Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[jlauderdal]

the Cuban radars seem to be at least 2 hours behind for some reason, i guess it doesnt update fast enough. Weird what it looks like though.

castro isnt going to make it easy on the usa so he flips the delay switch on and off to mess with the NHC. for all we know that radar is current.

[Thunder44]

This changes the entire story now. Those mountains are gonna rip 'er up, and that, coupled with the SW wobbles, is going to send this towards Florida, although it should be weak by then if that were to happen.

The post above is not official or endorsed by Storm2k, it is just my prediction. Refer to all products from the NHC for storm information.

This doesn't change much. The GFS showed a track along the coast of the Cuba, before the turn north. I don't think it will go inland enough for the mountains to "rip 'er up".

[cycloneye]

Anyone has a graphic or a map of the topografy of Cuba? I know that in the eastern part,there are very high mountains,but in the central part of Cuba the mountains are not very high.And the center is reaching central Cuba.

[HURAKAN]

Central Cuba is a plain, not mountanous.

[wxman57]

It's pretty clear to see on the 00Z 500MB analysis charts. There's a weak H50 short wave trough over the lower MS valley.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaRAOB_500.gif

This will get kicked eastward over the next couple days as a much stronger short wave trough deepens upstream. This is forecast by all the global models to erode the western portion of the Atlantic ridge by 36 hours. If there was H50 forecast charts with 10M contours, it would make it much easier to see.

How about a 500mb chart with 5 meter contours? I added in 500mb winds for good measure. Noel will be running into a different upper-level wind pattern as it approaches Andros Island, which should result in a slowing in forward wind speed followed by a turn to the north. Fairly similar to Floyd in 1999 as far as the confidence in the turn. But this time, the center won't head north to the Carolinas.



By the way, Noel is right on track. Check out my forecast track from 17Z yesterday:

[Evil Jeremy]

What does this mean for Florida? It is already following the southernmost part of the 5AM cone, and it is possibly further south than what the cone said is possible.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

It has passed the tallest mountains.

[caneman]

It's pretty clear to see on the 00Z 500MB analysis charts. There's a weak H50 short wave trough over the lower MS valley.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaRAOB_500.gif

This will get kicked eastward over the next couple days as a much stronger short wave trough deepens upstream. This is forecast by all the global models to erode the western portion of the Atlantic ridge by 36 hours. If there was H50 forecast charts with 10M contours, it would make it much easier to see.

How about a 500mb chart with 5 meter contours? I added in 500mb winds for good measure. Noel will be running into a different upper-level wind pattern as it approaches Andros Island, which should result in a slowing in forward wind speed followed by a turn to the north. Fairly similar to Floyd in 1999 as far as the confidence in the turn. But this time, the center won't head north to the Carolinas.



By the way, Noel is right on track. Check out my forecast track from 17Z yesterday:

I would disagree. Noel looks West and just South of your plot. Further, Noel looks to moving quite a bit faster and is more South and West of NHC 5:00 plots. Looks like it has moved SW and inland which wasn't part of yours or NHC's forecastNot saying this will affect the eventual path but you can't deny current obs like that radar shot.

[Evil Jeremy]

Quote from South Florida's latest Hazardous Weather Outlook:

IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE FORECAST WINDS ARE
THEREFORE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INNER CIRCULATION OF NOEL BUT
RATHER WITH THE LARGE SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NOEL AND A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...A WIND
ADVISORY...AND NOT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...IS NOW IN EFFECT
BECAUSE THE STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WELL IN ADVANCED AND AWAY FROM THE STORM. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK...THIS ADVISORY COULD BE
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING LATER TODAY IF THE
FORECAST TRACK BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST PLACING SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA WITHIN THE INNER CIRCULATION OF NOEL.

[cycloneye]

It looks like is inside Cuba now.The tallest mountains are well SE of the center.

[Evil Jeremy]

It looks very organized, but the amount of time it spends over Cuba is going to be crucial for Florida.

[Thunder44]

It definitely looks inland now in Cuba (as of 5:15am EDT), according to radar. But the 6z GFS has it inland over Central Cuba at this time too:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif

It also looks like a partial eyewall is forming north of the center.

[cycloneye]

The radar has to be refreshed.I have the image up to 5:45 AM EDT.

[HURAKAN]

[Thunder44]

According to radar, the center is now running south of the NHC track. It looks like it heading more west than WNW. They keep it off Cuba for the next 12hrs:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

[stormchazer]

Interesting watching Noel as it appears to be tracking generally westward over Cuba. Will this keep Noel weaker and possible change the steering flow it follows allowing it to get further west, albeit weaker? Someone smarter then me might could answer, is it possible that Noel may split with the MLC moving in line with the models and the LLC traveling on into the Carribean?

Very interesting.

[tgenius]

I really don't want this storm to drop rain tommorow, it's halloween! My wife and I are getting dressed up too.

[HURAKAN]

HOLLOWEEN SELECTIONS FOR SE FLORIDA:

[cycloneye]