Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Blown Away]

Noel sure is blowing up on the IR. The cloud field is still pushing WNW. LLC still moving NNW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[ExBailbonds]

Hurakan that neiborhood looks very familar to me are you in cutler bay?

No, I live near the National Hurricane Center.

ah ok By the youth fairgrounds I think the builder of your area was the same as my old neiborhood in cutler ridge.

Ps Sorry for the off topic posts

[HURAKAN]

[boca]

I guess Florida is in the all clear since Noel is moving NNW now.Other than wind probably no rain.Halloween plans not cancelled.

[HURAKAN]

I have been getting almost constant rain showers throughout the morning.

[HURAKAN]

497
UZNT13 KNHC 311251
XXAA 81138 99224 70784 08028 99000 25622 25512 00503 ///// /////
92681 21413 24013 85417 19217 26509 88999 77999
31313 09608 81241
61616 AF307 0716A NOEL OB 08
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2238N07835W 1242 MBL WND 26011 AEV 00000 DLM W
ND 25512 999912 WL150 25511 083 =
XXBB 81138 99224 70784 08028 00000 25622 11850 19217 22843 19017
21212 00000 25512 11976 27011 22912 24013 33843 27009
31313 09608 81241
61616 AF307 0716A NOEL OB 08
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2238N07835W 1242 MBL WND 26011 AEV 00000 DLM W
ND 25512 999912 WL150 25511 083 =
;

[ExBailbonds]

I guess Florida is in the all clear since Noel is moving NNW now.Other than wind probably no rain.Halloween plans not cancelled.

I would think that we will still see some very quik passing showers and the wind will make using a umbrella a waste of time. So if taking kids trick or treating be carefull and be prepared.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Boca... The Hurricane Center does not seem to think that So. Fla is in the clear yet.

From the 8 am advisory...

311157
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
800 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...CENTER OF NOEL ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NOEL.

[HURAKAN]

151
URNT15 KNHC 311257
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 25 20071031
124530 2235N 07822W 8433 01475 9976 +196 +171 281012 012 999 999 03
124600 2236N 07821W 8431 01474 9971 +201 +164 278010 012 999 999 03
124630 2237N 07819W 8428 01475 9966 +205 +162 269010 010 999 999 03
124700 2238N 07817W 8432 01469 9961 +210 +161 257010 012 999 999 03
124730 2239N 07816W 8426 01474 9960 +206 +163 238011 013 999 999 03
124800 2240N 07814W 8427 01469 9958 +206 +167 231013 014 004 003 03
124830 2241N 07812W 8431 01464 9962 +199 +175 221013 014 009 002 00
124900 2241N 07811W 8432 01460 9959 +196 +177 212017 019 007 003 00
124930 2242N 07809W 8435 01457 9956 +199 +175 203021 022 007 004 00
125000 2244N 07807W 8426 01467 9954 +204 +171 190023 025 023 005 00
125030 2245N 07806W 8428 01463 9952 +208 +168 176027 028 033 004 00
125100 2246N 07804W 8428 01467 9960 +198 +173 171034 038 033 004 03
125130 2247N 07804W 8426 01470 9967 +186 +175 162040 042 999 999 03
125200 2248N 07806W 8433 01460 9964 +188 +179 150037 038 032 005 03
125230 2249N 07807W 8432 01458 9961 +186 +181 145028 029 032 004 03
125300 2249N 07809W 8432 01453 9956 +187 +179 132025 026 026 005 00
125330 2250N 07811W 8428 01457 9950 +198 +175 118027 028 023 004 00
125400 2250N 07813W 8434 01451 9948 +199 +175 103026 027 025 003 00
125430 2250N 07815W 8432 01454 9958 +188 +170 086025 026 025 003 00
125500 2250N 07817W 8428 01462 9956 +190 +177 071032 033 023 004 00
$$
;

I have to go, can anyone take over?

[hial2]

All these "all clear" posters are,in my opinion,premature...Though all signs point to just another Fl near miss, I lived in SFl long enough to know that this time of year tropical cyclones have a "mind" of their own..I could name several examples but I would bore you..No one should look away from Noel until it's near Bermuda (Ok,exaggerating the point..but you get the idea)

[boca]

Boca... The Hurricane Center does not seem to think that So. Fla is in the clear yet.

From the 8 am advisory...

311157
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
800 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...CENTER OF NOEL ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NOEL.

Yes I understand what your saying but Noel has already made the northward turn bypassing Florida.Noel would have to turn back WNW to effect us. That's not going to happen, I looked at the water vapor loop of the NW Atlantic and that alone is my insurance.

[Blown Away]

The Ukmet & Nogaps models are the west outliers, but the initiate Noel along the S coast of Cuba. Noel is on/just off the N coast of Cuba. How can the models be that far off from the initial point?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[HURAKAN]

[alienstorm]

Let me just state that the Noel seems to be expanding (rain shield) and while it will remain offshore, the fact that it seems to be organizing and probably gaining strength should keep us on the vigient side until the storm has passed our longitude.

We still have about 18 - 36 hours of potential hazarous weather.

[Blown Away]

All these "all clear" posters are,in my opinion,premature...Though all signs point to just another Fl near miss, I lived in SFl long enough to know that this time of year tropical cyclones have a "mind" of their own..I could name several examples but I would bore you..No one should look away from Noel until it's near Bermuda (Ok,exaggerating the point..but you get the idea)

I think the FL near miss theory is gone!!!
I don't need to list the examples.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Boca when the Hurricane Center says that we are not in the clear...We are not in the clear yet simple as that!

[ExBailbonds]

Ya boca that water vapor loop sure puts it into perspective doesn't it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[Sal Collaziano]

We must be getting some squalls because it's a lot more windy here in West Palm Beach (near Okeechobee Boulevard) than it was yesterday. Noel isn't even as close as it's going to be yet either...

[ronjon]

From NHC 5 AM Discussion:

NOEL HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE 12 HR MOTION IS 330/6...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY EVEN BE MORE TOWARD THE NORTH. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS AN EARLY START OF THE FORECAST NORTHWARD TURN...OR IF IT IS A RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER.

I think its a reformation of the center - probably resume a W-NW or NW motion for at least the next 12 hrs or so. I just checked the steering current maps from CIMSS - that trough is still located in the NW GOM as of now. Upper level steering is still toward the NW where the storm center is reforming.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

The trof looks like it is moving more northward. Is it at all possible for it to just not get to Noel? Looking at that radar, you can also see what appeared to be a north movement, but now the convection is fighting the "brick" and slowly moving westward. What can anyone make out of this?