Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[drezee]

888
URNT11 KNHC 291911
97779 19004 20210 74508 02500 06032 24238 /0004
40735
RMK AF307 0316A NOEL OB 13
RADAR CENTER FIX 20.5N 074.3W, POOR RADAR PRESENTATION, NAV ACCURACY 10NM
SWS = 035KTS

[Blown Away]

29/1745 UTC 20.4N 73.6W T1.5/2.0 NOEL -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

The position is where I said in the image post above,between Great Inagua Island and the NE tip of Cuba.

Position is W of the NHC track.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 291927
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 25 20071029
191300 2054N 07403W 9245 00717 0041 +192 +192 115036 037 040 008 00
191330 2053N 07402W 9245 00718 0040 +195 +192 113036 036 039 007 00
191400 2053N 07400W 9250 00711 0039 +194 +194 114035 037 041 006 00
191430 2052N 07359W 9238 00721 0039 +191 +191 119031 032 040 005 03
191500 2052N 07358W 9250 00710 0037 +195 +195 128032 033 040 005 00
191530 2051N 07357W 9248 00712 0037 +197 +197 139031 031 040 003 00
191600 2051N 07355W 9247 00714 0039 +199 +198 141030 031 041 003 00
191630 2050N 07354W 9249 00714 0041 +195 +195 139030 031 039 003 00
191700 2050N 07352W 9248 00715 0040 +198 +194 139030 031 040 002 00
191730 2049N 07351W 9247 00717 0040 +200 +192 142034 034 039 002 00
191800 2049N 07350W 9247 00717 0040 +200 +192 151035 036 038 001 00
191830 2049N 07348W 9245 00719 0043 +194 +194 147037 039 038 002 00
191900 2048N 07347W 9249 00716 0047 +178 +178 142038 039 041 009 00
191930 2048N 07345W 9243 00723 0044 +194 +182 143038 038 040 006 00
192000 2048N 07344W 9249 00718 0043 +205 +171 145038 040 040 004 00
192030 2047N 07343W 9246 00721 0044 +201 +171 150039 039 038 002 00
192100 2047N 07341W 9249 00719 0045 +202 +177 153038 039 037 003 00
192130 2047N 07340W 9250 00718 0045 +204 +189 150036 036 038 003 00
192200 2046N 07338W 9247 00721 0047 +197 +195 150035 035 036 002 03
192230 2046N 07337W 9246 00725 0047 +203 +191 154034 035 033 002 00
$$
;

[bocadude86]

Just of the Cuban coast moving more wnw then nw I would say

[ronjon]

It's moving almost due west now if you compare the NRL position with the radar fix from Reconn.

[Bgator]

Is slow restrengthening likely?

[hurricanefloyd5]

Is slow restrengthening likely?

Yes, but the question is will is grow to MIN. Hurricane of Cat.1????

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 291935
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 26 20071029
192300 2046N 07335W 9245 00727 0048 +204 +190 156032 033 032 003 00
192330 2045N 07334W 9249 00722 0049 +199 +189 160031 032 033 002 00
192400 2045N 07333W 9247 00725 0050 +196 +196 161030 031 033 004 00
192430 2045N 07331W 9245 00728 0053 +191 +191 155030 031 034 007 00
192500 2044N 07330W 9250 00722 0049 +200 +200 155031 033 034 007 00
192530 2044N 07328W 9246 00725 0051 +196 +196 155035 037 034 005 00
192600 2044N 07327W 9243 00729 0051 +196 +196 159032 035 032 008 00
192630 2043N 07325W 9251 00721 0053 +194 +194 151027 028 031 007 03
192700 2044N 07324W 9243 00730 0057 +182 +182 142027 028 033 006 00
192730 2044N 07322W 9242 00733 0054 +194 +194 147028 030 030 006 03
192800 2044N 07321W 9246 00728 0054 +192 +192 143030 031 033 005 00
192830 2044N 07319W 9246 00725 0055 +185 +185 143028 030 034 008 00
192900 2043N 07318W 9243 00730 0051 +198 +198 147028 029 033 007 00
192930 2043N 07316W 9249 00727 0051 +205 +200 152029 031 032 003 00
193000 2042N 07315W 9246 00730 0052 +204 +198 151029 031 033 003 00
193030 2042N 07313W 9040 00925 0053 +191 +191 156030 033 999 999 03
193100 2042N 07312W 8734 01224 0054 +179 +170 169032 033 999 999 03
193130 2041N 07310W 8450 01510 0059 +163 +150 176033 034 032 001 03
193200 2041N 07309W 8415 01548 0062 +160 +148 178032 033 028 002 03
193230 2041N 07307W 8423 01542 0064 +159 +146 181032 033 028 002 00
$$
;

Now at 1500 ft.

[gatorcane]

I read through some of the posts from the past couple of hours. We are definitely seeing noel respond to the ridge in the Western Atlantic. It's an epic battle folks. Old Man Winter wants to erode the ridge but the ridge just doesn't want to leave yet. A month from now and winter would probably win out hands down....

I am currently in the Charlotte-Douglas Intl airport with conditions around 58F and light winds out of the E. West Palm Beach conditions showed ENE winds from 15-23mph with low cumulous and temps around 82-85F -- very summery like. The skies looked as if a ridge was in place off to the N. There is a definite cold front but how far south it goes is key.

but the key thing to note is that Noel is moving WNW now and is west of the NHC points....the more west she goes, the more threat to South Florida he becomes.........

and strengthening seems likely given the low UL winds ahead of it and the very warm oceanic heat content between the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles.

[bocadude86]

Needs to get away from cuba if he wants to strenghten

[cycloneye]

12z EURO



Very close to South Florida.

[gatorcane]

Indeed Luis, the Euro continues to bring Noel into SE Florida or very close to it....

the advisories this evening (and where the NHC puts the projected track) may dicate if preparations may need to start along the SE Coast of Florida from about Jupiter south through W. Palm Beach-Boca Raton, Miami-Ft.Lauderadale.

Even so, the pressure gradient between the High to the north and Noel *could* cause TS winds/gusts along the E coast of Florida (as Wxman notes in the other discussions/imagery thread).....

[Blown Away]

Which W point is it, 74.3 or 73.6W?? Let's clear this up.

[ronjon]

I'm thinking now that in about 60-72 hrs the center will be very close to the S FL coast - anywhere from on the coast to Andros Island. If that verifies, I'd expect that the NHC will issue tropical storm watches probably late tomorrow for the S FL coast and upper keys. The strong high pressure to the north with the pressure gradient will produce tropical storm force winds on the S FL peninsula even if the center remains 100 miles offshore.

[ronjon]

Which W point is it, 74.3 or 73.6W?? Let's clear this up.

74.3W is the radar fix from reconn.

[CrazyC83]

Flight is over - Recco said last report.

[Evil Jeremy]

When does the next recon plane depart?

[CrazyC83]

I think the recon fix is correct in terms of location. Also I think the intensity is 45 kt/1002mb.

[HURAKAN]

Radar of Holguín, Cuba:

[cycloneye]

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71
A. 30/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0516A CYCLONE
C. 29/0045Z
D. 19.5N 77.3W
E. FROM 0500Z TO 0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

At 9:45 PM EDT it departs.