Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

This reminds me of Hurricane Kate in 85 to an extent...

What do you mean? Explain more than one sentence please.

[hial2]

I see a more W. motion.

Wobbles are common...In a few hours,we'll be in the middle of "Wobble Watch" mode..

[wxman57]

Another thing to watch is the 50-degree dew points spilling south across Florida now behind the front. This cool, dry air will spill off the coast of Florida ahead of Noel, probably killing off convection on the western side of the storm as it approaches (not that there's much convection west of the center now). So you'll probably be facing a "half storm" with gusty winds on the west primarily due to the pressure gradient west of the front in combination with the low pressure of Noel to the east.

[Aquawind]

Another thing to watch is the 50-degree dew points spilling south across Florida now behind the front. This cool, dry air will spill off the coast of Florida ahead of Noel, probably killing off convection on the western side of the storm as it approaches (not that there's much convection west of the center now). So you'll probably be facing a "half storm" with gusty winds on the west primarily due to the pressure gradient west of the front in combination with the low pressure of Noel to the east.

Meanie.. We need the rain. Dashing my dreams..

[wxman57]

I see a more W. motion.

Wobbles are common...In a few hours,we'll be in the middle of "Wobble Watch" mode..

It's hard to see a wobble if you can't even see the center on satellite (particularly IR satellite).

[wxman57]

Another thing to watch is the 50-degree dew points spilling south across Florida now behind the front. This cool, dry air will spill off the coast of Florida ahead of Noel, probably killing off convection on the western side of the storm as it approaches (not that there's much convection west of the center now). So you'll probably be facing a "half storm" with gusty winds on the west primarily due to the pressure gradient west of the front in combination with the low pressure of Noel to the east.

Meanie.. We need the rain. Dashing my dreams..

Sorry about that, but cool, dry air flowing out into the Atlantic east of Florida does not = lots of rain for Florida. To get much rain in Florida, Noel would have to shoot the FL straits and move up the west coast, and that's not likely at all given the mid to upper-level wind flow across the Gulf and Florida.

[Brent]

Another thing to watch is the 50-degree dew points spilling south across Florida now behind the front. This cool, dry air will spill off the coast of Florida ahead of Noel, probably killing off convection on the western side of the storm as it approaches (not that there's much convection west of the center now). So you'll probably be facing a "half storm" with gusty winds on the west primarily due to the pressure gradient west of the front in combination with the low pressure of Noel to the east.

Yeah, I noticed that. Fall is coming to Florida(It's been here for 5 days and it's GREAT, we're headed into the 30's tonight)! I don't really think this will be a big deal at all.

[Aquawind]

Another thing to watch is the 50-degree dew points spilling south across Florida now behind the front. This cool, dry air will spill off the coast of Florida ahead of Noel, probably killing off convection on the western side of the storm as it approaches (not that there's much convection west of the center now). So you'll probably be facing a "half storm" with gusty winds on the west primarily due to the pressure gradient west of the front in combination with the low pressure of Noel to the east.

Meanie.. We need the rain. Dashing my dreams..

Sorry about that, but cool, dry air flowing out into the Atlantic east of Florida does not = lots of rain for Florida. To get much rain in Florida, Noel would have to shoot the FL straits and move up the west coast, and that's not likely at all given the mid to upper-level wind flow across the Gulf and Florida.

Well Said.. I just wanted a dream a bit longer..even if it's a real long shot.

[fci]

This reminds me of Hurricane Kate in 85 to an extent...

What do you mean? Explain more than one sentence please.

Yes I am looking forward to why there is a reminder of Kate.
Map below:



Came from the east heading west and was a GOM storm.
Not seeing the relationship here.

[jaxfladude]

USA to Hurricane GODS: Try again next year(2008)!"

[Blown Away]

The NHC track is W of all the major models. It will interesting to see the 18z models.

[cycloneye]

fci,unless it was related to the intensity of Kate,which was a major cane,that also doesnt compares with NOEL at all.

[jlauderdal]

The NHC track is W of all the major models. It will interesting to see the 18z models.

No its not. The NHC track is: "THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY."

[ronjon]

At 15mph, Noel will cover at least 300 miles of longitude moving NW. So in 24 hours Noel is going to be near the SFL coast (80W) at that rate. Noel is going to have to slow down to miss SFL, NHC has Noel east of WPB Wednesday evening, 48 hours from now.

I'd say with the center reformation today (further west) and the rather rapid rate of movement that it's becoming increasingly likely for a S FL or keys landfall, with a possible stall immediately inland, at the coast, or just offshore until the trough picks it up in 72 hrs. 00Z global models will have the updated position and speed so tomorrow morning might be an exciting day. I still don't expect this to be more than a moderate-to-strong tropical storm with an outside chance at a minimal hurricane.

[Blown Away]

The NHC track is W of all the major models. It will interesting to see the 18z models.

No its not. The NHC track is: "THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY."

I know this does not include all:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Evil Jeremy]

Latest GFDL should come within the hour.

[Blown Away]

At 15mph, Noel will cover at least 300 miles of longitude moving NW. So in 24 hours Noel is going to be near the SFL coast (80W) at that rate. Noel is going to have to slow down to miss SFL, NHC has Noel east of WPB Wednesday evening, 48 hours from now.

I'd say with the center reformation today (further west) and the rather rapid rate of movement that it's becoming increasingly likely for a S FL or keys landfall, with a possible stall immediately inland, at the coast, or just offshore until the trough picks it up in 72 hrs. 00Z global models will have the updated position and speed so tomorrow morning might be an exciting day. I still don't expect this to be more than a moderate-to-strong tropical storm with an outside chance at a minimal hurricane.

I don't either, but the convection is building tonight and it seems the peak intensity is when Noel is near SFL coast.

[hial2]

Another thing to watch is the 50-degree dew points spilling south across Florida now behind the front. This cool, dry air will spill off the coast of Florida ahead of Noel, probably killing off convection on the western side of the storm as it approaches (not that there's much convection west of the center now). So you'll probably be facing a "half storm" with gusty winds on the west primarily due to the pressure gradient west of the front in combination with the low pressure of Noel to the east.

Yeah, I noticed that. Fall is coming to Florida(It's been here for 5 days and it's GREAT, we're headed into the 30's tonight)! I don't really think this will be a big deal at all.

No need for sarcasm..If you read the post,he says the dew points will drop BEHIND the front,not before it gets here..I'd bet that Mr X-57, who has studied weather,is correct...You can have your viewpoint,but your post was uncalled for.

[Evil Jeremy]

The 8PM is going to come in soon.

[fci]

:uarrow: fci,unless it was related to the intensity of Kate,which was a major cane,that also doesnt compares with NOEL at all.

I'm with you Luis.
Looking for vortex to explain.