Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[gatorcane]

You can see from this loop (by enabling tropical forecast points) that the center is tracking west of the forecast points by about 50-75 miles.....

lets hope for a N wobble to put it back on track with the forecast points.

I agree with Wxman a shift left is likely at 5pm EST but they should show a sharp NE curve out to sea...question is how close it gets to SE Florida...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Blown Away]

Which W point is it, 74.3 or 73.6W?? Let's clear this up.

74.3W is the radar fix from reconn.

Noel was not supposed to make it 74.4W until 11am tomorrow. I agree w/ the previous post, everybody is wrong!

[hial2]

Before we go to panic mode re: Florida,let's take a big breath and try not to speculate..What do the real mets in the board say? I think a voice of sanity will calm nerves and prevent a shortage of bottle water and T.P. at Winn Dixie..I remember the madness that overcomes otherwise ordinary citizens..When I read a post of at least a cat 1 hitting Florida, I thought "Oh boy..here it comes"

[Canelaw99]

I agree with everyone taking a deep breath, however, it doesn't hurt to start minimal preps anyway....picking up lawn debris, picking up a little water/canned food, etc. Granted, a lot of that should've been done at the start of 'cane season, but at this point most people have dipped into their water and canned goods I would imagine. This may end up catching a lot of people in S Fl by surprise if it continues heading more W than N. I wouldn't be surprised to see us back in the cone at 5, just to be safe....

[dtrain44]

I have to ask - given the rainfall shortages lately, would it even be that bad if Noel were to hit Florida? It seems unlikely that Noel will ever be a hurricane and I seriously doubt that a landfalling TS would cause that much damage in Florida. Given that and the very uncertain track forecast, I don't think it's time to panic in Florida at all. I agree completely with Hial2 and think that a landfalling cyclone would not be the worst thing in the world even if it did happen......

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
231 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...PROLONGED WINDY AND SQUALLY PERIOD CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK...

...SIGNIFICANT MARINE EVENT WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HIGH SEAS AND
SURF...BEACH EROSION AND RIP CURRENTS...

.DISCUSSION...THROUGH TONIGHT...TIGHT 8-9 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN JAX AND MIA HAS DEVELOPED AS ADVERTISED AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. INITIAL WIND SURGE HAS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF CWA AND NOW IS BECOMING DIFFUSE. USAF 915 MHZ WIND
PROFILER AT CAPE CANAVERAL HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE OF FLOW BELOW
10KFT FROM 15 KT TO 25 KT OVER PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MEANWHILE...
KMLB 88D INDICATES A SOLID 30 KT ABOVE 1800 FT WITH PEAKS OF 40 KT
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION. THUS FAR...SURFACE
OBS HAVE VERIFIED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KT DURING RECENT SHOWER(S) AT MLB
AND COF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/SQUALLS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN CWA
AND UPSTREAM OVER ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ONSHORE AND
INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE TO PATTERN OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN BRISK ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WARM WATERS...
REMAINING 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE TYPICAL LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.

.TUE-WED...FORECAST AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND TROPICAL STORM NOEL MOVING
NORTH OF EASTERN CUBA. THE INCREASED GRADIENT BETWEEN WILL PROMOTE
PERSISTENT WINDY/SQUALLY WEATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY. LONG FETCH
EASTERLIES WITH MOIST PWAT AIR CRASH THE COAST BRINGING HIGH SURF
AND WIND GUSTS TO OCCASIONAL/FREQUENT GALE FORCE. CURRENT WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS...SAGGING SOMEWHAT SOUTH...PROVIDES A
LIMITED FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL OTHERWISE MOVE
ONSHORE IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MAX QPF IN VICINITY OF THE
COAST NEAR THE BOUNDARY. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH BUMPS ALONG OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AS 250 MB JET SHOOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. WITH AN OFFERING OF INCREASED WESTERLY SHEAR. THE RESULT IS AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND 40-60% POPS.

.THU-SUN...MUCH OF THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON
THE PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF NOEL. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO
RE-ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND
IN VICINITY OF GREAT ABACO BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD PER
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...MODELS DO DIFFER IN OPINION ON
TRACK AND/OR INTENSITY SO FACTORED UNCERTAINTY IS PRUDENT HERE. IN
POINT...THE 12Z GFS ENDEAVORS TO MOVE THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE SOUTH
PENINSULA...INITIALIZATION ERRORS ASIDE...BEFORE NOEL FEELS EVENTUAL
MID-LATITUDE EFFECTS. THIS WILL HAVE BEARING ON THE LOCAL TIGHTNESS
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TRAJECTORY OF MEAN LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE. A SETUP FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE ALREADY
SIGNIFICANT MARINE/COASTAL EVENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. NOEL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUFFER
FROM MID-UPPER WESTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE LOW CENTER SLOWING AND
WEAKENING THEN MOVING NORTHEAST. FOR LAND LUBBERS AWAY FROM THE
COAST...AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ATMOSPHERIC DRYING EXISTS FOR THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NORTH AND WELL INLAND. AS NOEL MOVES FARTHER
SEAWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...IMPROVED CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE RELATIVE TO
THE FRONT SIDE OF AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SPRAWLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHLAND FROM TEXAS TO GEORGIA. TRUE NORTHERLIES APPEAR TO BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH A MARITIME FLOW RE-ASSUMED DURING SAT INTO SUN.
POPS FINALLY DROP BELOW 30% FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS
TRENDING TOWARD CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERAL MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT THE COAST AND SPREADING WELL INLAND. SURFACE
WINDS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOT GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
NEAR CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE. WINDS WILL LESSEN BY ABOUT 10 KT
AFTER SUNSET AND WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY INLAND...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER WINDS WILL REMAIN LIKELY NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS SPREADING
ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME
FREQUENT ACROSS ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT WHERE GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IN
EFFECT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RESPOND TO HIGH WINDS...REACHING
10-12 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE. HIGH SURF AND STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE...WITH BEACH EROSION BECOMING AN
INCREASING CONCERN WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS TUE-WED. MAX SEA
HEIGHTS BUILD TO 15-18 FT IN NON-DISRUPTED ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE
PERIOD. HIGH SURF WITH SOME BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A
MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT POTENTIAL HAZARD IS A GROWING CONCERN. SEAS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER IN THE WEEK REDUCING TO SCA CONDITIONS...AND
GENTLY SUBSIDING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 72 80 75 81 / 50 60 50 50
MCO 69 81 69 83 / 40 50 40 40
MLB 76 82 78 83 / 50 60 50 60
VRB 76 83 79 83 / 40 60 50 60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST.
LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM COCOA
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER
BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SPRATT
LONG TERM....SHARP

[Blown Away]

I don't think anybody is panicing, even a Cat 1 is unlikely. I love 30-60mph winds, I'm wishing a minmal TS to WPB. The E flow has begun this afternoon, winds gusting around 20-25mph.

[NcentralFlaguy]

It looks to me like its about to run ashore in cuba ..that may end all of this ,given the poor shape that its already in. Cause of death may be: proximity to land. It looked more organized as an invest.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The model consensus now seems to be for a recurve over about Andros Island. That's pretty well within a margin of error for SoFla it seems to me. Keep in mind that all of the models initialized a position well SE of the current position. That could affect the end result.

[HURAKAN]

I have to ask - given the rainfall shortages lately, would it even be that bad if Noel were to hit Florida? It seems unlikely that Noel will ever be a hurricane and I seriously doubt that a landfalling TS would cause that much damage in Florida. Given that and the very uncertain track forecast, I don't think it's time to panic in Florida at all. I agree completely with Hial2 and think that a landfalling cyclone would not be the worst thing in the world even if it did happen......

I have been waiting for a storm like Noel for a long time since the drought began. It will be a bless from God if Noel manages to hit Florida. I would dance in the rain!!!

[Frank2]

But when you look at the IR loop, it seems that the entire system is moving northward, with a MLC north of the Haitian coast, so, don't be surprised (or upset) if the NHC does put more emphasis on a general northward or north-northeastward movement (parallel to Florida, per one of the models this morning), more than anything:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[Bgator]

But when you look at the IR loop, it seems that the entire system is moving northward, with a MLC north of the Haitian coast:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

You shouldn't use the IR for tracking storms, it is very deceiving.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

The circulation is very visible west of Great Inagua Island and moving west.

[Bgator]

Also, the wind has been picking up all day here in Miami, this morning it was calm, now its really starting to pick up, that pressure gradient must be pretty tight.

[Frank2]

Well, that can be true, but, the general movement in this case does seem to the north - there are at least two weak LLC's with a westward component at this time (that are seen in the VIS loop or on the Cuban radar loop), but, tracking those can be just as deceiving...

[gatorcane]

Frank have to disagree it looks very convincingly west (the "center") fortunately it has not strengthened much yet...but it has plenty of time if it wants....

we'll have to wait and see....

[Frank2]

Yes, but, a gradient wind doesn't necessarily mean the low is headed this way - often, it happens in cases just the opposite...

[Frank2]

I agree, Gatorcane - we'll see what happens...

Ugh...

[Bgator]

Yes, but, a gradient wind doesn't necessarily mean the low is headed this way - often, it happens in cases just the opposite...

Yeah, i know, i was just pointing out how gusty the winds are already, in Miami at least.

[Blown Away]

Well, that can be true, but, the general movement in this case does seem to the north - there are at least two weak LLC's with a westward component at this time (that are seen in the VIS loop or on the Cuban radar loop), but, tracking those can be just as deceiving...

Maybe it's just me but I see clear WNW.