Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

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DESTRUCTION5
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#1981 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:33 am

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#1982 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:34 am

Image
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1983 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:37 am

looking great. Looks like the center is back over water in that west blob, but then again, that is just how it looks.
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#1984 Postby drezee » Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:40 am

Sat still shows it heading W
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#1985 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:40 am

Closer look:

Image

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

There is an obvious rotation over Cuba but to the north there is another rotation, could be a MLC. Nonetheless, convection is increasing over the rotation over water.
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1986 Postby drezee » Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:41 am

drezee Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2007 12:01 pm wrote:IMO, it need to decouple for a day or two and move almost due W in order to strike FL...



Interesting
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1987 Postby NcentralFlaguy » Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:43 am

Im not sure im buying into a turn right now ive looked at all the sat images and radar from cuba I dont see much of a turn at the moment. maybe slowing a little to make a turn. there could be a case made for that scenario
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#1988 Postby NcentralFlaguy » Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:48 am

actually with this link hurakan posted if you stop it and advance the frames one at a time you can see the center moving offshore now right around that little gulf..also the mid level rotation is beginning to look a little more impressive now to maybe it will overtake the circulation after all. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater
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#1989 Postby Weatherboy1 » Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:51 am

I have no doubt this thing will turn -- the question is when will the turn occur and how sharp will it be. Will it be far enough W and just shallow enough of a turn to "clip" South FL? Or will it start turning to the NW then N almost immediately, bypassing FL entirely.

And I agree with vortex, we have an LLC still that is within a couple hours of emerging into the NW Carib unless it changes speed or direction very soon -- as well as an MLC that is somewhat decoupled but still generally following the LLC in overall direction.
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#1990 Postby NcentralFlaguy » Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:55 am

I believe it is located @20.6 77.6 , I think thats it.
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1991 Postby MGC » Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:56 am

Having just returned from a fantastic vacation in Key West....

As several posters have noted, the MLC and LLC have decoupled. The LLC appears to be still headed west while the MLC appears to be headed on a NW motion. Considering the shear Noel is under, I would not be surprised if the LLC continues west and spins down and dissipates with the MLC becoming dominate with a new LLC forming to the north of the current LLC. If this does occur, I don't see a significant threat to Florida ATT. However, if the currentl LLC remains the dominant feature then Florida could be at risk......MGC
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1992 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:57 am

I could be incorrect, but it looks like Noel is performing surprisingly well under strong UL divergence (shear). The outflow boundary appears to be weakening, while low-level inflow increases in the western semicircle. Additionally, the MLC is moving WNW/NW with the 850 mb (low-level) flow. It looks like convection is increasing over the MLC, too. Regardless, it appears to be organizing per visible imagery. I think there are some hints of low-level rotation near 22N and 75.9W (just north of the northern coast of Cuba). It looks like the overall low-level circulation is ill-defined, with two low-level swirls (near NHC position and north of Cuba).

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

Please offer your thoughts... thanks in advance.
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Re:

#1993 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:59 am

NcentralFlaguy wrote:actually with this link hurakan posted if you stop it and advance the frames one at a time you can see the center moving offshore now right around that little gulf..also the mid level rotation is beginning to look a little more impressive now to maybe it will overtake the circulation after all. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater


Hmmm, I don't see that at all. :)

What I see is the llc over Cuba and beginning to move a little north of west in the last frame or so (which is pretty inconclusive). Looking through the holes in the upper clouds I see surface movement still rotating around the LLC in Cuba and no signs of a new LLC forming.

My observations are usually wrong, seriously, but that's what I see, :lol:
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1994 Postby Gustywind » Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:59 am

curtadams wrote:Well, even if the gyrations bring something to FL it won't be anything tropical. Check out this shear forecast. Very high shear over all of Florida for the entire forecast period. Any tropical system approaching Florida this week will be destroyed almost instantly.


Maybe... quite agree with you ...absolutely i dont see much on this system for the moment , maybe some people have forgot the high shear values doting the area in vicinity of Florida :roll: :P ...for my untrained eyes...or my eyes are deceiving me :double: :eek: :cheesy:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html 50Kts of shear :eek: :?: i will be very dubious to see this system as a storms status....
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Hope i'm wrong too :spam: :wink:
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1995 Postby Steve H. » Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:02 pm

I believe you are correct Miawx, and the Lcc is beginning to show a slightly north component now (275/280). Hard to see since the island is oriented to the NW. But Noel's structure is very good, with the convection following right along, and it won't take much to get cranking when its hits the water; Time = <18 hours IMO.
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Re: Re:

#1996 Postby NcentralFlaguy » Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:05 pm

tolakram wrote:
NcentralFlaguy wrote:actually with this link hurakan posted if you stop it and advance the frames one at a time you can see the center moving offshore now right around that little gulf..also the mid level rotation is beginning to look a little more impressive now to maybe it will overtake the circulation after all. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater


Hmmm, I don't see that at all. :)

What I see is the llc over Cuba and beginning to move a little north of west in the last frame or so (which is pretty inconclusive). Looking through the holes in the upper clouds I see surface movement still rotating around the LLC in Cuba and no signs of a new LLC forming.

My observations are usually wrong, seriously, but that's what I see, :lol:
I can see that also , you may be right now that I look again.
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1997 Postby Bgator » Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:05 pm

I kind of see the MLC taking over now too, heading on a 290 direction, at the moment. Its pretty windy here in Miami, thanks to the pressure gradient, i took videos :) im obsessed! Its so nice out right now!
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MiamiensisWx

Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#1998 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:09 pm

Okay... I can clearly see a low-level circulation off northern Cuba (beneath the MLC and convection).

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater

"The center follows the convection."
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL Models Thread

#1999 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:13 pm

12z CMC

:uarrow: :uarrow:

Another close call for South Florida from the 12z Canadian.
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#2000 Postby tgenius » Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:13 pm

I'm curious what the 5pm Disco is going to say, and if NHC will even mention adding watches (or putting them into effect) I just wonder if the fact tomorrow is Halloween will have any influence on adding watches due to the number of kids out trick or treating.
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