Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[bucman1]

Does the West Coast of Florida need to start thinking about Tropical storm conditions are will the track take it to far east?

[eastcoastFL]

this thing is going to smack the east coast of florida probably wednesday evening

[wxman57]

I guess I don't understand the thinking of posters on the visible sat pix. C adams is correct in that the LCC is clearly visible near the south coast of Cuba, but it looks like its taking a turn to the WNW or NW as it crawls slowly along. It may be there at least another 6-10 hours before emerging off the north coast. This is indeed the LLC, and a healthy one at that. Patience folks! We all know that these seem to take forever to get across Cuba, but Noel should survive.

LLC over Cuba has become much better-defined now near the NHC intermediate position. I see very good banding (though no convection) into this low. Movement is clearly WNW now with hints of a NW turn. No evidence of an LLC beneath the heavy convection to the north. Maybe the LLC will just move NW and rejoin the convection? Aren't sheared storms fun! [img][/img]

Regardless of where the center is or reforms, it should run up against a wall very soon and begin turning northward.

[Bgator]

Is is the shear that is not letting anything get going to the West of teh storm...It looks like there is an invisible wall.

[Evil Jeremy]

I guess I don't understand the thinking of posters on the visible sat pix. C adams is correct in that the LCC is clearly visible near the south coast of Cuba, but it looks like its taking a turn to the WNW or NW as it crawls slowly along. It may be there at least another 6-10 hours before emerging off the north coast. This is indeed the LLC, and a healthy one at that. Patience folks! We all know that these seem to take forever to get across Cuba, but Noel should survive.

LLC over Cuba has become much better-defined now near the NHC intermediate position. I see very good banding (though no convection) into this low. Movement is clearly WNW now with hints of a NW turn. No evidence of an LLC beneath the heavy convection to the north. Maybe the LLC will just move NW and rejoin the convection? Aren't sheared storms fun! [img][/img]

Regardless of where the center is or reforms, it should run up against a wall very soon and begin turning northward.

Should being the key word here. This storm has fooled us before, and it might again.

[Bgator]

WxMan, isnt the trough that is going to turn this storm, not even there yet?

[CrazyC83]

That 40 mph wind assumes the inland circulation is still indeed the center, which I don't think is correct. I think the real intensity is about 50-60 mph (45-50 kt).

[SouthFLTropics]

Let me throw a scenario out here:

I can clearly see the LLC over Cuba and in the latest visable frames it appears to be heading WNW to possibly NW. Now lets say that this gets back out over water and hooks up with the MLC and convection and begins to head NW towards FL. That gives this thing quite a bit of time over the Gulf Stream to pick up some steam. Hopefully the shear will impact it by then and will not allow it to intensify that much but if it doesn't we could have a pretty strong TS just offshore by tomorrow...Just a thought...

SFT

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET



Another model with a close call for South Florida.

Barbara,the timeframe is between 48-72 hours.

[gatorcane]

I guess I don't understand the thinking of posters on the visible sat pix. C adams is correct in that the LCC is clearly visible near the south coast of Cuba, but it looks like its taking a turn to the WNW or NW as it crawls slowly along. It may be there at least another 6-10 hours before emerging off the north coast. This is indeed the LLC, and a healthy one at that. Patience folks! We all know that these seem to take forever to get across Cuba, but Noel should survive.

LLC over Cuba has become much better-defined now near the NHC intermediate position. I see very good banding (though no convection) into this low. Movement is clearly WNW now with hints of a NW turn. No evidence of an LLC beneath the heavy convection to the north. Maybe the LLC will just move NW and rejoin the convection? Aren't sheared storms fun! [img][/img]

Regardless of where the center is or reforms, it should run up against a wall very soon and begin turning northward.

When Wxman....look at this nice visible loop...seems like it has no intention of making a 90 degree turn north anytime soon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[SouthFLTropics]

What is it with the Canadian model this year. It seems like it has something against Miami! Come on already! Canadian =

[cpdaman]

people have a tendency to rush LLC's off shore when they extrapolate their movement

i think we should anticipate another 17-18 hours like STEVE H and the NHC seem to be saying.

so that would be around daylite or just after on halloween.

I have been pleasantly surprised at how well the LLC has stuck together over cuba, however i have my doubts wether this will be able to still have a nice intact structure 18 hours from now.

either way it will be windy in florida , gusts in boca have been 38-40 last hour and during my walk down the beach it has gotten very rough and their is no beach left in some spots around high tide

bet winds will be gusting to 45 by evening

[SouthFLTropics]

I'll still give my vote of confidence to the NHC when it comes to tracking this sucker. I remember in 99 when they said that Floyd was going to turn. We kept watching it come towards us and kept waiting and waiting. Finally it turned at the last minute. Now albeit Floyd was a very well developed Cane and they had good data from recon so they felt very confident. Noel will turn, the question is when!

SFT

[wxman57]

Looks like it may be starting the turn now. Here's a high-res shot of the LLC over Cuba:

[Canelaw99]

Wxman - the 2pm advisory coordinates are 21N, not 17N

[ronjon]

The upper level trough over the NW GOM seems to me to be digging more southward than moving east. It looks to me that an upper level anticyclone is building over the eastern GOM and diminishing strong shear that had existed yesterday with the subtropical jet. It may be a temporary thing as the trough might get a boost further upstream by tomorrow but I'm not so sure that this storm is going to quickly scoot off to the NE - several models are hinting that it may stall near S FL for a day or two prior to getting picked up by the next shortwave.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL



The 12z GFDL has again the big recurve missing South Florida.

12z HWRF



The 12z HWRF has again the big recurve missing South Florida.

[wxman57]

Wxman - the 2pm advisory coordinates are 21N, not 17N

I don't know what you're talking about - reload the image.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Remember everyone. NO RECON over land. Because of some bearded sucker named Castro. Why doesn't he just die. The MLC looks more dominate then the LLC that supposedly is inland. Is it possible that the MLC at around 22n becomes the LLC?

[Canelaw99]

LOL - my eyes must be playing tricks on me Too much staring at Noel