Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311433
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 20 20071031
142000 2308N 07840W 9714 00261 0008 +228 +228 066051 053 048 000 00
142030 2307N 07838W 9713 00260 0009 +220 +220 066051 051 047 000 00
142100 2306N 07837W 9718 00255 0008 +216 +216 066050 052 044 001 03
142130 2305N 07837W 9719 00255 0007 +223 +223 071047 048 044 000 00
142200 2304N 07836W 9709 00262 0008 +214 +214 071047 048 045 000 00
142230 2302N 07835W 9705 00264 0004 +223 +223 077042 045 044 000 00
142300 2301N 07835W 9715 00253 0002 +219 +219 083040 041 042 000 03
142330 2300N 07834W 9715 00251 9998 +220 +220 085041 042 042 000 00
142400 2258N 07834W 9710 00251 9993 +231 +231 085039 040 041 000 00
142430 2257N 07834W 9716 00242 9990 +232 +232 090040 041 042 000 00
142500 2255N 07833W 9712 00242 9985 +229 +229 097040 041 043 000 00
142530 2254N 07833W 9715 00236 9981 +229 +229 104037 040 044 000 00
142600 2252N 07833W 9719 00231 9977 +237 +237 104029 030 041 000 03
142630 2251N 07833W 9708 00237 9974 +239 +239 102026 026 036 000 00
142700 2249N 07834W 9716 00225 9969 +240 +236 112026 026 037 000 00
142730 2248N 07834W 9714 00225 9967 +240 +237 112025 026 037 000 00
142800 2247N 07834W 9712 00225 9965 +239 +239 114023 024 036 000 00
142830 2245N 07835W 9710 00226 9964 +239 +239 122019 021 034 000 00
142900 2244N 07835W 9709 00224 9962 +240 +240 129013 015 031 000 03
142930 2242N 07836W 9713 00220 9961 +240 +240 139006 009 030 000 00

Near the center now.
Max flight level wind: 53 kt
Max SFMR wind: 48 kt

[eastcoastFL]

Winds are very gusty in jupiter

[ronjon]

Chad I don't think theres been a better example of whats happening, it literally looks like a straight invisible wall between FL and Noel.

I don't think that cloud line has anything to do with the direction. It's the mid-to-upper level steering. Currently, winds are blowing from SW to NE in the upper levels only over the northern GOM and north-central FL. Upper level winds ar either variable or are light blowing from SE to NW over the storm center. You'll notice that heavy convection doesn't appear to be heavily sheared although it is disconnected from the LLC still (has been since it interacted with Cuba).

[Frank2]

Yes, unlikely that the NHC will post any watches for Florida - the system seems to be tracking due north (and eventually northeast), so, any affect here (other than the gradient wind) should be minimal...

Sorry, folks...

[Tropics Guy]

Looks like Noel spit out a low level vortex traveling NNW at about 23.3N 78.8W or is this the LLC?, apparent on the floater visible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

TG

[ExBailbonds]

Yes, unlikely that the NHC will post any watches for Florida - the system seems to be tracking due north (and eventually northeast), so, any affect here (other than the gradient wind) should be minimal...

Sorry, folks...

I feel the same but we abought to find out so i hope we dont have to eat crow. but i am rather confident we wont have a feathered diner.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311442
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 21 20071031
143000 2241N 07837W 9714 00221 9962 +240 +240 196002 003 028 001 03
143030 2240N 07836W 9709 00229 9965 +239 +239 216006 010 999 999 03
143100 2239N 07835W 9721 00219 9967 +239 +239 193013 015 029 000 00
143130 2240N 07833W 9711 00230 9969 +240 +237 186015 015 030 000 00
143200 2240N 07831W 9716 00228 9971 +238 +238 178018 021 032 000 00
143230 2240N 07830W 9709 00235 9974 +235 +235 181025 027 035 000 00
143300 2240N 07828W 9714 00235 9978 +234 +234 181027 028 037 000 00
143330 2240N 07826W 9709 00243 9988 +222 +222 175029 030 039 001 00
143400 2240N 07825W 9709 00245 9986 +231 +231 174030 031 038 000 00
143430 2241N 07823W 9714 00244 9989 +229 +229 169033 034 039 000 00
143500 2241N 07821W 9708 00250 9991 +230 +230 170034 035 040 000 00
143530 2241N 07820W 9712 00251 9995 +228 +228 170033 034 040 000 00
143600 2241N 07818W 9712 00253 9998 +229 +229 169033 033 039 000 00
143630 2242N 07817W 9712 00255 0000 +227 +227 166033 034 038 001 00
143700 2242N 07815W 9717 00252 0002 +225 +225 162034 036 040 000 00
143730 2242N 07813W 9711 00260 0004 +225 +225 162034 035 040 000 00
143800 2242N 07812W 9710 00263 0007 +225 +225 164032 033 039 000 00
143830 2243N 07810W 9716 00259 0009 +225 +225 162033 034 039 000 00
143900 2243N 07809W 9712 00264 0011 +225 +225 161033 033 039 000 03
143930 2243N 07807W 9713 00265 0012 +226 +226 162033 035 038 002 00

Extrapolated SLP: 996 hPa
About 25 miles west of the fix from the 0716A mission a few hours ago.

[ExBailbonds]

Looks like Noel spit out a low level vortex traveling NNW at about 23.3N 78.8W or is this the LLC?, apparent on the floater visible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

TG

that is the LLC

[Thunder44]

Looks like Noel spit out a low level vortex traveling NNW at about 23.3N 78.8W or is this the LLC?, apparent on the floater visible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

TG

Some the new recon reports indicates the LLC is near there. If that's it turned more towards the NW.

The plane just fixed a center due about 27 miles due west of the last fix.

[HenkL]

URNT12 KNHC 311448
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 31/14:29:40Z
B. 22 deg 42 min N
078 deg 36 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 48 kt
E. 340 deg 33 nm
F. 068 deg 053 kt
G. 352 deg 026 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 23 C/ 357 m
J. 24 C/ 353 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 0816A NOEL OB 02
MAX FL WIND 53 KT N QUAD 14:20:00 Z
SLP EO/

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311452
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 22 20071031
144000 2243N 07805W 9708 00270 0018 +218 +218 160033 035 038 001 00
144030 2243N 07804W 9715 00266 0016 +228 +228 161032 032 040 000 00
144100 2243N 07802W 9713 00269 0018 +220 +220 157030 031 038 002 00
144130 2243N 07801W 9710 00272 0018 +228 +228 158031 033 038 001 00
144200 2243N 07759W 9718 00268 0019 +229 +229 162032 032 037 000 00
144230 2243N 07758W 9709 00276 0020 +230 +230 162031 032 037 000 00
144300 2243N 07756W 9714 00273 0022 +230 +230 164030 031 036 000 00
144330 2243N 07755W 9712 00275 0023 +230 +230 164029 030 035 000 00
144400 2243N 07753W 9713 00276 0023 +233 +227 166031 032 037 000 00
144430 2243N 07751W 9712 00277 0024 +232 +229 165031 032 036 000 00
144500 2243N 07750W 9712 00279 0025 +233 +232 164030 030 036 000 00
144530 2243N 07748W 9713 00278 0027 +233 +232 163030 031 034 001 00
144600 2243N 07747W 9711 00280 0027 +232 +232 165030 031 034 000 00
144630 2243N 07745W 9712 00281 0028 +225 +225 161031 032 035 005 00
144700 2243N 07743W 9710 00282 0030 +215 +215 160033 034 039 005 00
144730 2243N 07742W 9709 00283 0030 +221 +221 160033 034 040 006 00
144800 2243N 07740W 9715 00279 0030 +225 +225 157034 035 040 007 00
144830 2242N 07739W 9713 00281 0030 +227 +227 158035 035 039 004 00
144900 2242N 07737W 9713 00281 0030 +229 +229 158034 036 038 003 00
144930 2242N 07736W 9710 00284 0031 +229 +229 159034 035 038 001 00

[artist]

it is very squally here. Did you see Singer Island with Jim Cantore on it? Not far from here - the beach is literally gone. They will once again have to replenish it which they just got through doing not long ago.

Thunder - I noticed recon was finding the highest winds in the nw also. What could that mean for us here with the more nw movement I think you are saying they are finding?

[Tropics Guy]

Yea, looks like it could be moving more NW than NNW, but we'll see what the 11:00am advisory says.

TG

[Evil Jeremy]

which should be in by now.

[Derek Ortt]

it also means that there is no signs of intensification this morning, which is a surprise to me.

The winds to the west of the center are not even related to the TC, but due to the pressure gradient

[Blown Away]

I need to be set straight; looking at the visible and clicking the "Tropical Forecast Points", I see what I think is the LLC moving WNW near the forecast point. Not trying to start a panic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Chacor]

TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...NOEL STRENGTHENS AFTER MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SANCTI SPIRITUS AND GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... GRANMA...HOLGUIN...AND
SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
NOEL. AS NOEL MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY...ITS WIND FIELD WILL APPROACH
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AND THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING
MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. IN EITHER
CASE...WINDS NEAR GALE/TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Evil Jeremy]

TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...NOEL STRENGTHENS AFTER MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SANCTI SPIRITUS AND GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... GRANMA...HOLGUIN...AND
SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
NOEL. AS NOEL MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY...ITS WIND FIELD WILL APPROACH
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AND THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING
MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. IN EITHER
CASE...WINDS NEAR GALE/TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 175
MILES...280 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND NOW ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS...ESPECIALLY
IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...22.7 N...78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[gatorcane]

Not trying to panic anybody also but that "wall" seems to be breaking down. The loops show this massive blob moving NW towards FL.

God this is going to be a close call...it has not turned to the north yet...and it is intensifying rapidly now..

[gatorcane]

Looks like TS Warnings and hurricane warnings? may be needed for SE Florida......