Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Derek Ortt]

well, Jeremy

you may have mislead your teacher. Not really any other way that it can be said.

You should have relayed her the info from METEOROLOGISTS and directed her to that information. That is the responsible thing to do in this situation

Also, it can make the turn that is predicted quite easily. Storms can quickly turn moving at this slow speed

[destruction92]

I want everybody to look at this loop. This WV loop shows the short wave that should turn Noel N and then NE.....

See it digging down and moving East now over Texas? That is going to deflect Noel.....

that short wave is really trucking ESE now.......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Well, if Noel keeps moving west that short wave is going to have a harder time steering Noel to the NE......why?
1) Noel will be farther south.
2) Noel is a weaker system now since it has made an unexpected pro-longed visit to Cuba and friends. Weaker systems are not as vertically stacked as stronger systems and are less influenced by UPPER level winds in advance of short wave troughs.

[Vortex]

NHC track looks good..maybe a tad to far west.

[Cyclone1]

One of my teachers relies on me for all the hurricane and storm info. I talked to her earlier today, showed her some graphs, loops, and other data, and she knew there was no way that Noel would make that kind of turn.

Its very possible that Noel can make that kind of turn.....

Look at the turn Wilma made....just shot NE on a dime...

Wilma was turned by a very powerful, fast moving cold front. We lack one in this case.

[Derek Ortt]

A gale warning conveys the exact same threat as a TS warning. No need really for a TS warning. A gale warning is sufficient

[gatorcane]

Well, if Noel keeps moving west that short wave is going to have a harder time steering Noel to the NE......why?
1) Noel will be farther south.
2) Noel is a weaker system now since it has made an unexpected pro-longed visit to Cuba and friends. Weaker systems are not as vertically stacked as stronger systems and are less influenced by UPPER level winds in advance of short wave troughs.

1) Noel is already starting to show signs of a NW turn so I don't *think* he will be far enough south
2) Vertically-stacked or not that short wave is going to clean up everything from the Western Caribbean and NE......so Noel could be a gonner.....

[Bgator]

A gale warning conveys the exact same threat as a TS warning. No need really for a TS warning. A gale warning is sufficient

Though it may mean the same thing, do you think the comon person will realize that. When they hear TS watch/warning..They know what it means.

[Derek Ortt]

then what did people do before 1987?

TS warnings have only existed since 1987. before that, Gale Warnings were issued. Most would likely know what is a gale warning (in 10 years maybe not the case)

[destruction92]

One of my teachers relies on me for all the hurricane and storm info. I talked to her earlier today, showed her some graphs, loops, and other data, and she knew there was no way that Noel would make that kind of turn.

Not saying that it will, but it definitely can in the right setup. Wilma did something very similar around the same time of year as this and remember Charley? It'd be very unusual for a storm not to make a sharp right turn given that it's the end of October and there's very obviously a huge trough to the north of this.

Brent, there have been a lot of surprises this year. When models were predicting earlier systems of this year to feel the influences of troughs, nothing materialized and Central America was greeted (in a nasty way). Given this year's unusual prevalent synoptic patterns and the fact that several of the global models overdo the strength of approaching troughs...I would not be surprised to see another longer-than-expected westward trekker. 24 hours ago, I don't think any of the mets/models were predicting Noel to exit the SOUTHERN Cuban coastline, which appears to be a possibility now.

[MGC]

Noel will likely turn. Having slowed today is a pretty good indicator that the stearing currents are starting to change. Putting up a watch along the SE coast of Fla would be the prudent thing. I was down in Key West Sunday and didn't even know Noel had formed as I was not watching TV at all.....MGC

[Evil Jeremy]

Yea, but most people would treat a TS Watch or Warning with more attention than a Gale Warning. Unless there is no TS or Hurricane Watch or Warning issued by the NHC in my area, there is no threat, Gale warning or not.

[wxman57]

Track still looks good. I do disagree in the initial west motion on the advisory, but I also note that their 12-hr movement is to the northwest, not west. One point on the wind forecast, note that the NHC is forecasting no TS-force winds on the west side of the storm as it passes Florida. That could be one factor governing their decision not to issue a TS warning.

However, I'm sure they realize that much of the east coast of Florida (offshore and beach areas) will see sustained winds near 40 mph (or a bit higher) tomorrow and Thursday. Those winds are mainly due to the building high pressure across state rather than Noel's western semicircle winds. Obs just west of Noel remain in the 20-25 mph range (just due to the circulation). I guess the question is what will cause the TS-force winds in Florida, Noel or the pressure gradient associated with the high center? Does it matter? I would have thought they would at least issue a TS watch and mentioned the reasoning.

[destruction92]

A gale warning conveys the exact same threat as a TS warning. No need really for a TS warning. A gale warning is sufficient

I can surely understand why a tropical storm warning has not been posted, but please explain why the NHC has just about given up on the idea of a tropical storm watch? Gale warning or no gale warning, there are NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSTED ANYWHERE (YET TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAN ISLANDS, INCLUDING BIMINI ISLAND WHICH IS LESS THAN 100 MILES EAST OF MIAMI), YET NOEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE SE FLORIDA COASTLINE.

[gatorcane]

Track still looks good. I do disagree in the initial west motion on the advisory, but I also note that their 12-hr movement is to the northwest, not west. One point on the wind forecast, note that the NHC is forecasting no TS-force winds on the west side of the storm as it passes Florida. That could be one factor governing their decision not to issue a TS warning.

However, I'm sure they realize that much of the east coast of Florida (offshore and beach areas) will see sustained winds near 40 mph (or a bit higher) tomorrow and Thursday. Those winds are mainly due to the building high pressure across state rather than Noel's western semicircle winds. Obs just west of Noel remain in the 20-25 mph range (just due to the circulation). I guess the question is what will cause the TS-force winds in Florida, Noel or the pressure gradient associated with the high center? Does it matter? I would have thought they would at least issue a TS watch and mentioned the reasoning.

I agree Wxman South Florida along the East Coast is going to see basically a low-end Tropical storm at least -- but maybe not all the rain....

I'm not sure people realize that -- they are just focusing on the line....but a TS Watch would make people realize what is going on.

[ericinmia]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rb.html

Another view of the blow up of convection just west of the LLC

[Brent]

One of my teachers relies on me for all the hurricane and storm info. I talked to her earlier today, showed her some graphs, loops, and other data, and she knew there was no way that Noel would make that kind of turn.

Not saying that it will, but it definitely can in the right setup. Wilma did something very similar around the same time of year as this and remember Charley? It'd be very unusual for a storm not to make a sharp right turn given that it's the end of October and there's very obviously a huge trough to the north of this.

Brent, there have been a lot of surprises this year. When models were predicting earlier systems of this year to feel the influences of troughs, nothing materialized and Central America was greeted (in a nasty way). Given this year's unusual prevalent synoptic patterns and the fact that several of the global models overdo the strength of approaching troughs...I would not be surprised to see another longer-than-expected westward trekker. 24 hours ago, I don't think any of the mets/models were predicting Noel to exit the SOUTHERN Cuban coastline, which appears to be a possibility now.

You have totally flipped since last night. Last night you were making post after post about how there was no way this would hit Florida.

[Canelaw99]

A gale warning conveys the exact same threat as a TS warning. No need really for a TS warning. A gale warning is sufficient

The issue here is that there is no longer a gale warning for this land area. Currently, the gale warning is just for Biscayne Bay and the Atlantic Waters (per channel 4). If I heard that, I wouldn't think anything of it. Most common people don't have a clue what's going on, so a TS watch/warning gets them focused and paying attention.

[gatorcane]

A gale warning conveys the exact same threat as a TS warning. No need really for a TS warning. A gale warning is sufficient

I can surely understand why a tropical storm warning has not been posted, but please explain why the NHC has just about given up on the idea of a tropical storm watch? Gale warning or no gale warning, there are NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSTED ANYWHERE (YET TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAN ISLANDS, INCLUDING BIMINI ISLAND WHICH IS LESS THAN 100 MILES EAST OF MIAMI), YET NOEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE SE FLORIDA COASTLINE.

Are you suggesting the NHC is "saving face" and is being reluctant because they have not done well on the track?

[gatorcane]

Winds along the SE Coast of FL are already gusting to near TS force and Noel has not even hit the Gulf stream yet

Miami beach has a wind gust to 47mph although I'm not sure that is at the surface because Miami Beach typically reads high.

and notice those winds are well inland (Pembroke Pines)

W PALM BEACH PTSUNNY 81 70 69 NE25G32 29.96F
FT LAUDER-EXEC MOSUNNY 81 69 67 NE20G31 29.92F
FT LAUDERDALE PTSUNNY 84 67 56 NE29G38 29.90F
POMPANO BEACH MOSUNNY 82 69 64 NE21G33 29.93S
PEMBROKE PINES PTSUNNY 82 69 64 NE24G38 29.94F
OPA LOCKA PTSUNNY 83 70 64 NE23 29.91S
MIAMI CLOUDY 82 69 64 NE22G28 29.90F
MIAMI BEACH N/A 81 73 76 NE40G47 29.88F
WEST KENDALL CLOUDY 81 70 69 NE21G29 29.89F
HOMESTEAD LGT RAIN 79 73 83 NE21G26 29.89S FOG

[destruction92]

You have totally flipped since last night. Last night you were making post after post about how there was no way this would hit Florida.[/quote]

Because Noel has continued to move west and the forecast models have continued to shift ever so lightly westward (in fact, NOGAPS now predicts a Florida landfall)....and CMC has backed off from a Florida landfall like it earlier suggested, which is a Bad thing if you know what I mean

Do you have any comments on what I have said though Brent?