Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Vortex]

Nearly identical to the 18Z GFS...The fact is even if the GFS verified and stayed Just E folks along the SE FL coast and points North for 100-200 miles would experience sustained TS force winds with gusts likely over 50mph as a result of a very strong Gradient. This reminds me of the Thanksgiving storm in the 80's along the East coast of florida with gusts between 50-60 and major coastal flooding/power outages.

[bocadude86]

wind forecast continue to be increased for my area.. nws miami now says winds to 44mph on tues night and weds

[destruction92]

westward shift again.

Jeremy, what caused the NHC to adjust their track east at the 11 PM advisory if the GFS and GFDL keep shifting west like you said?
Refer to this time lapse loop of all the NHC tracks for Noel: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_3W.shtml

[Blown Away]

The mtns. of Cuba seem to be stopping development in the south quad. It still seems to be heading 310-ish, very near Cuba coast, at least what i can see from radar.

If Noel goes S of Andros, it will be hard to miss SFL at that point.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 300406
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 07 20071030
035400 1905N 06842W 3926 07730 0415 -165 -191 165010 011 006 003 00
035430 1906N 06844W 3926 07733 0419 -165 -193 164010 010 010 003 00
035500 1907N 06847W 3926 07735 0419 -165 -193 158008 008 014 003 00
035530 1908N 06849W 3926 07730 0414 -165 -188 161007 007 005 003 00
035600 1909N 06852W 3926 07728 0409 -165 -188 176008 009 000 004 00
035630 1910N 06854W 3926 07724 0406 -165 -191 182010 010 000 003 00
035700 1911N 06857W 3926 07727 0412 -166 -188 177011 011 000 004 00
035730 1912N 06859W 3925 07731 0414 -165 -189 174011 011 000 004 00
035800 1913N 06902W 3926 07732 0417 -167 -190 171010 011 005 003 00
035830 1914N 06904W 3926 07731 0414 -168 -187 166010 010 001 004 00
035900 1915N 06907W 3926 07729 0413 -166 -187 163010 010 020 001 00
035930 1915N 06909W 3926 07722 0408 -165 -185 164009 010 100 000 03
040000 1916N 06912W 3926 07719 0405 -165 -183 171011 011 999 999 03
040030 1917N 06915W 3926 07726 0405 -165 -187 177011 011 087 000 23
040100 1918N 06917W 3924 07726 0999 -168 -182 174012 012 999 999 23
040130 1919N 06919W 3926 07719 0404 -165 -186 180013 014 151 000 00
040200 1920N 06922W 3926 07726 0409 -165 -185 186014 015 042 000 00
040230 1921N 06924W 3926 07723 0407 -165 -182 184015 015 026 000 00
040300 1922N 06927W 3926 07720 0405 -165 -183 179016 016 012 003 00
040330 1923N 06930W 3926 07718 0403 -165 -181 178015 016 000 003 00
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

westward shift again.

Jeremy, what caused the NHC to adjust their track east at the 11 PM advisory if the GFS and GFDL keep shifting west like you said?
Refer to this time lapse loop of all the NHC tracks for Noel: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_3W.shtml

Because of the tight cluster of models at the time. Normally, the GFS sets the base for the other models to build off of, so if the other models continue the westward shift as they have been doing all day, FL should get some TS Watches come 5AM.

[Rainband]

Florida is only 160 miles wide

http://www.netstate.com/states/geograph ... graphy.htm

[destruction92]

wind forecast continue to be increased for my area.. nws miami now says winds to 44mph on tues night and weds

Looking at the animated loop of Noel's wind field's project path, ALL of Noel's tropical storm force winds will stay well off Florida's coastline....See for yourself: http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

[hurricanefloyd5]

The mtns. of Cuba seem to be stopping development in the south quad. It still seems to be heading 310-ish, very near Cuba coast, at least what i can see from radar.

If Noel goes S of Andros, it will be hard to miss SFL at that point.

I have to agree and I feel that it could very well do that!!!!! What dose everyone think about parts of central florida get a TS Watch/Warnings?????

Reports from my local tv weather guy said gusts as high as 50mph were reoported!!!!

[Vortex]

Latest cuban radar appears to indicate part of the circulation over cuba....Should pull away from the area of land that jets out in a few hours. Not sure if were going to get a fix on the center from recon as the center appears to be in cuban air space.

[gatorcane]

South Floridians I keep reiterating this will be a close call --- Noel is now organizing as we speak..

We must hope for that turn to the N soon.......

Latest IR loop showing lots of deep reds now as he continues to move closer to SE Florida....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Vortex]

The mtns. of Cuba seem to be stopping development in the south quad. It still seems to be heading 310-ish, very near Cuba coast, at least what i can see from radar.

If Noel goes S of Andros, it will be hard to miss SFL at that point.

I have to agree and I feel that it could very well do that!!!!! What dose everyone think about parts of central florida get a TS Watch/Warnings?????

Reports from my local tv weather guy said gusts as high as 50mph were reoported!!!!

I think E/Central florida will have a gale warning for tom afternooon through Wednesday...

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 300416
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 08 20071030
040400 1924N 06932W 3926 07716 0404 -165 -183 178015 015 000 004 00
040430 1924N 06935W 3926 07721 0405 -165 -178 182013 014 000 005 00
040500 1925N 06937W 3926 07719 0404 -165 -176 189011 012 000 005 00
040530 1926N 06940W 3926 07719 0405 -165 -179 181012 012 000 004 00
040600 1927N 06942W 3926 07723 0407 -164 -179 190013 014 000 004 00
040630 1928N 06945W 3926 07719 0404 -162 -181 197012 012 000 004 00
040700 1929N 06947W 3927 07720 0406 -164 -180 203011 012 004 004 00
040730 1930N 06950W 3925 07724 0407 -164 -176 204011 013 026 001 00
040800 1931N 06952W 3924 07724 0406 -164 -173 198014 014 106 000 00
040830 1932N 06955W 3927 07721 0409 -165 -176 202011 012 999 999 03
040900 1933N 06957W 3926 07732 0406 -165 -173 192014 016 999 999 23
040930 1933N 07000W 3924 07732 0999 -165 -170 183014 015 999 999 23
041000 1934N 07002W 3923 07733 0999 -165 -172 176018 019 999 999 23
041030 1935N 07005W 3926 07728 0999 -165 -167 172017 018 999 999 23
041100 1936N 07007W 3925 07725 0408 -162 -174 168017 018 999 999 03
041130 1937N 07010W 3926 07724 0408 -159 -174 169018 019 143 000 03
041200 1938N 07012W 3926 07724 0409 -159 -176 174015 016 160 000 00
041230 1939N 07015W 3925 07726 0410 -160 -183 172014 015 126 000 00
041300 1940N 07017W 3926 07724 0409 -161 -178 174013 014 089 000 00
041330 1941N 07020W 3924 07726 0410 -160 -178 185009 010 128 000 00
$$
;

[gatorcane]

Latest close-up IR shows the center looks to be wobbling west, west of the forecast point...its hard to tell where the center is but it sure looks like more westerly movement to me...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[RL3AO]

The convection remains a good distance north of the center. I don't expect much from recon tonight.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 300426
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 09 20071030
041400 1941N 07022W 3926 07723 0409 -162 -176 194009 010 142 000 03
041430 1942N 07025W 3926 07730 0999 -164 -176 194012 012 999 999 23
041500 1943N 07027W 3923 07731 0999 -163 -176 190016 017 999 999 23
041530 1944N 07030W 3926 07723 0402 -159 -179 194020 020 999 999 03
041600 1945N 07032W 3926 07723 0407 -156 -179 199021 022 153 000 03
041630 1946N 07035W 3926 07723 0407 -159 -177 200024 025 141 000 00
041700 1947N 07037W 3924 07723 0406 -160 -176 193024 026 087 000 00
041730 1948N 07040W 3926 07720 0405 -163 -173 186025 026 075 000 00
041800 1949N 07042W 3926 07718 0404 -161 -176 184026 027 116 000 00
041830 1950N 07045W 3927 07725 0999 -157 -181 189023 025 147 000 23
041900 1951N 07047W 3926 07726 0999 -155 -184 192021 022 153 000 23
041930 1952N 07050W 3926 07718 0999 -155 -180 189021 022 999 999 23
042000 1953N 07052W 3926 07718 0999 -159 -180 187021 022 999 999 23
042030 1954N 07055W 3926 07718 0999 -160 -179 190019 020 999 999 23
042100 1955N 07057W 3923 07726 0406 -163 -179 189018 019 156 000 03
042130 1956N 07100W 3924 07723 0404 -160 -183 182018 019 136 000 00
042200 1957N 07102W 3924 07721 0404 -160 -184 175018 018 100 000 00
042230 1958N 07105W 3923 07723 0403 -160 -186 165015 016 033 004 00
042300 1959N 07108W 3924 07723 0404 -161 -186 162017 018 022 005 00
042330 2000N 07110W 3924 07723 0404 -164 -177 152017 017 023 005 00
$$
;

[Stratosphere747]

Recon will at least be able to get a fix and relation of movement. This will go a long way to any watches that would be put up with the next full advisory.

[Grease Monkey]

Maybe that will cause the center to reform further north.

[gatorcane]

Can somebody point out this phantom "short-wave" trough that the models are latching on to? I've looked at many maps and don't see it. Here is the latest mean mid-level steering flow:



Here is the latest WV image:

[RL3AO]

gator, it is in Southern Manitoba/Ontario. At least thats where the models that develop it have it now.