Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

24 hrs ago the kind of scenario we're looking now was a dream. So, anything is possible.

[flwxwatcher]

The Euro and the GFS bring Noel close to South Florida. Lets see if this trend continues

[Aquawind]

:uarrow: 24 hrs ago the kind of scenario we're looking now was a dream. So, anything is possible.

Yep, That's WEATHER..

[MiamiensisWx]

http://www.miamiherald.com/574/story/288223.html

More good news, maybe: The stronger and better organized Noel becomes before it approaches Florida, the more likely it is to veer wide right, forecasters said.

''The possibility of a hurricane making landfall [in South Florida] is very, very minimal at this point,'' Roberts said.

Roberts is a specialist at the National Hurricane Center.

[fci]

Local Met said that on the current course we would be close to Noel and that the effects would be the winds mainly from the pressure gradient.
The convection associated with it is mostly east of the center so the beneficial rains would not come here.
He said that for us to get the rains it would have to track almost to the West coast of Florida and then curve back to the NE.

Looks to me, unless it continues to have a track get further and further west; we will get the gusty winds and an occasional burst of rain from Noel.

I totally agree about the "win-win" that if it is weak we get it closer and that if it strengthens it goes further East.

As long as we don't get any damage it is kind of fun to have something to track if only for a couple of days or so.
If a Cat 1 hits here, the fun is over and it sucks.

[hial2]

Since the worst of the weather is east of Noel, I don't think much of Florida will get any rain from Noel except areas next to the east coast.

Kind of off topic, but I thought I would say it, I like that word "Aquawind"....sounds really cool

Agreed.. Heavy rains are a dream at this point. But we all gotta dream!

You can dream, but I have nightmares from Irene's rains...It would have to rain in the right places to ease the drought..otherwise with all the drainage areas that have been paved over since 99, ohhhh boy!!!

[HURAKAN]

[Blown Away]

I wonder if the track will shift further west to include S FL in a tropical storm watch or warning.

With the current track, I would anticipate a tropical storm watch. However, watches and warnings are made 24 hours in advance. Noel is not expected to be near SoFla until Wednesday evening so expect any advisories, if any at all, to be issued tomorrow.

I think they want to get a handle on the forward speed (The key IMO) and if the LLC starts to refire for the next couple model runs, I expect TS Watches at 11pm unless the track shifts E again. TS Watch for NW Bahamas should include SFL, IMO. Bottom line, they want to be sure before setting panic mode in SFL. TS Warning for a strong TS will likely, to be safe, include a Hurricane Watch and that equals panic.

[Aquawind]

Impressive convection popping on the last few frames of the visible. Recon might find a stronger system and certainly a more organized system..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Edited for spelling correction* Dang I have been bad lately..

[hial2]

http://www.miamiherald.com/574/story/288223.html

More good news, maybe: The stronger and better organized Noel becomes before it approaches Florida, the more likely it is to veer wide right, forecasters said.

''The possibility of a hurricane making landfall [in South Florida] is very, very minimal at this point,'' Roberts said.

Roberts is a specialist at the National Hurricane Center.

Is there any way to know when the article was posted on line?...Things have changed quite a bit since this morning

[HURAKAN]

I still remember my last Hurricane Watch:



There was a WATCH for the HURRICANE but he never appeared!!!

[destruction92]

Impressive convection popping on the last few frames of the visable. Recon might find a stronger system and certainly a more organized system..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

That sounds like good news for the U.S. and with this info., even better: "More good news, maybe: The stronger and better organized Noel becomes before it approaches Florida, the more likely it is to veer wide right, forecasters said.

''The possibility of a hurricane making landfall [in South Florida] is very, very minimal at this point,'' Roberts said.

[NcentralFlaguy]

http://www.miamiherald.com/574/story/288223.html

More good news, maybe: The stronger and better organized Noel becomes before it approaches Florida, the more likely it is to veer wide right, forecasters said.

''The possibility of a hurricane making landfall [in South Florida] is very, very minimal at this point,'' Roberts said.

Roberts is a specialist at the National Hurricane Center.

Is there any way to know when the article was posted on line?...Things have changed quite a bit since this morning

I believe this article is fairly recent ...it has to be post the 5pm advisory.

[wxman57]

One thing to note in the NHC advisories is that Noel's tropical storm force winds are forecast to be only on the east side of the storm as it passes off the coast of Florida. Wind radii of 34kt winds are 0nm in the marine advisory. However, as I've said before, the cold front dropping south through Florida NOW is already producing 25-35 mph winds along the coast. Winds will get a little stronger over the next few days as Noel passes, causing tides 2-3 feet above normal. lots of beach erosion, and good surfing conditions.

[Aquawind]

That sounds like good news for the U.S. and with this info., even better: "More good news, maybe: The stronger and better organized Noel becomes before it approaches Florida, the more likely it is to veer wide right, forecasters said.

''The possibility of a hurricane making landfall [in South Florida] is very, very minimal at this point,'' Roberts said.

We shall see but some will probably argue otherwise..not me for sure

Like fci mentiond above... a Cat1 landfall would suck..we don't need people suffering.

[cycloneye]

To get the very latest image,refresh it.

[DanKellFla]

It would be nice to get some bands over the lake, but not on Halloween.

[LeeJet]

I see a more W. motion.

[Vortex]

This reminds me of Hurricane Kate in 85 to an extent...

[CrazyC83]

I still remember my last Hurricane Watch:



There was a WATCH for the HURRICANE but he never appeared!!!

That was because he seemed to jump over the Florida Straits without even touching water (well he did but not for long)...