Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[fci]

thats the 21Z track interpolated onto the 0Z initial position

What does that mean? (for us laypeople who don't speak in "Z's")

[Vortex]

Consensus is strong but trend the last 6-12 hours is further west. Looks like the Mega-High and how fast it moves east will be the deciding factor. Either way SE Florida is preparing for a "gradient" storm. NWS Miami is calling for sustaines winds of at least 40mph with gusts in excess of 50.

[RL3AO]

thats the 21Z track interpolated onto the 0Z initial position

What does that mean? (for us laypeople who don't speak in "Z's")

21z = 5pm EDT, 0z= 8pm EDT

[Chacor]

5 pm track from NHC and 8 pm initial position.

[hurricanefloyd5]

My local Weather guy said he "EXPECTS" TS Watches to be issued tonight for SEFlorida

[wxman57]

thats the 21Z track interpolated onto the 0Z initial position

I remember talk of this "OFCI" track on the tropical storms email list a month or so ago. It's not the 21Z track shifted to account for the 00Z position, as the 00Z position is west of the 21Z track but the northern part of the OFCI track is right of the 21Z track. What the forecaster at NHC said was that they sometimes input "test" or "preliminary" tracks into the system ahead of the advisory time. These tracks sometimes get picked up as part of the model dataset and appear like this one did. But the actual 03Z NHC track could be different (and probably will). Taking a look at that model consensus, though, I find it hard to believe they'll modify the track much. The OFCI track is closer to model consensus, though.

[destruction92]

Here's a plot of more models. I removed the BAM models as they're not good in the subtropics or when the environment is changing. Most dynamic models are included (no EC, of course). Pretty strong consensus in a sharp turn by Andros Island.

Thanks wxman57! Florida looks to be in the clear now!

[RL3AO]

My local Weather guy said he "EXPECTS" TS Watches to be issued tonight for SEFlorida

Probably. The NHC hinted at it earlier.

[Evil Jeremy]

Here's a plot of more models. I removed the BAM models as they're not good in the subtropics or when the environment is changing. Most dynamic models are included (no EC, of course). Pretty strong consensus in a sharp turn by Andros Island.

Thanks wxman57! Florida looks to be in the clear now!

Destruction, you really have to stop following every thing in front of you as if it is fact. Florida is not out of the clear yet. If the storm still moves westward, it could still clip us. Anything can happen in the tropics.

[NcentralFlaguy]

Here's a plot of mostly 00Z dynamic models. I removed the BAM models as they're not good in the subtropics or when the environment is changing. Most dynamic models are included (no EC, of course). Pretty strong consensus in a sharp turn by Andros Island. Of course, consensus doesn't always = right, but it does show that they all see the same steering currents.

Well there is no arguing with that .lol thats a pretty tight consensus ....

[wxman57]

Consensus is strong but trend the last 6-12 hours is further west. Looks like the Mega-High and how fast it moves east will be the deciding factor. Either way SE Florida is preparing for a "gradient" storm. NWS Miami is calling for sustained winds of at least 40mph with gusts in excess of 50.

The problem with the 21Z NHC track was that bogus initial NW movement straight toward Andros Island. Note all the models show a WNW movement then a turn northward. As for Miami winds, with the cool air spilling south down the east coast, they'd get almost those kind of winds even if Noel wasn't there. Noel may help get the winds up an extra 5-10 mph. Winds offshore Miami are already at 35 mph and Noel is over 450 miles away.

[wxman57]

Destruction, you really have to stop following every thing in front of you as if it is fact. Florida is not out of the clear yet. If the storm still moves westward, it could still clip us. Anything can happen in the tropics.

That is true, EJ. By the way, the City of Plantation Florida is actually one of our clients. I've been over to the fire station a few times to speak with them in past years.

[destruction92]

Here's a plot of mostly 00Z dynamic models. I removed the BAM models as they're not good in the subtropics or when the environment is changing. Most dynamic models are included (no EC, of course). Pretty strong consensus in a sharp turn by Andros Island. Of course, consensus doesn't always = right, but it does show that they all see the same steering currents.

Well there is no arguing with that .lol thats a pretty tight consensus ....

Florida looks to be in the clear according to Wxman57 and this latest global guidance. More good news.

[JTD]

Here's a plot of more models. I removed the BAM models as they're not good in the subtropics or when the environment is changing. Most dynamic models are included (no EC, of course). Pretty strong consensus in a sharp turn by Andros Island.

Thanks wxman57! Florida looks to be in the clear now!

Models change. Yesterday this was supposed to recurve WELL east of Florida. Today, it is a much closer call. History is littered by dramatic track adjustments.

FWIW, I'm not sold on an Florida impact but to say it is in the clear is a disputable statement.

[JTD]

Looks like no watches for Florida at 11?

000
WTNT21 KNHC 300231
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0300 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE PROVINCE OF CIEGO DE
AVILA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.

INTEREST IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 75.0W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 75.0W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 74.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.2N 76.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 23.3N 77.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.4N 78.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 33.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 38.0N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 75.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 300231
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...NOEL PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING OVER HISPANIOLA...TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY TUESDAY...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE PROVINCE OF CIEGO DE
AVILA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.

INTEREST IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY
TUESDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR ABOUT 305
MILES...490 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THESE
RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.2 N...75.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

INTEREST IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY
TUESDAY.


From the 11 PM Advisory.

[NcentralFlaguy]

I wouldnt say in the clear, maybe a little better, I remember a tight consensus like that for Katrina toward the panhandle/alabama area we all know what happened from there, things can and do change.

[fci]

5 pm track from NHC and 8 pm initial position.

So the map is showing that the 8 PM position is EAST of where they thought it would be??

[JTD]

...Noel producing heavy rain over portions of the southeastern
Bahamas...heavy rains continuing over Hispaniola...tropical storm
watch may be required for Southeast Florida early Tuesday...

at 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the government of Cuba has extended the
Tropical Storm Warning westward to include the province of Ciego de
Avila. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the Cuban
provinces of Camaguey...Las Tunas... Holguin...and Guantanamo.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the central and
southeastern Bahamas...including the Turks and Caicos Islands.

At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has
been discontinued.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northwestern
Bahamas.

Interest in southern Florida should monitor the progress of Noel. A
tropical storm watch may be required for Southeast Florida early
Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Noel was
located near latitude 21.2 north...longitude 75.0 west or about 305
miles...490 km...south-southeast of Nassau.

Noel is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours. On this track...the center of Noel should move between the
central Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba tonight and
tomorrow.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.
Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.
Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20
inches over Hispaniola...with possible isolated maximum totals of
30 inches. Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with possible
maximum amounts of 15 inches...are possible over southeastern
Cuba...and the central and southeastern Bahamas. These
rains...particularly in Hispaniola...are expected to cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 1100 PM EDT position...21.2 N...75.0 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts