Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[bocadude86]

He better start moving more nw fast or this will be passing a lot closer to the Fla coast then the current thinking

[HURRICANELONNY]

Having a problem getting into the chat room. Oh well. I wake up to the cone more east and Noel heading more west. What's up with that. Will the 8.am be the same cone???

[Blown Away]

Based on radar, it looks like Noel is outside the NHC cone at this point.

[bocadude86]

Yea Im thinking they are going to have to issue some sort of watch for South Florida, I read on another message board that a pro met also said he wouldnt be surprised to see a hurricane watch issued for the miami area.

[NcentralFlaguy]

good morning. well the system is obviously inland now and the " supposed front that will steer this north seems to be still stationary .. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html check NCEP fronts for the graphics. actually looks farther north than yesterday. oh well who knows you guys in s. Florida may have a close call.

[tgenius]

If they would issue watches I doubt it would come at 8am, most likely at 11am, as that would give it another 3 hours of possible "west" motion which would be about 40-50 miles. With the forward speed, a few hours of west can possibly shift that track a bit.

[RL3AO]

Could the Cuban radar be screwing up? I guess we will find out because visibles are almost here.

[wzrgirl1]

where are those advisories anyway...thought they usually come out around 30 minutes earlier then the scheduled time

[Evil Jeremy]

Those are the full advisories that you are thinking about. The Intermideate advisories come out at around the top of the hour, plus or minus 10 or so minutes.

[wzrgirl1]

patience i know patience

[Thunder44]

Could the Cuban radar be screwing up? I guess we will find out because visibles are almost here.

I don't think so. The surface obs this morning in the Holguin and Camaguey support the center inland, between those two cities:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUHG.html
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUCM.html

[NcentralFlaguy]

Also dew points are up just a bit in central to southern part of the state, mine are down a little in the north so I know the dry air is filtering down through my area, mine went from 64 yesterday to 61 today in Ocala. however cape is up to 68 from 64 I believe. Melbourne/West palm up to 70 respectivly. I mention this because wxman said yesterday this was a good indicater of the dry air filtering down behind the front ... so would this indicate the that the dry air has not filtered as far south as previously thought?

[HURRICANELONNY]

ANYBODY ELSE HAVING TROUBLE GETTING IN THE CHAT ROOM

[cycloneye]

301159
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

...NOEL MOVING WESTWARD OVER EASTERN CUBA...

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...AND
GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...RADAR DATA FROM HOLGUIN CUBA INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER CUBA NEAR
LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF HOLGUIN CUBA...AND ABOUT 275 MILES...445
KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
HOWEVER...NOEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD EMERGE
OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA BY TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE
THE CENTER OF NOEL MOVES BACK OVER WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ALL OF THE
BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA... ARE EXPECTED
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...21.0 N...76.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA

[cycloneye]

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...RADAR DATA FROM HOLGUIN CUBA INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER CUBA NEAR
LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF HOLGUIN CUBA...AND ABOUT 275 MILES...445
KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
HOWEVER...NOEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD EMERGE
OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA BY TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE
THE CENTER OF NOEL MOVES BACK OVER WATER.

[cpdaman]

as i stated last nite , these are about the co-ordinates i though i would be waking up 2
circa 8am
21.3 , 76.4 just over cuban coast

turns out the storm moved WSW and it's now 21 76.8

tropical development from this was sparred again thanks to cuba, too much land interaction, even if it were to get off the coast, the mountain are inhibiting inflow, HOWEVER like

WXMAN and AJC3 said this was all about gradient here in s. fl and this really doesn't change much IMO it just means gust will be lower. won't be surprised if the LLC gets ripped apart

[Canelaw99]

From NHC 8am advisory:
"NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
HOWEVER...NOEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD EMERGE
OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA BY TONIGHT OR TOMORROW."

It's moving at 12 mph, and barely on Cuba. What's their thinking it won't emerge until tonight or tomorrow???? That doesn't seem to jive with their cone, IMO.....I'm very confused by this today

Here's another thought....the mm5 model on this site http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ seems to be showing what Noel is doing - the dip west/southwest into Cuba, but it's interesting to watch what happens towards the end of it. As the run progresses, the storm basically ends up in the same place, which may mean these same areas aren't in the clear yet......

[Jevo]

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...21.0 N...76.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH

hmmmmm I wonder what the Wesward movement is going to do for the cone.... Personally Id rather this storm stay off the coast.... to the east and start hauling azz north... Im trying to buy a house

[hiflyer]

Jevo...I was planning to do a new floor and kitchen this week on mine....everything I read says the more it stays down on Cuba and farther west it goes down there then the possibility increases for us to get a little 'extra' weather here in SoFla. SST's look still to be cooking down in the straits so there is a shot at some 'energy' as it bumps along the coast.

[NcentralFlaguy]

Actually its been sliding wsw ...