Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[wxman57]

I would disagree. Noel looks West and just South of your plot. Further, Noel looks to moving quite a bit faster and is more South and West of NHC 5:00 plots. Looks like it has moved SW and inland which wasn't part of yours or NHC's forecastNot saying this will affect the eventual path but you can't deny current obs like that radar shot.

Noel's center is within about 20-30 miles of the track I sketched on the map. I actually have the track touching the Cuban coast in spots. And I also drew it freehand with PaintShop. Not bad for nearly a 24 hour forecast of a poorly-organized center. Average 24-hr track error is 75-100 miles. That changes nothing, however. Steering currents are setting up for a sharp turn before Florida. Keep alert in south Florida, but I think all of Noel's squalls will stay to your east. You'll still have 30-45 mph winds all down the coast through Thursday with that strong high to your north.

[tgenius]

If it gets destroyed by Cuba, wouldn't that still leave the rain over South FL? I am not concerned about the wind, I am about the rain and Halloween (You'd think I was 10, heh) as I RARELY dress up and my wife convinced us to be pirates.

[cpdaman]

unless this thing is going to stall just s or se of florida i don't see it developing any when ever it decides to end it's cuban vacation

the cuban coast turns more nw at the longitude the center is crossing, combined with her west to wsw track/jog overnite and i see this thing over cuba for a whole day i.e 3 am last nite till late tonite. i don't think there will be much of a LLC left

the mountains will take their toll, and i believe the land interaction will increase as it "bury's it self into the "land of fidel"

must be related to ernesto , none did as they were told, and both may end up enjoying cuba a bit too much for their own good (their LLC's)

may be more rain for fl , but i think this will take a sharp turn wednesday sometime

[bocadude86]

Seems to be doing what the 00z gfs showed last night...

[bocadude86]

what time do the new runs come out?

[Nimbus]

The 5 Am NHC advisory said the center of Noel is still over water. Proximity to land is limiting intensification some.
Looks like a slower motion to the W or WNW *should* give a short wave time to develop and get down into the southeast.

The NHC does not like making forecasts that involve troughs and tropical systems its like trying to predict what an Orangutan with a golf club is going to do.

[wxman57]

First visible loops show a mid-level spin near 21.1N/75.2W, well east of the reported LLC and out over the water. Convection is wrapping around this mid-level center. Possibly a center reformation today? Could use a few more shots in the loop and recon data wouldn't hurt.

[cycloneye]

It continues to move west.I would not be surprised if it emerges to the Caribbean sea.

[wxman57]

Seems to be doing what the 00z gfs showed last night...

And the GFDL, which brought the center well inland over Cuba (to the south coast in fact), stalled it, then shot it off to the NNE east of Andros Island. Steering currents are changing near Florida, so the exact track doesn't matter today.

[wxman57]

It continues to move west.I would not be surprised if it emerges to the Caribbean sea.

Also, a continued movement inland by the LLC might make it more likely the LLC would dissipate and reform to the ENE back near the heavy convection offshore, which is what I mentioned a few posts above. It's done it before. Weak, sheared systems often lose their LLCs and they reform farther north under the convection.

[boca]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think that what Florida is getting now is all what well probably experience out of Noel. We are being affected by the high and Noel causing beach erosion. On water vapor loop I see the shortwave over NW Louisiana moving SE faster than Noel is presently moving. I was hoping for rain out of this. I don't think that will materialize. Here's the water vapor loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[Thunder44]

It continues to move west.I would not be surprised if it emerges to the Caribbean sea.

Also, a continued movement inland by the LLC might make it more likely the LLC would dissipate and reform to the ENE back near the heavy convection offshore, which is what I mentioned a few posts above. It's done it before. Weak, sheared systems often lose their LLCs and they reform farther north under the convection.

I wouldn't be suprised if the LLC did reform back over water. It's done so every time it gets near or over land. Although the NHC may have to adjust their track westward today as long the current LLC exists and moves westward.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 301218
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1218 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NOEL (AL162007) 20071030 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071030 1200 071031 0000 071031 1200 071101 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 76.9W 21.4N 78.9W 21.5N 80.3W 21.3N 80.8W
BAMD 21.0N 76.9W 21.5N 78.3W 22.1N 79.4W 22.8N 79.6W
BAMM 21.0N 76.9W 21.3N 78.5W 21.5N 79.6W 21.8N 79.9W
LBAR 21.0N 76.9W 21.7N 78.6W 22.7N 80.0W 23.5N 80.8W
SHIP 45KTS 50KTS 55KTS 60KTS
DSHP 45KTS 36KTS 44KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071101 1200 071102 1200 071103 1200 071104 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.8N 80.7W 19.6N 80.4W 18.5N 82.9W 16.7N 87.2W
BAMD 23.9N 78.6W 28.6N 71.2W 36.8N 59.5W 46.1N 55.4W
BAMM 22.2N 79.1W 24.2N 75.2W 26.8N 69.5W 29.8N 59.7W
LBAR 25.2N 80.9W 27.4N 78.3W 31.9N 72.7W 34.0N 63.1W
SHIP 61KTS 62KTS 51KTS 41KTS
DSHP 51KTS 52KTS 40KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.0N LONCUR = 76.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 20.9N LONM12 = 74.5W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 19.2N LONM24 = 73.0W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 100NM

Moving west at 270 degrees.

[cycloneye]

30/1145 UTC 21.0N 76.7W OVERLAND NOEL -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Thunder44]

Latest radar, show the center overland becoming disorganized. The thunderstorms north of Cuba are starting to show more spin.

[destruction92]

I would disagree. Noel looks West and just South of your plot. Further, Noel looks to moving quite a bit faster and is more South and West of NHC 5:00 plots. Looks like it has moved SW and inland which wasn't part of yours or NHC's forecastNot saying this will affect the eventual path but you can't deny current obs like that radar shot.

Noel's center is within about 20-30 miles of the track I sketched on the map. I actually have the track touching the Cuban coast in spots. And I also drew it freehand with PaintShop. Not bad for nearly a 24 hour forecast of a poorly-organized center. Average 24-hr track error is 75-100 miles. That changes nothing, however. Steering currents are setting up for a sharp turn before Florida. Keep alert in south Florida, but I think all of Noel's squalls will stay to your east. You'll still have 30-45 mph winds all down the coast through Thursday with that strong high to your north.

Wxman57, that cold front you depicted over Florida is too far south and should be blue and red striped (since this is a stalled out front). That graphic is deceiving....I don't know where you got it from.

[Evil Jeremy]

What are the current probobilities of a direct impact on South Florida?

[NcentralFlaguy]

Destruction you were on here long after I was ..you didnt get much sleep .lol your right by the way it is stationary, and I was trying to point out a page or two ago that the dew points were rising a little down the coast. prob doesnt make a difference though, you can see the trough developing now .. i think?

[wxman57]

Wxman57, that cold front you depicted over Florida is too far south and should be blue and red striped (since this is a stalled out front). That graphic is deceiving....I don't know where you got it from.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Mexico.gif

Front was sketched in by hand. Didn't take the time to indicate it was moving less than 6 mph (stationary). The map you posted has the front in the wrong position - too far north. It's clearly south of Tampa but the leading edge is not a sharp boundary. Doesn't matter where the front is, though, it's the mid and upper winds along and ahead of the front that steer storms, not the front.

[boca]

What are the current probobilities of a direct impact on South Florida?

Not too high look at the water vapor loop and look at the short wave moving SE by TX/NW Loiusiana area.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html