Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Blown Away]

It appears that Noel is gaining strength, which means it's more vertically stacked, that should accelerate the NE turn, right?

[cpdaman]

but the center looks exposed

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

center recon fix was as 78.17 and i guess that would mean it is just to the west of the deep convection w/ cirrus covering over the top of it on visual

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311402
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 17 20071031
135000 2356N 07954W 9757 00271 9990 +234 +999 055036 038 038 000 01
135030 2355N 07953W 9728 00298 9990 +233 +999 058036 037 039 000 01
135100 2354N 07952W 9739 00288 9990 +234 +999 058037 039 040 000 01
135130 2353N 07951W 9738 00289 0064 +232 +229 057036 037 039 000 00
135200 2352N 07949W 9732 00292 0063 +233 +220 059036 037 039 000 00
135230 2352N 07948W 9739 00287 0063 +234 +221 059036 038 038 000 00
135300 2351N 07947W 9737 00289 0062 +233 +222 056036 037 038 000 00
135330 2350N 07946W 9732 00291 0061 +233 +223 053035 037 037 000 00
135400 2349N 07944W 9737 00286 0060 +233 +224 053036 037 039 000 00
135430 2348N 07943W 9734 00289 0060 +233 +225 053034 035 039 000 00
135500 2348N 07942W 9737 00285 0060 +234 +221 056035 038 037 000 00
135530 2347N 07940W 9734 00286 0058 +234 +217 055036 039 042 000 00
135600 2346N 07939W 9702 00315 0059 +232 +218 055037 039 044 000 00
135630 2345N 07938W 9720 00298 0058 +232 +220 054037 040 041 000 00
135700 2344N 07937W 9719 00299 0057 +231 +220 055041 042 042 000 00
135730 2343N 07935W 9710 00307 0057 +231 +218 051041 043 043 000 00
135800 2343N 07934W 9709 00307 0056 +231 +219 050040 041 042 000 00
135830 2342N 07933W 9716 00300 0055 +230 +218 051039 040 043 000 00
135900 2341N 07932W 9708 00307 0054 +230 +219 050037 038 040 000 00
135930 2340N 07930W 9713 00300 0053 +230 +222 049036 038 041 000 00

Max flight level wind: 43 kt
Max SFMR wind: 43 kt

[NcentralFlaguy]

just using the 12Z fix coordinates

that places the center west of the convection

Oh I see, thank you......

[tgenius]

So will NHC raise South FL to TS Watches/Warnings at 11 as a just in case?

[Derek Ortt]

there is absolutely no need for any tropical cyclone watches or warnings for Florida. None at all

the current advisories are sufficient

[Evil Jeremy]

They might.

Anyways, Derek's latest forecast is saying that Noel will be extratropical in 72 hours and has begun the turn.

[CaneCharmer]

I don't know, guys.... I'm no expert, but it sure looks like Noel is getting better organized and bursting with convection. Also, when you look at the trough, IMO, it appears to be weakening somewhat and moving northward. Here in Miami, we're still not expecting any bad weather conditions, but are we wrong to be complacent? It's a close one!

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311412
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 18 20071031
140000 2339N 07929W 9711 00302 0052 +232 +221 052039 040 041 000 00
140030 2339N 07928W 9713 00299 0051 +231 +221 053038 039 042 000 00
140100 2338N 07926W 9711 00300 0050 +230 +222 050039 041 042 000 00
140130 2337N 07925W 9717 00296 0049 +231 +222 052038 039 040 000 00
140200 2336N 07924W 9714 00296 0048 +231 +222 055039 040 042 000 00
140230 2335N 07923W 9711 00297 0048 +230 +223 052040 041 043 000 00
140300 2335N 07921W 9709 00301 0047 +230 +223 054041 043 043 000 00
140330 2334N 07920W 9706 00300 0047 +231 +223 053040 042 045 000 00
140400 2333N 07919W 9711 00296 0046 +230 +225 053039 041 045 000 00
140430 2332N 07918W 9719 00289 0045 +230 +225 054041 043 045 000 00
140500 2331N 07916W 9710 00297 0045 +229 +225 052042 044 045 000 00
140530 2330N 07915W 9714 00291 0044 +228 +228 051041 043 044 000 00
140600 2330N 07914W 9709 00296 0043 +225 +225 050040 040 043 000 00
140630 2329N 07912W 9716 00289 0043 +221 +221 053039 041 043 000 00
140700 2328N 07911W 9716 00287 0042 +223 +223 058037 040 043 000 00
140730 2327N 07910W 9717 00287 0041 +229 +227 057039 041 046 000 00
140800 2326N 07909W 9712 00291 0039 +228 +227 054038 039 043 000 00
140830 2326N 07907W 9707 00294 0039 +228 +227 054037 040 043 000 00
140900 2325N 07906W 9712 00288 0039 +228 +226 056039 041 044 000 00
140930 2324N 07905W 9712 00288 0037 +227 +226 058039 041 046 000 00

Max flight level wind: 44 kt
Max SFMR wind: 46 kt

[Chacor]

You'd think they'd at least prepare for the possibility of a Floridian impact. Their short-term track forecast error with Noel's probably higher than average, so surely they'd consider it.

[Blown Away]

there is absolutely no need for any tropical cyclone watches or warnings for Florida. None at all

the current advisories are sufficient

Is that because there is now way Noel can make it to SFL with the trough moving in or that Noel won't strengthen beyond the 40mph and high wind warning's cover those winds?

[Derek Ortt]

we already have warnings for low end TS winds issued. Had they not have been issued, then we could have seen TS advisories

[Derek Ortt]

CHC now isuing advisories

WOCN31 CWHX 311200
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT
WEDNESDAY 31 OCTOBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

... REMNANTS OF NOEL TO REACH ATLANTIC CANADA THIS WEEKEND...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.4 N AND LONGITUDE 78.5 W... ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES OR 75 KM
NORTH NORTHEAST OF CIEGO AVILA CUBA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS... 65 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1000
MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH AT 5 KNOTS... 9 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
OCT 31 9.00 AM 22.4N 78.5W 1000 35 65
OCT 31 9.00 PM 23.4N 78.7W 1000 40 74
NOV 01 9.00 AM 24.8N 78.2W 998 40 74
NOV 01 9.00 PM 26.7N 76.9W 995 45 83
NOV 02 9.00 AM 29.6N 74.1W 992 45 83 TRANSITIONING
NOV 02 9.00 PM 33.1N 70.8W 989 50 93 TRANSITIONING
NOV 03 9.00 AM 37.1N 67.2W 985 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 9.00 PM 41.4N 63.6W 980 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 9.00 AM 46.7N 59.3W 975 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 9.00 PM 51.0N 55.6W 975 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 9.00 AM 57.3N 51.9W 975 60 111 POST-TROPICAL

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS IT TRANSFORMS INTO A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE STORM SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS THE
POST-TROPICAL STORM CENTRE ENTERING CANADIAN WATERS SATURDAY THEN
PASSING BY NOVA SCOTIA AND THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON SPECIFIC IMPACTS AND NO WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK PUSHES GALES INTO SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME
WATERS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY BUT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
FOLLOWING NHC ANALYSIS AS PER THEIR 09Z BULLETIN.

B. PROGNOSTIC
FOLLOWING NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.

AS NOTED BY NHC THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS WHICH HAVE BEEN
PAINTED BY THE MODELS BASED ON INTERACTIONS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN US STATES. THESE SCENARIOS RANGE FROM
ORPHANING NOEL DOWN SOUTH ... TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLASSIC ET
MOVING UP OVER ATLANTIC CANADA ... TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEPARATE
BAROCLINIC LOW FORMING AHEAD OF NOEL AND BOTH SYSTEMS MOVING
NORTHEAST IN TANDEM.

FSU CPS DIAGNOSTICS ALL SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. FOR EXAMPLE
THE GFDL INDICATES TRANSITION BEGINNING NEAR DAWN FRIDAY BUT NEVER
REALLY COMPLETES TRANSITION. MEANWHILE THE HWRF CAN BE INTERPRETTED
AS A WARM SECLUSION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA. THE CMC
MODEL ALSO DEVELOPS AN INTENSE 950MB WARM SECLUSION FARTHER NORTH...
MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE SPEED OF ADVANCE OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.

ACCORDINGLY WE KEEP THINGS GENERAL AT THIS POINT AND WILL BE WATCHING
CLOSELY THE DEVELOPMENTS OF NOEL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS ITS
FATE WILL VERY LIKELY BE REVEALED IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NO DETAILS CAN BE PUT TO RAIN OR WIND YET SINCE WE HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE ON THE FUTURE DETAILS OF THE MASS FIELD. HOWEVER WE RAISE
A CAUTION REGARDING MOISTURE WHICH MAY BLEED OUT AHEAD OF NOEL AND
MOVE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MARITIMES THURSDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NS COULD GET A SHOT OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR NFLD FRIDAY... ALL WELL PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF ANY
MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

D. MARINE WEATHER
IT IS EXPECTED THAT REGARDLESS OF THE SCENARIOS THAT COULD DEVELOP
ANY SYSTEM REACHING CANADIAN WATERS WILL BE IN SUFFICIENT STAGE
OF TRANSITION OR BAROCLINIC REINTENSIFICATION THAT GALES WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM CENTRE. ACCORDINGLY WE WILL NOT
ISSUE WIND RADII AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF ITS EXPECTED BAROCLINIC
NATURE.

END BOWYER

http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurrica ... oel.txt.en

[Thunder44]

Here's the radar from the Bahamas for those interested. I tried the loop to but for some reason I can't get images after 20:00 UTC yesterday:

http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/radar/local/

[chadtm80]

If you all remember last night as we discussed the storm flatened out on the west side South to North to preclude the turn North.. Now take note that it has flatened out in the NE direction again precluding a turn that way..

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311422
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 19 20071031
141000 2323N 07904W 9719 00280 0037 +227 +226 059040 042 046 000 00
141030 2322N 07902W 9715 00284 0035 +226 +226 061040 041 045 000 00
141100 2322N 07901W 9714 00282 0034 +227 +226 058040 041 046 000 00
141130 2321N 07900W 9714 00283 0033 +227 +227 057040 041 044 000 00
141200 2320N 07859W 9708 00286 0032 +226 +226 058043 044 045 000 00
141230 2319N 07858W 9715 00279 0032 +225 +225 060045 047 046 000 00
141300 2318N 07856W 9708 00286 0031 +225 +225 059044 045 046 000 00
141330 2318N 07855W 9721 00272 0029 +225 +225 059047 049 047 000 00
141400 2317N 07854W 9708 00281 0027 +226 +225 057048 050 047 000 00
141430 2316N 07853W 9709 00280 0026 +224 +224 056046 049 046 000 00
141500 2315N 07852W 9712 00276 0024 +225 +225 057049 049 047 001 00
141530 2315N 07850W 9714 00275 0023 +225 +225 058047 048 047 000 00
141600 2314N 07849W 9717 00269 0021 +225 +225 060049 050 047 000 00
141630 2313N 07848W 9711 00272 0019 +225 +225 058047 047 048 000 00
141700 2312N 07847W 9712 00272 0018 +226 +226 057046 047 048 000 00
141730 2311N 07846W 9713 00269 0017 +226 +226 059047 048 046 000 00
141800 2311N 07844W 9717 00264 0015 +225 +225 061048 049 046 000 00
141830 2310N 07843W 9714 00266 0014 +225 +225 059047 049 046 000 00
141900 2309N 07842W 9713 00265 0012 +225 +225 061048 050 047 000 00
141930 2308N 07841W 9712 00264 0011 +226 +226 064050 052 046 000 00

Max flight level wind: 52 kt
Max SFMR wind: 48 kt
(NW quadrant)

[tgenius]

Chad I don't think theres been a better example of whats happening, it literally looks like a straight invisible wall between FL and Noel.

[Vortex]

Every system takes on it's own "character" and I think noel has indicated to us land or not it's a fighter and given warm water and semi-conducive environmental factors I wouldnt be surprised to see a strong TS or min Cat1 before the day is over...Nassau is in store for a good Blow..

[ExBailbonds]

I think the nhc is confident that this storm will pass to the east and the west side of the storm is the weakest threfore no need to post the watches for south florida. The center would have to hit to get the high winds. The heading of noel just wont put us in the core wind field.

[Blown Away]

High clouds almost to SFL.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html