Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[destruction92]

When and which model runs come next?

I am curious as to what the new EURO and ECMWF have to say...

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 300536
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 16 20071030
052400 2132N 07523W 9702 00299 0039 +230 +230 107035 035 037 004 00
052430 2133N 07524W 9711 00290 0039 +230 +227 105036 037 033 007 00
052500 2134N 07526W 9708 00294 0039 +229 +228 104037 038 035 008 00
052530 2135N 07528W 9706 00296 0040 +222 +222 100037 039 036 008 00
052600 2136N 07530W 9707 00294 0040 +224 +224 099034 035 034 008 00
052630 2136N 07531W 9708 00294 0041 +218 +218 097031 035 029 012 00
052700 2137N 07533W 9702 00299 0041 +210 +210 091028 030 030 013 00
052730 2138N 07535W 9710 00292 0041 +212 +212 097030 031 031 012 00
052800 2139N 07536W 9706 00296 0041 +211 +211 097029 030 033 012 00
052830 2140N 07538W 9709 00292 0041 +208 +208 102029 031 035 023 00
052900 2141N 07540W 9712 00289 0044 +191 +191 102031 031 052 032 00
052930 2142N 07541W 9710 00289 0043 +193 +193 092033 034 048 023 00
053000 2143N 07543W 9712 00287 0043 +194 +194 089040 043 048 017 00
053030 2143N 07545W 9707 00296 0045 +195 +195 083044 044 049 008 00
053100 2144N 07547W 9706 00296 0045 +197 +197 082045 049 041 014 00
053130 2145N 07548W 9702 00302 0046 +199 +199 075044 046 042 011 00
053200 2146N 07550W 9708 00296 0044 +214 +214 073043 045 033 008 00
053230 2147N 07552W 9707 00297 0044 +218 +218 071042 043 033 007 00
053300 2148N 07553W 9705 00299 0045 +218 +218 069041 044 035 003 00
053330 2149N 07555W 9712 00293 0046 +220 +220 071040 041 033 005 00
$$
;

49 kt FL, 52 kt SFMR. 1004mb pressure.

[Stratosphere747]

"Both" come out at the exactly the same time.

About 2 or so.

[destruction92]

"Both" come out at the exactly the same time.

About 2 or so.

thanks for the info...in case no one posts them, which website can I find the models at?

[gatorcane]

he continues to become better organized tonight and is moving WNW at a pretty decent clip. I estimate about 10-12mph or so.

I also keep looking at the WV imagery and see that the trough over Florida is not making ANY progress south tonight and the shortwave over Mississippi is not moving east at all.

So I think Noel should continue to move on the left-hand side of the model guidance envelope and should continue to track in the general direction of SE Florida which is consistent with the NHC track.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 300546
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 17 20071030
053400 2149N 07557W 9709 00298 0046 +219 +219 070040 041 033 003 00
053430 2150N 07558W 9708 00298 0046 +226 +215 070040 041 033 005 00
053500 2151N 07600W 9709 00298 0047 +225 +221 069041 042 033 005 00
053530 2152N 07602W 9709 00300 0047 +223 +223 069042 044 034 004 00
053600 2153N 07603W 9711 00298 0048 +222 +222 069043 044 036 004 00
053630 2154N 07605W 9708 00302 0049 +220 +220 067044 045 034 005 00
053700 2155N 07607W 9708 00301 0048 +226 +216 068046 047 033 007 00
053730 2155N 07608W 9708 00302 0049 +224 +216 070046 046 035 005 00
053800 2156N 07610W 9704 00305 0049 +225 +208 073046 047 036 006 00
053830 2157N 07612W 9708 00301 0050 +223 +223 069041 042 035 006 00
053900 2158N 07613W 9705 00305 0051 +223 +223 066040 042 031 007 00
053930 2159N 07615W 9714 00298 0053 +215 +215 060045 048 037 007 00
054000 2200N 07617W 9704 00308 0053 +216 +216 061041 042 035 009 00
054030 2201N 07618W 9703 00309 0054 +213 +213 064042 043 036 010 00
054100 2201N 07620W 9707 00306 0054 +220 +220 057042 044 032 003 00
054130 2202N 07621W 9709 00304 0054 +221 +221 058045 046 035 004 00
054200 2203N 07623W 9707 00307 0055 +223 +223 058045 046 033 005 00
054230 2204N 07625W 9705 00311 0056 +223 +223 057045 047 034 004 00
054300 2205N 07626W 9708 00309 0057 +225 +220 059045 046 034 006 00
054330 2206N 07628W 9710 00308 0057 +226 +219 059045 047 033 004 00
$$
;

Can someone else please take over?

[ericinmia]

"Both" come out at the exactly the same time.

About 2 or so.

thanks for the info...in case no one posts them, which website can I find the models at?

It's the same model... http://www.ECMWF.int Click on the model link mid way down on the left. Then click north america, and then the time frame you want from the drop down list.

[Vortex]

I wouldn't be surprised if NHC doesn't upgrade to TS watches but instead NWS miami issues a Gale warning...

[dwsqos2]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 300546
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

...NOEL MOVING VERY CLOSE OR OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTEREST IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER
TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR FROM HOLGUIN
CUBA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST...VERY NEAR OR OVER
PUNTA LUCRECIA ON THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...NOEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE SAME FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
NORTH OF COAST OF CUBA TODAY.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THESE
RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...21.2 N...75.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[gatorcane]

Vortex latest NHC advisory says Noel may be over the coast of Cuba now......

wow is all I have to say....who would have thought it would make it as far west as the coast of Cuba?

[Vortex]

Several Global models did indicate that it would move over or skirt the coast. It may be temporary though. On the other hand the ridge won't reach it's pull potential impacts on the storm until later Tuesday so there is a distinct possiblity it remains over land until Tuesday evening..I think it's a 50/50 chance either way

[Tertius]

URNT15 KNHC 300556
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 18 20071030
054400 2206N 07629W 9708 00310 0058 +225 +222 058043 045 033 004 00
054430 2207N 07631W 9706 00311 0059 +229 +216 061046 047 033 004 00
054500 2208N 07633W 9706 00314 0060 +228 +219 060044 045 034 005 00
054530 2209N 07634W 9706 00314 0061 +227 +221 058043 045 033 004 00
054600 2210N 07636W 9705 00315 0062 +229 +220 058043 044 031 004 00
054630 2210N 07638W 9709 00311 0062 +229 +218 058043 044 031 004 00
054700 2211N 07639W 9706 00315 0063 +229 +218 059044 046 035 003 00
054730 2212N 07641W 9707 00315 0063 +230 +219 062045 047 035 004 00
054800 2213N 07642W 9708 00314 0064 +229 +220 064046 047 034 004 00
054830 2214N 07644W 9706 00318 0065 +229 +222 065044 045 031 004 00
054900 2215N 07646W 9704 00319 0066 +228 +225 062040 043 028 007 00
054930 2216N 07647W 9707 00316 0066 +226 +225 059039 042 030 008 00
055000 2216N 07649W 9708 00315 0066 +229 +220 048038 039 029 005 00
055030 2217N 07651W 9697 00327 0067 +228 +222 044037 041 027 006 00
055100 2218N 07652W 9710 00317 0067 +227 +220 049041 042 028 005 00
055130 2219N 07654W 9706 00319 0068 +225 +218 051044 045 027 004 00
055200 2219N 07655W 9710 00317 0070 +225 +219 049044 045 028 004 00
055230 2220N 07657W 9707 00321 0072 +217 +217 050044 045 031 005 00
055300 2221N 07658W 9707 00322 0072 +221 +221 049042 043 028 006 00
055330 2222N 07700W 9711 00319 0073 +224 +220 051042 045 029 003 00

[Vortex]

Noel stronger at 2am

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

[BigA]

Interesting 55 mph winds. I dont think I've ever seen a system with 55 mph winds. Seems always that it is 50 or 60. I think that is because of the knots conversion.

[destruction92]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7102912!!/

According to that picture, SoFla is by no means spared from the brunt of Noel....BUT, IS THIS A FRAME FROM THE NEW EURO???

[Stratosphere747]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007102912!!/

According to that picture, SoFla is by no means spared from the brunt of Noel....BUT, IS THIS A FRAME FROM THE NEW EURO???

No. That is from the 12z run.

[Vortex]

latest radar confirms Noel is over land for now...

[destruction92]

Noel stronger at 2am

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

Has the NHC track changed since 11 PM...I have been informed that the NHC occasionally does tweek forecast tracks during intermediate advisories.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_3W.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

[ericinmia]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007102912!!/

According to that picture, SoFla is by no means spared from the brunt of Noel....BUT, IS THIS A FRAME FROM THE NEW EURO???

Use the other drop down box on the right to choose the model run time. Your link shows 12UTC or 12z... wait for the new 00UTC run.

[Cyclenall]

Interesting 55 mph winds. I dont think I've ever seen a system with 55 mph winds. Seems always that it is 50 or 60. I think that is because of the knots conversion.

I think that is 47.5 knots then. I don't know if they have donw this before, lol.