Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Thunder44]

In the high res satellite it almost looks like there is low level spin close to the south coast of Cuba http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-76&zoom=1&type=Animation&info=vis

Yeah, I just saw that. Santiago, Cuba is winds just switched to S at 17mph (8:52am EDT).

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUCU.html

Montego Bay, Jamaica is reporting WNW at 7mph (9:15am EDT).
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJS.html

I wonder if that's old LLC from yesterday.

[dixiebreeze]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/1145 UTC 21.0N 76.7W OVERLAND NOEL

30/0545 UTC 21.0N 75.2W T3.0/3.0 NOEL

29/2345 UTC 20.9N 74.6W T2.5/2.5 NOEL

29/1745 UTC 20.4N 73.6W T1.5/2.0 NOEL

[NcentralFlaguy]

That would be interesting to watch...what if the LLC gets into the
caribbean it is almost headed there while the MLC goes
north of cuba?

same thing happened yesterday.. I believe the llc just kinda washed out.

[Evil Jeremy]

the 11AM Advisory is going to be very intresting.

From the 5AM Discussion:

A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MAY STILL BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TODAY
IF NOEL MOVES FATHER WESTWARD THAN ANTICIPATED AND THE WINDS
EXPAND.

Both of which have happened.

[Thunder44]

In the high res satellite it almost looks like there is low level spin close to the south coast of Cuba http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-76&zoom=1&type=Animation&info=vis

Yeah, I just saw that. Santiago, Cuba is winds just switched to S at 17mph (8:52am EDT).

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUCU.html

Montego Bay, Jamaica is reporting WNW at 7mph (9:15am EDT).
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJS.html

I wonder if that's old LLC from yesterday.

Looking at it again, I think it just another little swirl or eddy forming just off the coast, spining around the main center inland in Cuba , just SSE of Camuguey now. Looks like it's still spinning to the WSW on radar.

[tolakram]

So first time back this morning, Noel is over Cuba, the NHC track forecast mentions Hurricane for the first time, and we're still wondering if it's going to hit south Florida. I is confused!

wxman57, as always, thanks for your maps and the effort you put in to helping us understand what's going on.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'm going with wxman57 forecast with the center relocation

[wxman57]

So first time back this morning, Noel is over Cuba, the NHC track forecast mentions Hurricane for the first time, and we're still wondering if it's going to hit south Florida. I is confused!

wxman57, as always, thanks for your maps and the effort you put in to helping us understand what's going on.

When you figure out what's REALLY going on, let me know.

Seriously, look at the outflow boundary pushing northward just off the coast of Cuba. It originated when squalls near the center collapsed and dissipated. I doubt if Noel has a well-defined center now, but I think it'll reform along the NHC track later today. Just follow the convection, not the LLC. The center will always follow the convection.

[MiamiensisWx]

Does anyone have the latest updates from Max Mayfield at CBS 4-Miami/Fort Lauderdale? He has been excellent with Noel and I always appreciate his insight.

[NcentralFlaguy]

this thing just "spits "centers out and sends them flying across the carib. lol

[Blown Away]

WXMAN57
Will the result of this center relocation to ENE be the NHC track shifting to the right?

[Sanibel]

Even if it gets back into the Caribbean the front WILL send it N.

Haiti is getting heavy rainbands trailing behind. Storm is still sheared.

I disagree with WX57. That is the center moving across Cuba.

[chadtm80]

[eastcoastFL]

this is soooo coming to florida

[MiamiensisWx]

Noel will endure a huge test to its organization. I think the center reformation further ENE may mark the beginning of the gradual transition to a non-tropical system (via higher shear) and the NHC's progged turn.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir2.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

[alienstorm]

Just heard that a TS Watch will be issued at 11 AM from Palm Beach to Craig Key.

[tolakram]

Just heard that a TS Watch will be issued at 11 AM from Palm Beach to Craig Key.

woops,

you need a source for that. It's not good to start rumors.

[alienstorm]

WSVN Channel 7

[NcentralFlaguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I can see the mid-level turning but i still dont see any evidence of low level clouds feeding into it, the existing llc looks to me like its trying to hold on and emerge into the carib. pulling the convection with it.

[Vortex]

Upon analysis this morning it would not be of any great surprise if Noel continues to west and briefly enters the NW carribean before turning North. This scenario has been supported by the ECMWF and the 12Z NAM rolling in...

H+24


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024l.gif