Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

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loro-rojo
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1561 Postby loro-rojo » Mon Oct 29, 2007 8:41 pm

By looking at the radar loop coming from Cuba, it seems that the circulation is very close to land and it might even make landfall in Cuba.
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#1562 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Oct 29, 2007 8:41 pm

cycloneye on that radar noel looks very close to cuba
but i might be seeing it wrong...
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1563 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 29, 2007 8:44 pm

Winds very gusty tonight: Just measured a 22mph gust
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1564 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Oct 29, 2007 8:46 pm

Blown_away wrote:Winds very gusty tonight: Just measured a 22mph gust


Was at Hobe Sound Beach about 5:00 and it was Windy 30-35 MPH..You should go..Worth the trip..
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1565 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 29, 2007 8:49 pm

I'm 1 mile from Hobe Sound Beach. I'm sure the winds are 30-35mph at the beach. The winds were nothing this morning but have picked up this afternoon.
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1566 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 29, 2007 8:53 pm

loro-rojo wrote:By looking at the radar loop coming from Cuba, it seems that the circulation is very close to land and it might even make landfall in Cuba.

The NHC track had Noel passing very close to Cuba, I don't think it will landafall in Cuba and seems to be following the NHC track, which takes it WNW.
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1567 Postby boca » Mon Oct 29, 2007 8:56 pm

The 00NAM is starting to roll in.
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#1568 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Oct 29, 2007 8:59 pm

The 00z models will be very important to see.
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#1569 Postby NcentralFlaguy » Mon Oct 29, 2007 9:02 pm

yes I agree, they all should be initialized pretty well this time.
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1570 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 29, 2007 9:08 pm

I found a 00Z preliminary NHC track on the NCEP server (OFCI track). It's right of the 21Z track. No guarantee NHC will go with this track at 03Z, but it indicates what they were thinking a few hours ago:

Image
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL Models Thread

#1571 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 29, 2007 9:08 pm

I found a 00Z preliminary NHC track on the NCEP server (OFCI track). It's right of the 21Z track. No guarantee NHC will go with this track at 03Z, but it indicates what they were thinking a few hours ago:

Image
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#1572 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Oct 29, 2007 9:10 pm

I have NE winds at 21mph
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1573 Postby destruction92 » Mon Oct 29, 2007 9:11 pm

Still nothing much to worry about in terms of Noel doing any damage to the U.S. Derek Ortt sees Noel encountering shear very soon...like 24 hours maybe, "This forecast only brings Noel to 60KT since WV imagery is suggesting that Noel may encounter shear in about 24 hours."

I think Floridians don't need to be overly concerned. Although it doesn't hurt to make preparations, by no means should there be concern.
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL Models Thread

#1574 Postby mascpa » Mon Oct 29, 2007 9:13 pm

Too close for comfort
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL Models Thread

#1575 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 29, 2007 9:14 pm

Here's a plot of more models. I removed the BAM models as they're not good in the subtropics or when the environment is changing. Most dynamic models are included (no EC, of course). Pretty strong consensus in a sharp turn by Andros Island.

Image
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1576 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 29, 2007 9:16 pm

Here's a plot of mostly 00Z dynamic models. I removed the BAM models as they're not good in the subtropics or when the environment is changing. Most dynamic models are included (no EC, of course). Pretty strong consensus in a sharp turn by Andros Island. Of course, consensus doesn't always = right, but it does show that they all see the same steering currents.

Image
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1577 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Mon Oct 29, 2007 9:17 pm

People should be concerned anytime a tropical system comes close.
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1578 Postby destruction92 » Mon Oct 29, 2007 9:18 pm

wxman57 wrote:I found a 00Z preliminary NHC track on the NCEP server (OFCI track). It's right of the 21Z track. No guarantee NHC will go with this track at 03Z, but it indicates what they were thinking a few hours ago:

Image



great, so Noel's track will shift east! Hallelujah! :P
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Derek Ortt

#1579 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 29, 2007 9:19 pm

thats the 21Z track interpolated onto the 0Z initial position
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1580 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 29, 2007 9:19 pm

destruction92 wrote:Still nothing much to worry about in terms of Noel doing any damage to the U.S. Derek Ortt sees Noel encountering shear very soon...like 24 hours maybe, "This forecast only brings Noel to 60KT since WV imagery is suggesting that Noel may encounter shear in about 24 hours."

I think Floridians don't need to be overly concerned. Although it doesn't hurt to make preparations, by no means should there be concern.


Why say this? It doesn't add anything to the discussion. You aren't a forecaster and you certainly aren't a voice of authority. If you want to forecast then post a disclaimer. I suspect at this point you're seriously wishing Noel doesn't get close to Florida because of the numerous claims you made yesterday.
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