Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[tracyswfla]

Wow it sure is. As for as recurature they didn't account for this moving at 12mph but at 6mph, that only will affect the outcome of effects for S FL.

Oh come on! Make up your minds! Seriously, here in Ft. Myers the wind is coming from the South.

No south wind anywhere in Florida. Winds in Ft. Myers are ENE at 14 kts gusting 21 kts:

KFMY| |291753|86.0F|64.9F|49.6%|070|014|021|30.03|8|CLR|
KFMY| |291653|82.9F|69.1F|63.1%|080|012|000|30.06|999|SCT|
KFMY| |291553|81.0F|69.1F|67.3%|070|011|000|30.08|999|CLR|

Ok that doesn't lie. So I guess my eye was wrong... Let me go outside and check again!

[wxman57]

wxman, does Noel pose a direct threat to SFL now?

Depends on how you define "threat". If the cold front and strong high pressure over the east coast wasn't there, Florida wouldn't see much wind as Noel recurves near Andros Island. But with the cold front in place and strong high to the north, Florida will likely see winds near TS strength regardless of whether or not Noel even has a well-defined center. It's just a pressure gradient "thing".

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 291805
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 17 20071029
175300 2028N 07330W 9836 00178 0039 +238 +222 159029 031 035 001 03
175330 2030N 07329W 9838 00177 0040 +238 +225 159027 028 999 999 03
175400 2030N 07328W 9839 00178 0041 +239 +228 160025 027 031 004 00
175430 2030N 07326W 9838 00179 0042 +240 +228 157024 025 030 002 03
175500 2031N 07325W 9832 00184 0042 +241 +228 152024 025 999 999 03
175530 2033N 07326W 9840 00179 0042 +242 +229 148024 025 999 999 03
175600 2033N 07328W 9838 00179 0041 +240 +227 149025 026 999 999 03
175630 2032N 07329W 9833 00183 0041 +236 +233 148023 024 999 999 03
175700 2031N 07329W 9839 00175 0040 +237 +227 154024 025 032 005 00
175730 2030N 07329W 9836 00180 0040 +239 +225 159024 025 032 004 00
175800 2028N 07329W 9834 00181 0039 +239 +224 163024 025 031 004 00
175830 2027N 07329W 9841 00175 0039 +240 +222 167024 025 034 002 03
175900 2026N 07329W 9837 00177 0040 +242 +217 171028 029 036 002 00
175930 2024N 07329W 9834 00182 0039 +240 +217 176027 028 036 003 00
180000 2023N 07329W 9837 00178 0039 +241 +215 181027 028 036 003 00
180030 2022N 07329W 9838 00176 0040 +240 +216 182025 027 035 004 00
180100 2020N 07329W 9836 00180 0041 +239 +222 183024 025 033 004 03
180130 2019N 07328W 9839 00178 0041 +240 +220 190025 027 032 003 00
180200 2018N 07327W 9833 00182 0042 +240 +223 191024 026 030 003 03
180230 2018N 07325W 9837 00181 0042 +240 +224 193025 026 029 003 00
$$
;

[cpdaman]

it sure is windy on the e coast of florida today , not as bad as it was at the beginning of the month, but getting there

here's hoping the cuban coast keeps this from doing anything kind of like it did 4 ernesto

we may get some coastal flooding in the palm beaches

[JonathanBelles]

Ive got winds up in the 20mph+ range. Latest was 22mph.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 291815
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 18 20071029
180300 2017N 07324W 9837 00180 0043 +240 +226 196024 025 029 001 03
180330'wg

Data set error...

[Blown Away]

It's moving NW at 15, that goofy track does not make sense.

[CrazyC83]

It's moving NW at 15, that goofy track does not make sense.

Intermediate advisories don't change track forecasts, and those funny tracks happen when there is a center relocation.

[hial2]

it sure is windy on the e coast of florida today , not as bad as it was at the beginning of the month, but getting there

here's hoping the cuban coast keeps this from doing anything kind of like it did 4 ernesto

we may get some coastal flooding in the palm beaches

I think we WANT the Cuban coast to do to Noel what it did to Ernesto

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 291825
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 19 20071029
181300 1957N 07328W 9837 00184 0045 +244 +227 200016 016 026 000 00
181330 1957N 07330W 9834 00186 0046 +240 +226 202015 015 024 001 00
181400 1958N 07331W 9837 00183 0046 +240 +228 201013 014 022 001 00
181430 1958N 07333W 9837 00185 0046 +240 +220 204012 013 022 001 00
181500 1958N 07334W 9836 00184 0046 +238 +220 205012 012 023 002 00
181530 1959N 07336W 9837 00183 0046 +235 +226 207012 012 025 004 00
181600 1959N 07337W 9837 00183 0045 +234 +231 211011 012 024 004 00
181630 2000N 07339W 9837 00182 0045 +233 +226 210012 012 025 003 00
181700 2000N 07340W 9833 00186 0045 +230 +230 215010 011 022 005 03
181730 1959N 07342W 9838 00181 0044 +229 +228 221008 009 027 005 00
181800 1958N 07343W 9837 00181 0044 +230 +230 240010 010 027 003 00
181830 1958N 07345W 9833 00184 0044 +229 +229 257008 009 027 004 00
181900 1957N 07346W 9842 00177 0043 +233 +229 260009 010 023 003 03
181930 1956N 07347W 9836 00183 0044 +232 +232 264010 010 023 003 03
182000 1954N 07347W 9836 00183 0045 +232 +232 258009 009 023 003 00
182030 1953N 07347W 9834 00185 0046 +234 +233 244009 009 999 999 03
182100 1952N 07346W 9840 00180 0045 +235 +227 227010 011 999 999 03
182130 1952N 07344W 9837 00182 0045 +239 +224 215012 012 999 999 03
182200 1953N 07343W 9836 00183 0045 +239 +223 211012 013 023 000 03
182230 1954N 07342W 9835 00184 0045 +238 +222 210013 014 022 001 00
$$
;

[MiamiensisWx]

I think this system is destined to be sheared into pieces. Personally, it looks like Noel may open up into a broad, non-tropical trough as it interacts with the approaching s/w. It will be moving into increasingly unfavorable UL divergence. If the circulation off eastern Cuba is the main LLC, Noel may move west with the 850 mb (low-level) flow and suffer a painful death over eastern Cuba via shear. If the circulation near the TPC's initial position is the LLC, Noel will probably recurve over the western Bahamas and transition to a non-tropical low within a broad extratropical trough.

Current shear:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

[ronjon]

Based on the center reformation, existing W-NW movement, and several of the 12Z Global models (GFS, UKMET, NOGAPs & CMC) now indicating a W-NW motion paralleling the northern Cuban coast, I'd say we're in for a significant track adjustment further west by the NHC at 5 PM. Looks like putting all their eggs (or most of them) in the GFDL basket may not be the correct call again with this one. That model has shown a significant right-of-track bias this year.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I know this isn't the model thread, and I know its the Canadian Met Centre model, but a slow moving strong TS or hurricane near Miami, heading up the coast, getting some baroclinic juice, and bringing a hurricane strength hybrid to SE New England, well, that would be impressive.

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 18:15 UTC:



The center is between Great Inagua island and the NE tip of Cuba.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 291836
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 20 20071029
182300 1955N 07340W 9838 00182 0045 +237 +225 208014 014 022 002 00
182330 1956N 07339W 9839 00182 0046 +237 +225 207014 015 025 000 00
182400 1957N 07337W 9837 00183 0046 +239 +219 202014 015 022 002 03
182430 1958N 07336W 9839 00181 0046 +239 +218 198014 015 999 999 03
182500 1959N 07336W 9841 00179 0045 +238 +220 197015 015 026 003 00
182530 2001N 07336W 9837 00184 0045 +232 +231 204014 015 025 004 00
182600 2003N 07337W 9835 00184 0044 +230 +230 201015 016 025 003 00
182630 2004N 07337W 9838 00180 0043 +231 +224 198017 017 027 002 00
182700 2006N 07337W 9835 00182 0043 +232 +227 197016 017 028 003 00
182730 2008N 07337W 9836 00182 0042 +230 +230 194017 017 028 005 00
182800 2009N 07338W 9837 00179 0041 +230 +230 190018 019 029 005 00
182830 2011N 07338W 9836 00180 0041 +230 +228 190020 020 029 005 00
182900 2013N 07338W 9836 00178 0040 +228 +226 189021 023 032 003 00
182930 2015N 07338W 9837 00176 0039 +227 +227 181022 022 032 002 00
183000 2016N 07339W 9837 00176 0038 +230 +225 178023 026 030 005 00
183030 2018N 07339W 9839 00174 0037 +228 +225 176027 028 034 005 00
183100 2020N 07339W 9833 00178 0037 +228 +221 176028 029 035 006 00
183130 2022N 07339W 9838 00174 0036 +226 +226 172031 033 039 005 00
183200 2023N 07340W 9837 00174 0035 +231 +224 170032 033 039 006 00
183230 2025N 07340W 9834 00176 0034 +229 +229 166033 034 039 003 00
$$
;

34 kt FL, 39 kt SFMR, 1003mb pressure

[Canelaw99]

I know this isn't the model thread, and I know its the Canadian Met Centre model, but a slow moving strong TS or hurricane near Miami, heading up the coast, getting some baroclinic juice, and bringing a hurricane strength hybrid to SE New England, well, that would be impressive.

LOL - for whatever reason, the Canadian model has it in for us S. Floridians this year. I've lost count of how many times it spun up a major storm that hit Miami this season.

[wxman57]

Based on the center reformation, existing W-NW movement, and several of the 12Z Global models (GFS, UKMET, NOGAPs & CMC) now indicating a W-NW motion paralleling the northern Cuban coast, I'd say we're in for a significant track adjustment further west by the NHC at 5 PM. Looks like putting all their eggs (or most of them) in the GFDL basket may not be the correct call again with this one. That model has shown a significant right-of-track bias this year.

I can almost guarantee the NHC will adjust the track west a bit (or left of previous track a bit) at 4pm CDT. I have it tracking to between Andros Island and Cuba before it hits the SW jet and turns NE across Andros Island on Wednesday. But, like I said, exactly where it tracks will make little difference in the effects across Florida. The wind in Florida is due mostly to the strong high pressure building behind the cold front. Noel may add 5-10 mph to that post-frontal wind with the increasing gradient.

[tgenius]

I'm far from concerned about Noel or whatever's left of it, I just don't want it to rain on Halloween night! My wife and I are going to the Grove to see all the costumes and stuff.

[cycloneye]

29/1745 UTC 20.4N 73.6W T1.5/2.0 NOEL -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

The position is where I said in the image post above,between Great Inagua Island and the NE tip of Cuba.

[fci]

Can somebody show me the frontal boundary that should hopefully sharply curve Noel...based on the WV loop she is now moving NW to WNW (overall movement) and there is nothing way out to the NW in the southern CONUS that looks like a front...just ridging off the EC of the US and Florida.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

You may be ticking off Noel by calling him a "she".
It is a "he".
Noel rhymes with "pole".
Or as the NHC put it yesterday:
"PLEASE NOTE THAT THE PRONUNCIATION FOR THE THIS STORM'S NAME IS
NOL...WITH A LONG O SOUND AND JUST ONE SYLLABLE...OR EXACTLY LIKE
THE WORD KNOLL"