Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[gatorcane]

Noel is VERY impressive tonight. Wow is all i have to say

[Vortex]

GFS also supported by the 00z Nogaps and canadian this evening with a position over or just off the se florida coast wednesday night

[Brent]

Looks like it's turning north. The straight line on the western edge is a big sign...

Think this goes east of Andros. The west side looks very very weak, but the east very impressive.

[eastcoastFL]

i see what you are talking about with the big line to the west but the cirulation seems to still be heading west to me.

[eastcoastFL]

looks to be heading more west than anything on wator vapor

[Vortex]

Latest cuban radar, surface reports and IR2 all indicate a w/wnw motion. This is supported by the 00Z Global GFS/NOGAPS/CMC

[Vortex]

Latest cuban radar, surface reports and IR2 all indicate a w/wnw motion. This is supported by the 00Z Global GFS/NOGAPS/CMC

[eastcoastFL]

thats what i saw too.

[Vortex]

That "line" has been there all day...Notice on IR2 the western extent of the circulation has been gaining real estate west all evening and becoming better defined.

[gatorcane]

Noel is no doubt still moving WNW to W...albeit slower.

The problem is that if you focus on the IR it looks like Noel is not moving west -- but that is because we lost the visibles which would show its real movement. The wall is a layer of shear that is impacting the mid-level and high-level circulation preventing the convection from moving any farther west.

I think another center is in the process of forming where the deep convection is and that is moving/drifting NW.

Wouldn't be surprised if Noel approaches hurricane status in the next 24-48 hours.

[eastcoastFL]

thank you for the explanation. None of the mets want to admit it, i guess its in their contracts to stay behind what ever the nhc publishes.

[gatorcane]

thank you for the explanation. None of the mets want to admit it, i guess its in their contracts to stay behind what ever the nhc publishes.

the pro mets do give an "unbiased" view and I respect their opinion. In fact I do agree Noel is in "the process" of making that turn as we speak but not convinced he is moving N just yet....

but the NHC doesn't forecast Noel to completely turn until tomorrow so the pro mets are right on track...

[Jevo]

I think that the storm is moving up.... not any direction really... just up... in fact im concerned for the Internation Space station and my Direct TV...

Lighten up people.... time will tell

[ericinmia]

This is from the 2am advisory.....

Noel has been moving erratically toward the northwest near 5 mph...
7 km/hr. A gradual turn toward the north-northwest and north is
expected over the next 24 hours. On this track...Noel is expected
to emerge off of the north coast of Cuba today.

[ericinmia]

HPC surface analysis:

[cpdaman]

i think the center has sorta relocated a bit ne and the north west turn has commenced i.e from 300 wnw to about 325 nw and becomming 350 by morning IMO

look at the radar
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

you can see the rotation or center is elongated NE/SW and part is approaching/over N cuban coast

i believe around 21.8 or 9 and 77.9 or so it appears a bit broad so give or take .3 degrees hear or there

[cpdaman]

i was also just out at the beach in boca for high tide and it came up a bit higher this go around

there was zero beach left at high tide in numerous spots, not sure if the erosion is that bad.just a strong onshore flow. a life guard tower which was moved earlier this year, may be in danger tommorrow of being suckout out, we shall se.

good nite

[bocadude86]

winds now well in excess of 40mph here in boca

[Rainband]

Lets play the Flip Flop game.

For what I can read many members that were flipping in the afternoon are now flopping.

What I find very interesting throughout Noel's lifetime is that nobody has been able to make an accurate forecast. It seems like Noel is reading everything everyone is saying and then he decides to do the opposite.

I know i posted that last night. No matter how good someone thinks they are ....Weather always shows the Reality.

[Derek Ortt]

thank you for the explanation. None of the mets want to admit it, i guess its in their contracts to stay behind what ever the nhc publishes.

No, we just don't make up data to send a storm to our home town

6Z fix supports a contnued turn