Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 291655
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 10 20071029
164300 2015N 06957W 9875 00199 0103 +240 +227 131029 030 028 004 00
164330 2015N 06959W 9877 00196 0102 +240 +227 129029 029 030 005 00
164400 2015N 07001W 9878 00195 0101 +239 +229 130029 030 025 007 03
164430 2014N 07003W 9869 00202 0101 +235 +228 128027 029 029 005 03
164500 2013N 07004W 9878 00193 0099 +237 +229 128027 029 027 006 00
164530 2012N 07005W 9873 00195 0097 +234 +232 125027 028 030 006 00
164600 2011N 07006W 9879 00189 0095 +234 +232 127028 029 030 008 00
164630 2010N 07008W 9872 00193 0094 +234 +228 125031 033 030 007 00
164700 2010N 07009W 9878 00188 0093 +234 +229 123032 032 030 006 00
164730 2009N 07011W 9876 00189 0092 +232 +229 122032 033 031 008 00
164800 2008N 07012W 9876 00188 0091 +230 +230 121031 032 032 007 00
164830 2007N 07014W 9877 00187 0090 +vf7&7'66&66vV
164900 2007N 07016W 9875 00186 0088 +231 +231 119032 032 032 005 00
164930 2006N 07017W 9879 00182 0087 +232 +232 119031 032 032 006 00
165000 2005N 07019W 9879 00182 0087 +234 +232 121031 032 030 005 00
165030 2004N 07020W 9874 00187 0087 +234 +232 123030 031 031 003 00
165100 2004N 07022W 9877 00184 0088 +235 +230 127031 033 030 004 00
165130 2003N 07024W 9873 00189 0087 +235 +226 129032 033 029 005 00
165200 2002N 07025W 9877 00184 0086 +236 +225 129034 035 031 003 00
165230 2002N 07027W 9879 00181 0085 +235 +225 126033 034 033 001 00
$$
;

35 kt FL, 33 kt SFMR.

[gatorcane]

Perhaps TS watches but Florida may end up on the West (weaker side)...

in any event I am curious how much she responds to the ridge over the next 24-48 hours.....so far she looks to be tracking just a bit west of the NHC track...if the bend to the west happens earlier I would expect the cone to shift to the left...

the good thing though is that Florida has climatology in its side especially from something hitting from the East this late in the season...one still would expect a recurvature out to sea on this one...

[NcentralFlaguy]

Can somebody show me the frontal boundary that should hopefully sharply curve Noel...based on the WV loop she is now moving NW to WNW (overall movement) and there is nothing way out to the NW in the southern CONUS that looks like a front...just ridging off the EC of the US and Florida.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

I believe that there is a large mass of cool dry air (evident by the low temps in the ne today) this mass of air is expected to amplify the occluded stationary front draped over the peninsula...you can pick this up on the WV loop... I think it will push through the peninsula wednesday into thursday. with the slow motion of the system it should deflect Noel( prob now right at the last moment,) I am not afraid to be wrong so someone please correct me if I am. Thats how we learn

[gatorcane]

This water vapor loop would show the shortwaves across the midwest and EC...

BUT I don't see any major fronts diving down and pushing south...in fact I am seeing that a pretty zonal flow seems to be developing...look how the flow is streaming generall West to east over the Great lakes...

where is that short wave?

It probably will be a close call for Florida...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[ronjon]

12Z CMC - Over S FL and then north-northeast to just off Cape Cod.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007102912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 291705
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 11 20071029
165300 2001N 07028W 9874 00184 0084 +234 +225 125032 034 035 000 00
165330 2000N 07030W 9880 00178 0083 +234 +226 124032 033 031 003 03
165400 2000N 07032W 9873 00183 0082 +235 +224 124034 035 037 001 00
165430 2000N 07034W 9880 00176 0081 +235 +227 122034 035 037 000 00
165500 2000N 07036W 9875 00180 0080 +235 +229 120033 034 035 003 00
165530 2000N 07038W 9873 00180 0079 +235 +226 121034 035 040 000 00
165600 2000N 07039W 9879 00173 0078 +235 +229 120034 036 037 001 00
165630 2000N 07041W 9877 00175 0076 +234 +228 117036 036 036 001 00
165700 2000N 07043W 9879 00169 0074 +234 +230 116037 038 039 000 00
165730 2000N 07045W 9876 00171 0071 +234 +228 114039 040 038 002 00
165800 2000N 07047W 9874 00171 0071 +234 +230 112038 039 040 001 00
165830 2000N 07049W 9875 00170 0071 +235 +229 111036 038 038 001 00
165900 2000N 07051W 9876 00172 0071 +237 +224 114037 038 040 000 00
165930 2000N 07053W 9874 00170 0069 +238 +224 112038 040 037 003 00
170000 2000N 07055W 9881 00163 0068 +239 +224 112036 038 027 005 03
170030 1959N 07056W 9877 00167 0068 +238 +225 110034 036 033 004 00
170100 1958N 07058W 9878 00168 0069 +238 +221 113031 034 030 003 00
170130 1957N 07059W 9874 00170 0068 +237 +220 110029 030 027 001 00
170200 1956N 07101W 9874 00167 0065 +236 +216 107028 029 025 003 03
170230 1956N 07103W 9873 00166 0063 +239 +214 109025 027 022 003 00
$$
;

40 kt FL, 40 kt SFMR.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I said yesterday that the models may be underestimating the ridge
but I was wrong about saying it would be in the caribbean.
With a stronger ridge shown by the GFS that would keep
the trough further away which means SE FL might actually
get some tropical storm force winds due to Noel and a pressure
gradient.

I expect a leftward shift, because as usual the early models
underestimated the ridge, and now the 12Z NOGAPS is now
showing the ridge's influence better.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

NOGAPS and CMC 12Z bring tropical storm conditions to
Southeast FLorida

[ronjon]

wxman57's position for Noel is already 1 to 1.5 degrees west of the 2 PM positions of the 06Z GFDL and HWRF models. It appears these models may be eastern outliers unless some dramatic change in direction occurs shortly.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 291715
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 12 20071029
170300 1956N 07105W 9870 00169 0063 +242 +214 107024 026 020 003 03
170330 1955N 07106W 9880 00161 0062 +248 +211 112024 026 021 003 00
170400 1954N 07108W 9876 00163 0062 +246 +212 114024 025 023 003 00
170430 1954N 07110W 9875 00166 0063 +247 +212 111023 024 022 002 00
170500 1953N 07111W 9878 00163 0064 +246 +215 107018 020 021 003 00
170530 1953N 07113W 9872 00168 0063 +249 +215 101015 016 017 004 00
170600 1952N 07115W 9878 00162 0064 +250 +216 097010 012 011 003 00
170630 1952N 07116W 9876 00164 0063 +250 +217 102010 012 011 003 00
170700 1952N 07118W 9877 00165 0064 +248 +218 101010 012 010 004 03
170730 1953N 07120W 9867 00174 0065 +248 +219 117011 012 999 999 03
170800 1954N 07119W 9865 00175 0065 +244 +220 118010 012 016 003 03
170830 1955N 07118W 9900 00143 0064 +249 +219 115012 014 999 999 03
170900 1953N 07117W 9909 00136 0063 +248 +221 093009 010 008 004 03
170930 1952N 07119W 9958 00088 0061 +251 +224 096007 008 020 002 03
171000 1952N 07120W 9864 00177 0065 +245 +219 125011 013 007 003 03
171030 1953N 07122W 9876 00165 0064 +248 +217 134021 025 024 002 00
171100 1954N 07123W 9875 00167 0064 +248 +215 129024 025 026 004 03
171130 1954N 07125W 9876 00165 0064 +245 +217 123024 025 026 004 00
171200 1955N 07127W 9880 00162 0064 +245 +216 120028 029 029 003 00
171230 1955N 07129W 9877 00164 0065 +244 +217 116027 029 047 004 00
$$
;

47 kt SFMR, suspect?

[DESTRUCTION5]

wxman57's position for Noel is already 1 to 1.5 degrees west of the 2 PM positions of the 06Z GFDL and HWRF models. It appears these models may be eastern outliers unless some dramatic change in direction occurs shortly.

I said this last night in the Models thread and everyone looked at me like i had 3 heads..

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 291725
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 13 20071029
171300 1955N 07131W 9876 00165 0064 +244 +219 110024 026 029 002 00
171330 1956N 07133W 9873 00168 0064 +247 +219 111021 023 023 003 03
171400 1956N 07134W 9875 00165 0063 +249 +218 113019 022 023 004 00
171430 1956N 07136W 9879 00162 0063 +248 +219 115019 019 023 003 00
171500 1956N 07138W 9877 00165 0064 +249 +220 114017 018 022 003 03
171530 1955N 07140W 9873 00167 0064 +249 +219 110018 020 020 003 00
171600 1955N 07141W 9878 00162 0063 +247 +220 109018 021 021 002 00
171630 1954N 07143W 9877 00164 0063 +245 +220 106019 021 026 002 00
171700 1954N 07145W 9877 00163 0062 +245 +222 105018 020 025 002 00
171730 1953N 07146W 9874 00164 0062 +244 +222 106020 021 026 002 00
171800 1952N 07148W 9876 00162 0061 +244 +224 108021 021 026 003 03
171830 1951N 07149W 9877 00162 0061 +244 +224 105021 021 026 001 00
171900 1950N 07151W 9874 00163 0061 +243 +225 101020 021 023 003 00
171930 1950N 07152W 9877 00162 0061 +242 +225 099018 019 024 002 00
172000 1949N 07154W 9877 00161 0060 +242 +224 096019 020 024 001 00
172030 1948N 07155W 9874 00163 0060 +243 +226 095019 019 026 001 00
172100 1947N 07157W 9875 00162 0060 +241 +228 095018 019 023 003 00
172130 1946N 07158W 9876 00162 0061 +240 +230 094018 018 022 002 03
172200 1946N 07200W 9878 00160 0061 +240 +230 092017 017 021 003 00
172230 1945N 07202W 9877 00161 0061 +240 +229 089016 017 018 003 03
$$
;

[ronjon]

On VIS SAT the circulation looks to be tightening up again and so I think now that another LLC has formed right between Haiti, Cuba, and Grand Inagua Island - Moving west at a pretty good clip.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-vis.html

[Blown Away]

I agree, but more WNW to NW not W.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

542

WTNT80 EGRR 291700



 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



 AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.10.2007



        TROPICAL STORM NOEL       ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N  71.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162007



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 29.10.2007  18.4N  71.7W   MODERATE

 00UTC 30.10.2007  20.2N  74.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 30.10.2007  21.7N  75.3W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 31.10.2007  22.4N  76.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 31.10.2007  22.5N  77.3W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 01.11.2007  22.7N  78.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 01.11.2007  23.4N  79.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 02.11.2007  24.5N  78.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 02.11.2007  25.9N  77.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 03.11.2007  26.4N  76.7W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 03.11.2007  26.5N  75.2W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 04.11.2007  26.7N  73.0W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 04.11.2007  27.5N  71.0W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY



           

 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 291700


12z UKMET
Hello Andros Island.

[Evil Jeremy]

Correct me If I am wrong, but dont the new BAM models and the new GFDL come out within the next hour?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

12z UKMET
Hello Andros Island.


But the model was initialized about 150 miles to the SE of the real position.

[boca]

This is just an observation but on the sat picture the trough that extends across North Florida SW towards the BOC is moving slowly west. Wouldn't that cause Noel to do the samebut WNW direction. If their was a trough coming down to scoup up Noel wouldn't that trough be moving east instead of drifting west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Frank2]

It does seem to be getting a little better organized ("Hello, Sebring?")...

We'll see what happens (I'm getting too old for this)...

Frank

[seaswing]

In this area today, it is very cool, raining/drizzle and cloudy. We have all said it is a mourning to the Gators loss on Saturday. Seriously, looks like it could snow any minute. Definitely a cold front passing by.