Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311342
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 15 20071031
133000 2455N 08045W 4102 07420 0417 -155 -355 308008 009 035 000 00
133030 2453N 08043W 4189 07287 0431 -148 -314 328005 006 049 003 00
133100 2451N 08042W 4316 07083 0437 -133 -264 355003 004 054 001 00
133130 2449N 08040W 4493 06782 0431 -108 -250 335005 005 036 000 00
133200 2447N 08038W 4675 06484 0417 -082 -228 002007 008 035 000 00
133230 2446N 08037W 4858 06190 0405 -064 -187 027013 015 035 000 00
133300 2444N 08035W 5041 05919 0406 -050 -081 033011 012 036 000 00
133330 2442N 08034W 5235 05650 0417 -026 -061 039014 015 035 000 00
133400 2440N 08033W 5445 05360 0426 -001 -056 030018 021 036 000 00
133430 2438N 08031W 5666 05061 0251 +014 +003 027023 024 035 000 00
133500 2436N 08030W 5875 04653 9990 +027 +999 037022 023 036 000 01
133530 2435N 08028W 6092 04325 9990 +040 +999 039021 022 037 000 05
133600 2433N 08027W 6339 03989 9990 +054 +999 040023 023 042 000 01
133630 2431N 08026W 6581 03672 0092 +073 +059 045024 024 036 000 01
133700 2429N 08024W 6822 03370 0093 +086 +047 053025 026 036 000 00
133730 2428N 08023W 7060 03067 0088 +095 +059 057028 029 037 000 00
133800 2426N 08022W 7312 02767 0085 +108 +078 058030 031 034 000 03
133830 2424N 08021W 7561 02484 0081 +123 +102 068033 034 036 000 00
133900 2423N 08019W 7797 02229 0090 +132 +119 072032 034 036 000 00
133930 2421N 08018W 8041 01966 0093 +143 +130 071031 032 038 000 00

[Grease Monkey]

I'm just wondering regardless if the center is approaching closer to us or not, the convection seems to be extending further west, so does that mean that it's possible that now the TS winds may now extend further west and some of SE florida will feel it?

[boca]

Models

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_16.gif

[caneman]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Just hit the +1 sign and you will see pasing West of ANdros. I agree it will turn but if I'm viewing this right it take just 60-80 East.

[NcentralFlaguy]

Man o man it really looks to moving west north west, ooohh its gonna be close I have a knife and fork ready just incase I have to eat some of that crow too.It will be an interesting couple of hours this morning thats for sure. you guys may get you warnings yet.

[cpdaman]

Ya boca that water vapor loop sure puts it into perspective doesn't it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

I've been looking at that same WV loop for last 24 hours (minus sleeping) and that brick wall looked more impressive last nite

also why are the clouds over central florida retreating a bit to the north, it appears the CDO and associated convection has built a little further back to the nw.

[Typhoon_Willie]

No problem AFM! In another post with Destruction92, I asked him or her what the definition of a close call was for South Fla. Where I believe in so many words I tried to describe in my amateur fashion that the effects would be the same. I.E. the gale force wind field that I assume is the combination of the high to the north and the storm to the south would affect the So Fla. area. I never did debate as to the why and wherefore that a tropical storm watch or warning should be issued as opposed to the gale warning.

In any case I follow your posts and expertise with a great deal of respect for the knowledge you have gained in the weather field. You posts here have great impact and I for one am glad that you do post here when you have the time.

[Frank2]

I wouldn't worry, Boca - Noel will more likely be remembered for the indirect beach erosion than anything...

As wxman said, the upper air environment does not favor strengthening even if it did head this way (not likely), so, that should be that as far as Florida is concerned...

[Frank2]

Hurricane David (1979) passed within 75 miles east of Miami (after tracking similar to Noel), but, we really didn't receive anything, other than what we are experiencing at this time, so...

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311352
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 16 20071031
134000 2420N 08017W 8306 01686 0090 +155 +146 073031 033 037 000 00
134030 2418N 08016W 8431 01555 0086 +165 +153 073035 035 035 000 00
134100 2417N 08015W 8429 01556 0084 +163 +155 071037 038 036 000 00
134130 2415N 08014W 8431 01554 0082 +167 +151 069036 036 036 000 00
134200 2414N 08013W 8428 01558 0084 +161 +156 069037 038 036 000 00
134230 2413N 08012W 8430 01554 0082 +164 +153 067037 037 034 000 00
134300 2411N 08011W 8429 01554 0081 +165 +151 068036 036 034 000 00
134330 2410N 08010W 8428 01553 0079 +165 +147 072034 034 043 000 00
134400 2409N 08009W 8431 01552 0079 +165 +148 073035 035 034 000 00
134430 2407N 08008W 8428 01553 0078 +165 +150 071035 035 035 000 00
134500 2406N 08007W 8447 01534 0079 +165 +152 070036 037 035 000 00
134530 2405N 08006W 8427 01552 0077 +164 +151 069034 035 036 000 00
134600 2403N 08005W 8431 01547 0077 +165 +153 067034 034 036 000 00
134630 2402N 08004W 8429 01549 0075 +166 +152 068036 036 034 000 00
134700 2401N 08003W 8427 01552 0074 +166 +156 069036 036 036 000 00
134730 2400N 08001W 8581 01397 0076 +174 +155 066037 037 038 000 00
134800 2359N 08000W 8815 01161 0080 +179 +176 069036 037 037 000 00
134830 2358N 07958W 9062 00925 9990 +185 +999 068038 039 037 000 01
134900 2357N 07957W 9323 00676 9990 +201 +999 063038 040 037 000 01
134930 2356N 07956W 9582 00435 9990 +219 +999 061039 041 038 000 01

Descending to operational level.

[Evil Jeremy]

Is it me, or does it seem that the through is bypassing Noel?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[ExBailbonds]

It is over very warm water so strengthing is likley to happen but the worst of this storm is going to miss south florida. Yes we might see some quik passing showers and gusty winds as it goes by.

That said i did secure my patio furture and other loose items yesturday afternoon just in case. And i am very glad i did as i noticed a glass table and umbrella blown over next door. Umbrella is now in his pool Glass broken. ha ha whos the sucker now.

[tgenius]

I was about 1 yr old when david came by Miami, its amazing from what my parents tell me of how close it really came. I am just hoping it doesn't get too much closer so the haloween evening isn't rained out.

[HURAKAN]

Noel looks to be intensifying. By the RECON observations it seems the pressure is beginning to plunge and then the winds should do the opposite.

[Blown Away]

Hurricane David (1979) passed within 75 miles east of Miami (after tracking similar to Noel), but, we really didn't receive anything, other than what we are experiencing at this time, so...

We got hammered by David in Jupiter. We were in the eye for at least an hour or so. I estimate the winds/gusts were in the 85-100mph range

[Derek Ortt]

but the center looks exposed

[Evil Jeremy]

Derek, where do you think the center is now?

[NcentralFlaguy]

but the center looks exposed

where? I was under the impression it had relocated underneath the convection?

[Evil Jeremy]

Derek has not posted his new forecast here yet, so he should be posting them soon.

[Derek Ortt]

just using the 12Z fix coordinates

that places the center west of the convection