Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

Almost along the coast and appears to be moving between westnorthwwest to northwest.

[gatorcane]

gator, it is in Southern Manitoba/Ontario. At least thats where the models that develop it have it now.

Yes but I don't buy it at all. Just look at the WV loop? You cann see some low heading ESE near the Great lakes but the flow continues to be zonal. I would expect to see some front diving down through the Midwest towards the SE and I don't see it...

Based on the speed of Noel she will make it to SE Florida before that shortwave can get there and looking at the RADAR loop Luis posted she continues to move between W and WNW over the past couple of hours....

hmmmm..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[RL3AO]

What do you make of this? Is that it in the NE?

[hurricanefloyd5]

Almost along the coast and appears to be moving between westnorthwwest to northwest.

Hay cycloneye did this storm make landfall for the first time or the 2nd time or whatever time it made landfall if all all??? Is it making landfall now or not you think????

[gatorcane]

I think the models are latching on to that Low NW of Maine that should continue to dig SE and erode the Bermuda high....

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 300436
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 10 20071030
042400 2001N 07113W 3923 07724 0404 -163 -187 149016 016 026 006 00
042430 2002N 07115W 3924 07720 0403 -160 -184 154018 018 026 007 00
042500 2003N 07118W 3923 07724 0403 -164 -181 159018 019 026 006 00
042530 2004N 07120W 3924 07718 0401 -160 -183 155017 017 026 005 00
042600 2005N 07123W 3923 07720 0401 -162 -182 154016 017 027 004 00
042630 2006N 07125W 3923 07719 0400 -165 -180 151015 015 024 004 00
042700 2007N 07128W 3924 07719 0400 -163 -179 155014 014 024 005 00
042730 2008N 07131W 3924 07718 0400 -164 -180 158013 014 025 004 00
042800 2009N 07133W 3923 07718 0399 -165 -181 163015 016 024 005 00
042830 2009N 07136W 3924 07717 0398 -164 -182 165015 016 024 005 00
042900 2010N 07138W 3924 07717 0398 -162 -183 164016 016 022 004 00
042930 2011N 07141W 3924 07715 0397 -160 -181 166017 017 020 004 00
043000 2012N 07143W 3926 07710 0394 -160 -184 159016 017 021 004 00
043030 2014N 07146W 3926 07710 0394 -164 -183 153016 016 016 005 00
043100 2015N 07148W 3924 07714 0365 -164 -181 153016 017 016 004 00
043130 2016N 07151W 3924 07697 0379 -164 -181 160016 016 013 004 00
043200 2017N 07154W 3924 07692 0381 -165 -183 161016 016 013 004 00
043230 2018N 07156W 3924 07705 0387 -163 -180 169015 016 013 004 00
043300 2019N 07159W 3923 07709 0390 -160 -173 180020 020 014 006 00
043330 2020N 07201W 3923 07707 0388 -161 -175 172017 019 017 005 00
$$
;

[gatorcane]

Looks like it may be making Landfall in Cuba soon based on that radar loop....

[cycloneye]

Hay cycloneye did this storm make landfall for the first time or the 2nd time or whatever time it made landfall if all all??? Is it making landfall now or not you think????

If you are talking about Cuba,it hasnt made landfall in that island.

[Vortex]

Once it passes that jagged part of the island it should be almost entirely back over water. The radar is almost 2 hours old.

[Tropics Guy]

Almost looks like it is skirting the NE Cuban coast.

[deltadog03]

GFS looks a bit suspect.....1 it shows noel almost stopping for a bit and then moving to the NE...(don't know if i buy that yet) Also, it does show some stregthening as well. Still don't know if it gets with 50 miles or so to the coast, but gonna be close for sure.

[Blown Away]

My estimate, 21.4N/75.4W following the NHC forecast points. I don't see a Cuba landfall. The most important key IMO, is Noel is still moving WNW at a pretty good clip. The game rides on how far W does Noel make it before interacting w/ the trough. All the models slow Noel to a crawl near Andros then turn him away from SFL.

[Vortex]

00Z Nogaps brings it almost to the coast of SE Florida before the N/NE turn

00Z CMC/GFS 30-90 miles E of SE FL.

Either way a close call...

Nogaps at H+48

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=048

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 300446
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 11 20071030
043400 2021N 07204W 3924 07707 0387 -164 -177 169015 015 020 006 00
043430 2022N 07206W 3923 07706 0387 -164 -177 176014 015 020 005 00
043500 2023N 07209W 3924 07706 0387 -162 -171 183015 016 020 005 00
043530 2024N 07211W 3923 07707 0386 -164 -175 174017 020 022 005 00
043600 2025N 07214W 3924 07703 0385 -164 -177 178022 022 023 004 00
043630 2026N 07216W 3923 07705 0385 -162 -174 170020 022 023 004 00
043700 2027N 07219W 3924 07703 0385 -160 -182 167018 019 025 003 00
043730 2027N 07221W 3924 07701 0384 -160 -185 168019 021 023 004 00
043800 2028N 07224W 3926 07705 0390 -159 -196 176020 022 022 004 00
043830 2029N 07226W 4007 07559 0386 -149 -237 173019 020 024 004 00
043900 2030N 07229W 4155 07282 0370 -134 -203 167021 021 023 004 03
043930 2031N 07232W 4369 06903 0348 -117 -191 164020 021 999 999 03
044000 2032N 07234W 4584 06537 0329 -096 -123 161019 020 999 999 03
044030 2033N 07237W 4816 06153 0305 -083 -090 166018 020 999 999 03
044100 2034N 07239W 5060 05766 0282 -058 -079 175017 019 999 999 03
044130 2035N 07242W 5315 05378 0258 -030 -059 174018 018 999 999 03
044200 2036N 07244W 5577 04993 0087 -019 -022 178022 022 999 999 03
044230 2037N 07246W 5824 04644 0081 +001 +000 172025 027 999 999 03
044300 2038N 07249W 6060 04323 0088 +018 +018 172027 028 999 999 03
044330 2039N 07251W 6295 04015 0089 +036 +036 166029 030 999 999 03
$$
;

Descending to operational altitude.

[gatorcane]

this is way too close.

We have a strengthening system moving towards South Florida with models predicting that a short wave trough (yet fully devloped) will erode the mid atlantic ridge.

Either tomorrow AM we wake up to models bringing it very close or over south florida warranting watches/warnings or the models shift more to the right and we breathe a sigh of relief.

Too close for comfort I'd have to say...

somehow I think most people are not doing much as far as preparations and banking on it recurving....

[AJC3]

It's pretty clear to see on the 00Z 500MB analysis charts. There's a weak H50 short wave trough over the lower MS valley.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaRAOB_500.gif

This will get kicked eastward over the next couple days as a much stronger short wave trough deepens upstream. This is forecast by all the global models to erode the western portion of the Atlantic ridge by 36 hours. If there was H50 forecast charts with 10M contours, it would make it much easier to see.

[Blown Away]

00Z Nogaps brings it almost to the coast of SE Florida before the N/NE turn

00Z CMC/GFS 30-90 miles E of SE FL.

Either way a close call...

Nogaps at H+48

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=048

Any significant difference in this run from the last?

[fci]

Remember that Ernesto seemed to get stuck on the Northern Coast of Cuba. What was supposed to be a short trek turned into hours and hours so I would not put it past Cousin Noel to take longer than expected to clear Cuba.

As for the "phantom" trough that Gatorcane is talking about; wxman was WAY too sure of himself for me to question his opinion. He has been talking in terms of "will" turn and not "might" turn.

Just my $.02.

I'll see what happens in the AM.
Maybe no watches at all......??
Out of here!

[gatorcane]

It's pretty clear to see on the 00Z 500MB analysis charts. There's a weak H50 short wave trough over the lower MS valley.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaRAOB_500.gif

This will get kicked eastward over the next couple days as a much stronger short wave trough deepens upstream. This is forecast by all the global models to erode the western portion of the Atlantic ridge by 36 hours. If there was H50 forecast charts with 10M contours, it would make it much easier to see.

But in a couple of days Noel could be on SE Florida's doorstep. The timing of when this shortwave gets kicked east is absolutely critical.

[cpdaman]

i think there is much too much land interaction for this to get going in any capacity and other wise if it were to get enough distance it would probably be headed well to the east of s. fl (i.e getting enough distance from cuba now would require a turn NNW imo)..............unless of course it were to reform to the NE and then move further wnw longer than anticipated

but as AJC3 spoke of the conditions along the coast of florida will not be in the clear

gust will be up to 50 or so coastal flooding will be a problem

and as someone mentioned earlier the worst coastal flooding and seas usually are north of the miami to fort lauderdale corridor because the angle of the bahamas and the bahamian bank (shallow reef) blocks swell unless they are coming in at a extreme north angle

palm beach should be a go for some of the roughest conditions, especially just north in jupiter. NE winds at a 35 degree angle usually effect beaches all the way down to delray with the worst of the swells, where as 45 degree angle winds (long fetch) will usually reach down to lake worth but no further, at least this has been my experience with winds and seas in south central florida

i would ask WXMAN or AJC3, or DEREK if based on the forecast position of the high pressure and noel respectively if he could plot or guesstimate the angle of ENE, NE, or NNE winds over the area in the next couple days?