Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[RL3AO]

It is 0.6 degrees, if the due west motion continues from emerging into the Caribbean.

[bocadude86]

a very slight shift to the west in the forecast track

[cycloneye]

A shift west but not by much.

[Cyclone1]

*pokes Noel*

What are you up to, Storm?!

I swear this storm can't make up its mind. If it keeps westward, it's heading into the Caribbean, which will bring it closer and closer to Florida.

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

The NHC is stil relying on the turn to begin tonight or tommorow. Tommorow will be the decision day in the context of how bad Florida is going to be effected.

[Patrick99]

So they are basically forecasting a hard right turn that should be happening.......right.....about.......NOW......

Sorry, I don't buy it.

[HURAKAN]

Noel's LLC looks pretty impressive for an overland system.

[RL3AO]

Is it possible for this shortwave/trough to "miss" Noel and not cause the turn to the north?

[Tropics Guy]

The shortwave trough that will finally force Noel to turn NW to N to NE is booking along Southeastward pretty good in Texas, but still should be at least 24-36 hours until it has a major effect on Noel, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Noel reach 80 W before making the sharp turn.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

TG

[HURAKAN]

They need to tell Vivian Brown where the LLC of Noel is. Not near the Atlantic coast of Cuba, but almost on the Caribbean coast.

[Evil Jeremy]

I think that the NHC is being bullish on the system. Noel is only a few hundred miles away from Florida, the shortwave that should pick it up is over a day again, their recurve is one that only happens once in a lifetime, their latest cone is on the far left side of the entire model avrage, they have been talking about putting up a watch for FL for 24 hours now, but they have not done so, and they expect this storm to just miss us?

[Cyclone1]

They need to tell Vivian Brown where the LLC of Noel is. Not near the Atlantic coast of Cuba, but almost on the Caribbean coast.

Haha, yeah I saw that. Keep in mind, Vivian brown is the same person who said Erin was in the Gulf of Texas.

[Tertius]

I think that the NHC is being bullish on the system. Noel is only a few hundred miles away from Florida, the shortwave that should pick it up is over a day again, their recurve is one that only happens once in a lifetime, their latest cone is on the far left side of the entire model avrage, they have been talking about putting up a watch for FL for 24 hours now, but they have not done so, and they expect this storm to just miss us?

You may have a point, but this forecast turn is far from a "once in a lifetime" event. It is rather the norm for a late season storm that approaches the US, at least that is my experience.

[JTD]

Anybody notice or care where Noel is headed after it's encounter, close or otherwise, with Florida. NHC has a direct hit on Nova Scotia.

[Evil Jeremy]

I think that the NHC is being bullish on the system. Noel is only a few hundred miles away from Florida, the shortwave that should pick it up is over a day again, their recurve is one that only happens once in a lifetime, their latest cone is on the far left side of the entire model avrage, they have been talking about putting up a watch for FL for 24 hours now, but they have not done so, and they expect this storm to just miss us?

You may have a point, but this forecast turn is far from a "once in a lifetime" event. It is rather the norm for a late season storm that approaches the US, at least that is my experience.

Well, I have never seen them forecast a 90 degree turn, when there is nothing to turn it for at least another day or so!

[seahawkjd]

They need to tell Vivian Brown where the LLC of Noel is. Not near the Atlantic coast of Cuba, but almost on the Caribbean coast.

I'm sorry. I find it disappointing that as much as the mods work to keep politics and personal attacks out of this forum that a mod would choose to use it to do both.

[Cyclone1]

Anybody notice or care where Noel is headed after it's encounter, close or otherwise, with Florida. NHC has a direct hit on Nova Scotia.

Well, by that point it'll be a fast moving extratropical low. At most, NS will get only 3-4 hours of stormy conditions. It'll be moving seemingly 60 mph according to the NHC's track.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 302058
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

THE CENTER OF NOEL IS STILL CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HAVING SPENT THE DAY MOVING ESSENTIALLY DUE WESTWARD...
ALTHOUGH AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 7 KNOTS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION
DERIVED FROM THE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THE CENTER COULD BE A BIT SOUTH OF OUR ADVISORY POSITION.

[HURAKAN]

They need to tell Vivian Brown where the LLC of Noel is. Not near the Atlantic coast of Cuba, but almost on the Caribbean coast.

I'm sorry. I find it disappointing that as much as the mods work to keep politics and personal attacks out of this forum that a mod would choose to use it to do both.

Sorry if you found it offensive but it was just a comparison not made to judge anyone.

[RL3AO]

Anybody notice or care where Noel is headed after it's encounter, close or otherwise, with Florida. NHC has a direct hit on Nova Scotia.

Well, by that point it'll be a fast moving extratropical low. At most, NS will get only 3-4 hours of stormy conditions. It'll be moving seemingly 60 mph according to the NHC's track.

But it could/likely have hurricane force winds.