0296 -033 -065 120015 016 999 999 03
155930 1853N 06706W 5561 05056 0134 -022 -041 147019 021 999 999 03
160000 1854N 06708W 5807 04704 0135 -004 -013 155021 021 999 999 03
160030 1856N 06710W 6068 04349 0139 +014 +007 170024 025 999 999 03
160100 1857N 06712W 6316 04018 0143 +029 +017 172027 028 999 999 03
160130 1859N 06715W 6532 03744 0140 +045 +025 170031 033 028 003 03
160200 1900N 06717W 6702 03525 0137 +055 +039 171030 031 029 002 00
160230 1902N 06719W 6870 03321 0134 +067 +053 169029 029 028 002 00

Can someone take over? Got other work to do.