Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Bgator]

"INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL."

[cycloneye]

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

From the 5 PM Advisory.

[tracyswfla]

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

From the 5 PM Advisory.

Not a big shock!

Yup we are in the cone.

[cycloneye]

South Florida is in the cone.

[CrazyC83]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 292057
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
2100 UTC MON OCT 29 2007

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUAY AND LAS TUNAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 74.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 74.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 73.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.4N 75.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.7N 77.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.7N 78.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.8N 79.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 35.0N 68.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 74.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


000
WTNT41 KNHC 292059
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

THE CENTER OF NOEL EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI
EARLIER TODAY...HAS SINCE BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
325/13...AND IS NOW JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE
CIRCULATION CENTER WAS TOO CLOSE TO LAND FOR THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO FLY DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CENTER...BUT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT
WITH A POSITION ESTIMATED FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 37 KT AT THE
SURFACE...WHILE SFMR ESTIMATES PEAKED A LITTLE HIGHER NEAR 50 KT.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE ESTIMATES. THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND THE
STORM HAS A VERY SPRAWLING APPEARANCE...BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS
EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...CONTINUING TO BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO HISPANIOLA.

THE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE
GENERALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. DURING THE FIRST 48
HOURS...THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERN OUTLIER BUT HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS...WHILE THE GFS PROVIDES THE
WESTERNMOST TRACK. DURING THIS PERIOD NOEL SHOULD CONTINUE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW SOON THIS TURN
WILL MATERIALIZE AND HOW FAST NOEL WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...PERHAPS
DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE PREDICTED VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ARE
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER
AS NOEL HEADS NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
THIS FORECAST IS AGAIN IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND HWRF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 20.9N 74.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 22.4N 75.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 23.7N 77.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 24.7N 78.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 25.8N 79.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 03/1800Z 35.0N 68.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

Where is everyone?

After a month of nothing, I can't get very interested in this storm. It's not impressing me either...

[Typhoon_Willie]

Coastal Flood warning is in effect for my area right now.

[Blown Away]

Local news panic button has been pushed!!! Which had the bigger effect on the W shift in the track, was it the faster forward speed or center relocation??

[chadtm80]

[Aquawind]

Come to papa..

[Derek Ortt]

I am going to make some storm preparations

[RL3AO]

Derek, are the conditions supportive, or even somewhat supportive for RI?

[hial2]

I am going to make some storm preparations

Please explain in depth, Mr Ortt..I'd like to relay your thoughts to my family down your way..

[Evil Jeremy]

Once again, this season is spawning a storm that is breaking all the rules. This time, it is running against the expected front, and not recurving when expected too.

[Derek Ortt]

with the track forecasts between 60-100NM east of SF, and the intensity forecasts of a strong TS,. it is prudent to make the basic preparations. Like getting any needed bottled water and canned goods.

[tracyswfla]

Come to papa..

Cute Aqua. I am moving to NY at the end of November! Noel will be my last storm.

[HeatherAKC]

Knock-Knock.

Hear that? It's me, knocking at your door, Noel.

I expect a treat, not a trick!

Seriously, Derek...what kind of preps are you considering? I was planning to bring in the patio furniture if necessary, but that's about it at this point. Awaiting an answer as many of us here value your opinion......

EDIT: You beat me to it, Derek. Thanks. Food, water. Got it.

[CrazyC83]

What are the chances this storm could pull a Hazel (also an October storm) and shoot straight north, not recurving at all?

[chadtm80]

Knock-Knock.

Hear that? It's me, knocking at your door, Noel.

I expect a treat, not a trick!

Seriously, Derek...what kind of preps are you considering? I was planning to bring in the patio furniture if necessary, but that's about it at this point. Awaiting an answer as many of us here value your opinion......

EDIT: You beat me to it, Derek. Thanks. Food, water. Got it.

Food, Water yes.. Main thing to be prepared for is being ready to possibly be without power for an extended period of time

[Bgator]

Everytime i start getting interested in a storm, it seems to shoot away from Miami. lol