Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

690
URNT15 KNHC 311107
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 14 20071031
105530 1955N 07058W 3924 07724 0407 -165 -179 172017 017 149 000 00
105600 1956N 07100W 3928 07717 0405 -161 -193 176015 016 141 000 00
105630 1957N 07103W 3926 07724 0407 -160 -195 183012 013 087 000 00
105700 1958N 07105W 3927 07719 0406 -160 -197 188012 012 021 000 00
105730 1959N 07108W 3926 07725 0410 -163 -201 190012 012 006 003 00
105800 2000N 07110W 3926 07725 0409 -164 -198 190011 012 010 004 00
105830 2001N 07113W 3927 07723 0409 -165 -192 189013 014 011 004 00
105900 2002N 07115W 3926 07723 0407 -169 -180 187017 018 011 003 00
105930 2002N 07117W 3924 07723 0406 -170 -181 191015 016 002 004 00
110000 2003N 07120W 3926 07719 0406 -169 -187 183016 017 001 003 00
110030 2004N 07122W 3926 07716 0403 -166 -194 177017 018 003 004 00
110100 2005N 07125W 3927 07716 0401 -172 -181 185016 017 006 003 00
110130 2006N 07127W 3926 07706 0393 -170 -187 187017 018 004 004 00
110200 2007N 07130W 3926 07709 0393 -170 -179 193017 017 004 004 00
110230 2008N 07132W 3924 07705 0391 -168 -188 187017 018 000 004 00
110300 2009N 07135W 3926 07708 0394 -169 -182 188017 018 000 004 00
110330 2010N 07137W 3924 07713 0397 -165 -191 195017 019 000 004 00
110400 2011N 07140W 3926 07714 0400 -170 -186 190018 019 000 003 00
110430 2012N 07142W 3926 07719 0404 -170 -186 189018 018 000 004 00
110500 2013N 07145W 3926 07727 0411 -167 -189 192015 017 000 004 00
$$
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[jlauderdal]

thank you for the explanation. None of the mets want to admit it, i guess its in their contracts to stay behind what ever the nhc publishes.

I am assuming when you wake up that an apology is in order...since the turn has happened and it is doing what we wouldn't admit to.

OH...and BTW...don't be surprised if the center gets pulled even further east under the convection. Weak exposed centers in weak steering flow like to do that.

Sorry your not getting a direct hit by a cat 1 (know thats what ya wanted).

maybe a power outage will make some of those people happy, say 12-18 hours just for good measure, lol. It could happen there have been transformers going in south florida the last couple of hours.

[Windtalker2]

thank you for the explanation. None of the mets want to admit it, i guess its in their contracts to stay behind what ever the nhc publishes.

I am assuming when you wake up that an apology is in order...since the turn has happened and it is doing what we wouldn't admit to.

OH...and BTW...don't be surprised if the center gets pulled even further east under the convection. Weak exposed centers in weak steering flow like to do that.

Sorry your not getting a direct hit by a cat 1 (know thats what ya wanted).

maybe a power outage will make some of those people happy, say 12-18 hours just for good measure, lol. It could happen there have been transformers going in south florida the last couple of hours.

Latest count is 750 without power in Broward County and 350 in Miami Dade County

[fci]

Makes absolutely no difference where the "center" is.
ALL of the "weather" associated with Noel is well to the North and East.

The pressure gradient is causing the strong NE wind, beach erosion and quick little bursts of non-accumulating rain.

Just a blustery (albeit rather strong "blust") fall day here.

Like AFM so aptly put it, sorry to disappoint those who wanted a Hurricane here. All I wanted was another good shot of rainfall in the rainy season so I guess we were all disappointed.

Oh and the comment made:

eastcoastFL wrote:
thank you for the explanation. None of the mets want to admit it, i guess its in their contracts to stay behind what ever the nhc publishes.

was COMPLETELY INAPPROPRIATE!

and I guess you have not been around S2K long to see how inaccurate that comment was.
AFM, Derek and Wxman will always tell us what THEY think irrespective of the NHC forecast. It just so happens that they and the NHC are Pros so they often agree.

[HURAKAN]

266
URNT15 KNHC 311117
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 15 20071031
110530 2014N 07147W 3926 07727 0409 -165 -190 190015 016 000 003 00
110600 2015N 07150W 3926 07718 0404 -165 -189 192014 015 000 004 00
110630 2016N 07152W 3926 07714 0400 -165 -192 196015 015 000 004 00
110700 2017N 07155W 3927 07720 0408 -165 -193 199014 014 000 003 00
110730 2018N 07157W 3927 07714 0402 -161 -195 192013 014 000 004 00
110800 2019N 07200W 3926 07716 0401 -158 -201 188012 013 000 004 00
110830 2020N 07202W 3926 07712 0395 -158 -203 200013 014 000 004 00
110900 2021N 07204W 3927 07711 0396 -158 -204 210012 013 000 003 00
110930 2022N 07207W 3926 07716 0399 -159 -203 215011 011 000 004 00
111000 2023N 07209W 3927 07711 0399 -166 -191 211010 011 000 004 00
111030 2024N 07212W 3925 07717 0400 -165 -198 207011 011 000 004 00
111100 2025N 07214W 3926 07713 0400 -165 -196 208011 013 000 004 00
111130 2026N 07217W 3924 07718 0402 -163 -199 207013 013 000 004 00
111200 2027N 07219W 3927 07711 0399 -163 -199 206015 016 000 004 00
111230 2028N 07222W 3925 07717 0399 -164 -195 198016 017 000 004 00
111300 2029N 07224W 3927 07715 0401 -165 -194 198015 015 000 004 00
111330 2029N 07227W 3926 07713 0400 -165 -202 209015 016 000 004 00
111400 2030N 07229W 3926 07712 0397 -165 -200 210014 014 000 004 00
111430 2031N 07231W 3924 07716 0398 -166 -212 215013 013 000 004 00
111500 2032N 07234W 3924 07716 0398 -165 -262 201013 014 000 004 00
$$
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[HURAKAN]

Visible coming soon.

[Air Force Met]

ya ya sorry. you got lucky on this one.

No...I didn't get lucky...I got skills...

Get you some...

[Air Force Met]

and I guess you have not been around S2K long to see how inaccurate that comment was.
AFM, Derek and Wxman will always tell us what THEY think irrespective of the NHC forecast. It just so happens that they and the NHC are Pros so they often agree.

You are only telling half the story. You don't KNOW how many PM's I've gotten from the mods telling me to stop bashing the NHC.

[HURAKAN]

650
URNT15 KNHC 311127
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 16 20071031
111530 2033N 07236W 3924 07711 0396 -162 -219 201014 014 000 004 00
111600 2034N 07239W 3924 07713 0397 -161 -220 201013 013 000 003 00
111630 2035N 07241W 3927 07708 0396 -160 -211 195014 014 002 003 00
111700 2036N 07244W 3926 07716 0399 -160 -216 200014 015 000 004 00
111730 2037N 07246W 3927 07709 0397 -160 -214 204012 012 000 004 00
111800 2038N 07249W 3926 07711 0397 -160 -208 218012 012 002 004 00
111830 2039N 07251W 3926 07715 0398 -164 -198 217012 013 001 004 00
111900 2040N 07253W 3926 07715 0399 -164 -195 220013 014 001 004 00
111930 2041N 07256W 3927 07711 0396 -160 -195 214015 016 003 004 00
112000 2042N 07258W 3925 07716 0398 -160 -197 218015 016 008 004 00
112030 2043N 07301W 3926 07712 0397 -165 -187 221014 014 011 003 00
112100 2043N 07303W 3925 07711 0395 -165 -185 207016 017 007 003 00
112130 2044N 07306W 3926 07701 0388 -164 -190 200018 018 004 004 00
112200 2045N 07308W 3925 07705 0389 -165 -190 196017 018 006 004 00
112230 2046N 07311W 3926 07703 0389 -165 -191 190018 018 005 004 00
112300 2047N 07313W 3924 07712 0396 -165 -192 188018 018 020 002 00
112330 2048N 07316W 3924 07711 0395 -165 -191 187017 017 005 004 00
112400 2049N 07318W 3924 07716 0397 -164 -188 184016 016 002 004 00
112430 2050N 07321W 3924 07716 0398 -161 -192 183013 014 004 004 00
112500 2051N 07324W 3924 07716 0399 -160 -193 183010 011 011 003 00
$$
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[tolakram]

Why are you people up so early?


So who said it was making progress west? That's an impressive brick wall it hit last night.

Oh and Hurakan, there's a roast beef sale ...

[PhillyWX]

Some pictures of the flooding in the Dominican Republic from TWC:

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... niola.html

[HURAKAN]

587
URNT15 KNHC 311137
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 17 20071031
112530 2052N 07326W 3926 07717 0400 -160 -193 182009 010 008 004 00
112600 2053N 07329W 3926 07715 0401 -160 -206 170010 010 024 002 00
112630 2054N 07332W 3926 07715 0400 -157 -210 162010 010 028 001 00
112700 2055N 07335W 3926 07717 0402 -158 -209 159011 011 043 000 00
112730 2056N 07337W 3926 07720 0404 -157 -207 164011 012 066 000 03
112800 2057N 07340W 3924 07720 0402 -154 -213 168012 013 999 999 03
112830 2058N 07343W 3926 07716 0401 -157 -212 174010 011 081 000 03
112900 2058N 07346W 3926 07720 0403 -160 -209 200010 011 012 003 00
112930 2059N 07349W 3926 07717 0401 -161 -207 198011 011 005 003 00
113000 2059N 07352W 3926 07715 0399 -165 -206 191012 012 005 003 00
113030 2059N 07354W 3926 07716 0399 -164 -208 200012 012 003 003 00
113100 2100N 07357W 3926 07715 0400 -163 -208 209012 013 005 003 00
113130 2100N 07400W 3926 07715 0400 -156 -229 223011 013 007 003 00
113200 2100N 07403W 3927 07712 0400 -156 -309 224009 010 003 004 00
113230 2101N 07406W 3926 07711 0398 -155 -319 214007 008 007 004 00
113300 2101N 07409W 3926 07711 0398 -155 -261 210009 009 011 003 00
113330 2102N 07412W 3927 07709 0398 -155 -188 212009 009 011 004 00
113400 2102N 07414W 3926 07715 0398 -155 -204 218009 010 015 004 00
113430 2102N 07417W 3927 07706 0394 -155 -207 197006 007 019 004 00
113500 2103N 07420W 3926 07711 0395 -153 -188 221004 004 022 004 00
$$
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[Cuber]

A couple of things I notice:

Winds along the coast of Florida are NOT due to Noel ....(snip) ... Noel is not causing the beach erosion, the cold front is.

Okay ... I'm confused. I thought all our current beach erosion was caused by the high pressure ridge, above the approaching front, in combination with the low pressure associated with Noel .... all this erosin is due to the cold front only ?

[HURAKAN]

185
URNT15 KNHC 311149
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 18 20071031
113530 2103N 07423W 3926 07711 0396 -150 -185 243005 006 021 005 00
113600 2103N 07426W 3926 07710 0396 -151 -175 217005 005 022 004 00
113630 2104N 07429W 3924 07714 0397 -151 -171 211010 015 021 004 00
113700 2104N 07431W 3926 07716 0401 -149 -173 195024 026 021 004 00
113730 2104N 07434W 3926 07712 0398 -149 -169 193030 031 026 010 00
113800 2105N 07437W 3926 07716 0400 -149 -163 187031 034 029 010 00
113830 2105N 07440W 3926 07717 0401 -150 -162 188023 024 029 012 00
113900 2106N 07443W 3926 07715 0402 -152 -162 187018 024 025 010 00
113930 2106N 07446W 4014 07564 0405 -144 -151 192011 014 025 007 03
114000 2106N 07449W 4166 07280 0386 -128 -137 180017 020 019 003 03
114030 2107N 07452W 4320 07004 0370 -115 -121 177019 020 016 004 03
114100 2107N 07454W 4474 06737 0357 -100 -113 212018 020 012 003 03
114130 2107N 07457W 4650 06444 0341 -085 -100 229020 022 999 999 03
114200 2108N 07500W 4852 06111 0317 -063 -092 234021 023 999 999 03
114230 2108N 07503W 5092 05710 0286 -041 -073 202021 026 999 999 03
114300 2108N 07505W 5344 05334 0255 -026 -045 192024 026 999 999 03
114330 2109N 07508W 5604 04960 0074 -008 -014 194026 027 999 999 03
114400 2109N 07510W 5870 04585 0082 +010 +003 189027 027 999 999 03
114430 2109N 07513W 6136 04228 0090 +028 +023 188024 025 999 999 03
114500 2110N 07515W 6397 03887 0095 +046 +039 185026 027 999 999 03
$$
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[wxman57]

A couple of things I notice:

Winds along the coast of Florida are NOT due to Noel ....(snip) ... Noel is not causing the beach erosion, the cold front is.

Okay ... I'm confused. I thought all our current beach erosion was caused by the high pressure ridge, above the approaching front, in combination with the low pressure associated with Noel .... all this erosin is due to the cold front only ?

If you look at a detailed map of observations across the Bahamas northward to the Carolinas, you see winds on the west and northwest side of Noel at about 10-15 mph (to about Andros Island). North and northwest of that is the strong high pressure area that's mainly responsible for the winds along the southeast U.S. Coast. It's cool air spilling out off the east coast then flowing south and southwestward (supergradient flow) that is producing the strong winds along the Florida coast. Noel's lower pressure being down near Cuba does help to increase the pressure gradient to the north, but Noel's circulation is not producing the strong winds along the Florida coast.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
800 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...CENTER OF NOEL ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NOEL.

[Evil Jeremy]

From the SFL WInd Advisory:

ANY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OR INTENSITY OF NOEL COULD PROMPT UPGRADING OR
REPLACING THE ADVISORY WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT SO RESIDENTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR
LATEST STATEMENTS FOR UPDATES AND REMAIN ON THE ALERT.

[boca]

Well since Noel was our last shot at rain the lake O level is around 10ft going into dry season.What is Lake O going to look like come May or June of 2008 with 6 months of absolutly no rain. We won't be able to water at all. The cities around the lake will not have running water if the level goes beyond at cetain level which I think is 8 ft.

[cycloneye]

311157
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
800 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...CENTER OF NOEL ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NOEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 195
MILES...315 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE CENTER OF NOEL
IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND REACH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA....BRINGING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 20
TO 30 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA... ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...22.3 N...78.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/LANDSEA

[HURAKAN]

664
URNT15 KNHC 311157
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 19 20071031
114530 2110N 07518W 6683 03530 0085 +074 +074 182028 029 999 999 05
114600 2110N 07520W 6960 03193 9990 +093 +999 193029 030 999 999 05
114630 2110N 07522W 7242 02864 9990 +111 +999 189027 028 999 999 05
114700 2111N 07525W 7544 02520 0094 +128 +097 188029 029 999 999 03
114730 2111N 07527W 7829 02200 0093 +139 +118 185029 030 005 004 03
114800 2111N 07529W 8004 01997 0079 +147 +133 182031 031 003 005 00
114830 2111N 07529W 8004 01997 0078 +149 +144 183033 034 004 005 00
114900 2112N 07533W 8119 01880 0080 +152 +152 184033 033 000 005 01
114930 2112N 07534W 8117 01868 9990 +154 +999 183033 033 000 004 01
115000 2112N 07536W 8117 01891 9990 +157 +999 183033 034 001 004 01
115030 2112N 07538W 8118 01875 0067 +159 +143 183035 035 001 004 01
115100 2113N 07540W 8119 01861 0061 +158 +135 184034 035 000 005 00
115130 2113N 07541W 8120 01857 0061 +153 +149 185035 036 000 005 00
115200 2113N 07543W 8120 01856 0060 +151 +150 186035 035 000 005 00
115230 2113N 07545W 8118 01863 0058 +155 +151 188034 035 000 005 00
115300 2113N 07547W 8116 01863 0057 +155 +149 192031 032 000 005 00
115330 2114N 07548W 8118 01861 0060 +153 +148 188032 033 000 004 00
115400 2114N 07550W 8118 01856 0054 +159 +140 188033 035 001 004 00
115430 2114N 07552W 8116 01863 0054 +160 +138 190033 034 000 005 00
115500 2114N 07554W 8118 01866 0062 +160 +142 191031 032 001 004 00
$$
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