Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Canelaw99]

12Z NAM stops by Key west before heading N/NE over/off the SE FL coast...

Should we start doing spreads for over/under referencing 80w

What does Vegas say the odds are? LOL

[tolakram]

Noel, the Pagan storm?

Convection is decreasing, looks like some outflow boundaries flying around, not sure about that though.

[Derek Ortt]

http://wrf-model.org/plots/showforecast ... ane4km.php

lets add some more confusion to the situation

a looping possibility for 2 more days

[Blown Away]

some are so desperate for a storm that they are excited about an exposed center moving away from the deep convection
That said, this storm is driving me as insane as this Pagan ritual that many observe today

The question is why is that exposed center moving more WNW than NNW. You have to work on your God complex.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311532
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 26 20071031
152000 2317N 07650W 9259 00725 0071 +173 +173 125036 038 050 027 00
152030 2319N 07651W 9229 00752 0072 +175 +175 127043 044 050 020 00
152100 2320N 07652W 9236 00748 0071 +178 +178 125043 047 051 011 00
152130 2322N 07653W 9248 00737 0074 +170 +170 125040 042 047 022 00
152200 2324N 07653W 9238 00749 0074 +172 +172 124037 039 045 024 00
152230 2325N 07654W 9242 00745 0073 +179 +179 127038 040 041 011 00
152300 2327N 07655W 9242 00743 0067 +194 +194 129039 041 043 008 00
152330 2329N 07655W 9245 00741 0066 +194 +194 131042 046 042 008 00
152400 2331N 07656W 9249 00736 0066 +195 +195 127044 045 048 006 00
152430 2333N 07657W 9239 00745 0065 +194 +194 122044 046 042 010 00
152500 2334N 07658W 9242 00745 0068 +194 +194 121041 043 043 009 00
152530 2336N 07658W 9253 00735 0068 +200 +200 112038 040 041 008 00
152600 2338N 07659W 9313 00680 0070 +197 +197 111035 036 040 007 03
152630 2339N 07700W 9247 00741 0070 +196 +196 114036 037 042 003 03
152700 2341N 07700W 9243 00745 0069 +201 +201 116037 037 045 001 00
152730 2343N 07701W 9250 00740 0070 +198 +198 112037 037 040 004 00
152800 2344N 07702W 9250 00742 0073 +191 +191 112038 039 039 004 00
152830 2346N 07702W 9248 00744 0075 +189 +189 112035 036 041 005 00
152900 2348N 07703W 9249 00743 0072 +198 +198 120037 037 041 005 00
152930 2349N 07704W 9242 00751 0075 +196 +196 118037 038 041 004 00

[Derek Ortt]

I think because it is exposed and is moving with the low level flow. The center also looks less organized than yesterday

[HURAKAN]

[Vortex]

I give NHC props for mentioning 4 scenarios in there 5am update....Fine game of chess we have going on here..Only way its gets very close to SFL is via an exposed center...BUT when it does make the turn N should consolidate convection over the center...? is where does the final turn commence

[Grease Monkey]

I think because it is exposed and is moving with the low level flow. The center also looks less organized than yesterday

So is Noel being posessed by the ghost of Chris 2006?

[Vortex]

some are so desperate for a storm that they are excited about an exposed center moving away from the deep convection
That said, this storm is driving me as insane as this Pagan ritual that many observe today

The question is why is that exposed center moving more WNW than NNW. You have to work on your God complex.

Folks,

This is our passion lets have fun with it today...

[hurricanefloyd5]

I think because it is exposed and is moving with the low level flow. The center also looks less organized than yesterday

Well you have to also relized the the center reformed as well so it should be closer to florida now and even more with what lokos to be a wnw movement

[HURAKAN]

For South Florida Noel has been more exciting than Ernesto. At least we have already had stronger winds and more rainfall.

[Grease Monkey]

For South Florida Noel has been more exciting than Ernesto. At least we have already had stronger winds and more rainfall.

Funny and Ernesto was hyped up even more and it came with watches and warnings.

[Vortex]

looks like it's making a run for the keys...

[Canelaw99]

Doesn't Noel realize he's a little late for Fantasy Fest?

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311542
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 27 20071031
153000 2351N 07705W 9253 00740 0075 +196 +196 117036 037 040 004 00
153030 2353N 07705W 9243 00749 0074 +200 +200 120038 039 041 000 00
153100 2354N 07706W 9250 00744 0076 +197 +197 113037 039 039 002 00
153130 2356N 07707W 9251 00744 0074 +204 +194 112036 037 040 001 00
153200 2358N 07707W 9247 00748 0076 +201 +193 112037 038 037 002 00
153230 2359N 07708W 9252 00743 0077 +198 +198 110036 037 035 000 00
153300 2401N 07709W 9246 00750 0077 +197 +197 111034 035 035 002 00
153330 2403N 07709W 9257 00740 0081 +186 +186 111034 036 038 005 00
153400 2404N 07710W 9246 00750 0082 +186 +186 112037 037 037 005 00
153430 2406N 07711W 9247 00749 0079 +195 +195 113037 038 034 003 00
153500 2408N 07711W 9246 00752 0080 +198 +198 113037 037 035 000 00
153530 2409N 07712W 9249 00751 0081 +199 +199 109036 037 034 000 03
153600 2410N 07714W 9290 00713 0080 +201 +201 103035 036 999 999 03
153630 2408N 07715W 9547 00462 0073 +213 +209 089034 036 041 001 00
153700 2407N 07717W 9718 00313 0073 +223 +216 083037 038 040 002 00
153730 2406N 07718W 9735 00296 0071 +226 +215 082037 038 043 000 00
153800 2404N 07719W 9733 00297 0070 +223 +218 079038 039 042 003 00
153830 2403N 07721W 9734 00294 0069 +218 +218 078038 038 042 004 00
153900 2402N 07722W 9735 00292 0067 +220 +220 077038 039 042 003 00
153930 2401N 07724W 9735 00292 0067 +220 +220 077039 039 043 002 00

[ronjon]

LLC is moving W-NW and current position is near 23N-79W. Overall convection has increased today with pressure dropping to 993 mb. At the upper levels, I see a small upper level high currently centered over the heavy convection. If the LLC gets under the convection (a big if), I think we could have some rapid intensification over the next 12-24 hrs.

[DESTRUCTION5]

looks like it's making a run for the keys...

12Z looks realistic..Between bahamas and Fl Straits..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Frank2]

Well, look at it this way, Derek, perhaps the timing of this bad weather was Heaven-sent to help quell the craziness that goes on this day (and evening)...

Hurricane Wilma produced the same results two years ago (very few Halloween activities down here that year)...

In fact, the Perfect Storm of 1991 also had the same affect on most of East Coast...

[Vortex]

My position for 8am thursday

25.7/79.2