Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[HenkL]

URNT12 KNHC 311654
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 31/16:14:50Z
B. 22 deg 35 min N
078 deg 49 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 46 kt
E. 043 deg 065 nm
F. 094 deg 043 kt
G. 044 deg 098 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 23 C/ m
J. 25 C/ m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 0816A NOEL OB 05
MAX FL WIND 49 KT N QUAD 1634 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.


Center some 15 miles WSW of the previous VDM.

[Canelaw99]

Just checked the recon thread and the latest VDM is about 15 mi WSW of the last one....oy!

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311702
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 35 20071031
165000 2422N 07849W 9737 00285 0060 +227 +219 075038 041 041 002 00
165030 2423N 07849W 9733 00289 0060 +227 +219 077035 037 038 002 00
165100 2425N 07849W 9736 00288 0061 +228 +220 077034 035 038 002 03
165130 2427N 07850W 9731 00291 0061 +227 +220 074037 039 999 999 03
165200 2427N 07850W 9731 00291 0061 +227 +220 071037 038 037 003 03
165230 2425N 07853W 9726 00297 0061 +227 +219 070036 036 039 004 03
165300 2424N 07855W 9736 00287 0061 +228 +219 069037 039 040 003 00
165330 2423N 07857W 9734 00286 0060 +227 +221 068034 035 039 004 00
165400 2422N 07859W 9730 00292 0059 +228 +220 067035 037 038 003 00
165430 2421N 07901W 9738 00285 0061 +229 +219 066038 041 040 004 00
165500 2420N 07903W 9734 00290 0061 +229 +220 063036 039 038 003 00
165530 2419N 07905W 9732 00289 0060 +228 +218 064038 040 041 002 00
165600 2418N 07907W 9735 00287 0059 +229 +215 065042 043 041 002 00
165630 2417N 07909W 9733 00286 0059 +229 +216 061039 040 041 002 00
165700 2416N 07912W 9735 00284 0059 +230 +218 062039 041 044 001 00
165730 2415N 07914W 9737 00283 0058 +230 +218 061040 043 043 002 00
165800 2414N 07916W 9730 00291 0058 +230 +219 060041 043 045 000 00
165830 2412N 07918W 9737 00283 0058 +229 +222 060038 039 043 000 00
165900 2411N 07920W 9734 00285 0058 +229 +222 058037 038 043 001 00
165930 2410N 07922W 9739 00280 0057 +230 +221 058038 039 044 002 00

[Thunder44]

Some thoughts. The LLC would probably still be able to go further west in longitude, until it moves or reforms under the MLC. That will make it a even more disorganized system as it approached South FL, with heaviest rains and strongest winds remaining east of the center. But what if the storm decides to stack up when near the coast FL, as it begins to out to sea? Could that bring the worst over the FL east coast? I don't think it's likely but something to watchout for.

[Blown Away]

Noel has a strong LLC, not real sure about it decoupling. It's only about 40-50 miles W of the "Tropical Forecast Point". Normally we would not be to concerned, but Noel is on our door step.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Blown Away]

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1242 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

This would not have been issued if they were not a little concerned.

[ronjon]

Well, I must say these weak storms really cause our METs fits. They just don't seem to follow the rules (remember Ernesto). Models are no good. It's real time observations that we all follow now. I wonder with the LLC now continuing on its W or W-NW track how much longer the NHC will hold off Tropical Storm Warnings. The weather itself will be no different from the current Gale Warnings, but they may just want to because of the storm track. With the decoupled nature, this won't be anymore than a weak-to-moderate tropical storm unless convection can move back over the LLC.

[Frank2]

379 miles from Miami to Gainesville? That must be from Homestead - I was considering from my area (315 miles from here)...

I had time for just a general figure (I'm at work), but, Noel is still a distance from here...

The system doesn't look like much at this time, anyway...

Frank

[gatorcane]

you can CLEARLY see Noel is wobbling west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Frank2]

The NWS issues a SWS when it meets a certain criteria - this also includes how the weather will affect various outdoor activities (boating regattas, football, parades, etc.), so, considering the day, they are at least partially doing this to make sure those who send their children outside this evening are aware that the weather might not be very good, not necessarily because they are that concerned about Noel as a tropical system...

[gatorcane]

I think TS Warnings need to be issued now for South Florida...

with this west movement we are seeing. You can can see the center hugging the Cuban coastline.

Noel get away from those Cigars!!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Who has them much nicer Ramdis images?

[chadtm80]

Who has them much nicer Ramdis images?

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311712
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 36 20071031
170000 2409N 07924W 9740 00278 0057 +230 +222 058038 039 043 000 00
170030 2408N 07926W 9736 00284 0056 +229 +223 055037 038 042 002 00
170100 2407N 07928W 9737 00282 0056 +230 +222 055038 039 042 004 00
170130 2406N 07930W 9736 00283 0055 +230 +221 057039 041 045 000 00
170200 2405N 07932W 9729 00288 0055 +231 +221 056041 042 045 002 00
170230 2404N 07934W 9732 00285 0055 +232 +222 056039 041 044 000 00
170300 2403N 07936W 9734 00284 0055 +231 +224 056037 039 045 001 00
170330 2402N 07938W 9729 00288 0054 +230 +222 052038 039 045 001 00
170400 2401N 07940W 9736 00282 0054 +231 +221 051038 038 044 001 00
170430 2400N 07942W 9734 00285 0054 +231 +221 052038 039 044 000 00
170500 2359N 07944W 9734 00282 0053 +230 +220 055041 043 045 001 00
170530 2358N 07946W 9725 00291 0054 +229 +223 051040 043 044 003 00
170600 2357N 07948W 9740 00277 0053 +232 +219 051041 043 043 002 00
170630 2356N 07950W 9733 00283 0054 +234 +219 052041 041 045 000 00
170700 2355N 07952W 9737 00280 0054 +234 +218 050043 043 044 001 00
170730 2353N 07954W 9733 00284 0054 +234 +218 050041 043 043 001 00
170800 2352N 07956W 9736 00281 0053 +234 +220 049039 040 043 000 00
170830 2351N 07958W 9733 00284 0053 +233 +221 046041 042 041 002 00
170900 2350N 08000W 9736 00281 0053 +230 +220 048044 046 044 001 00
170930 2349N 08002W 9738 00277 0052 +232 +220 045042 043 043 001 00

[Frank2]

More spot fires in this thread than in California - time for me head out...

Not to worry, all - as my Dad once told me, "Frank, it's just bad weather!"

Frank

[DESTRUCTION5]

Who has them much nicer Ramdis images?

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

Gracias...Man its getting close to that 80 marker..

[Thunder44]

you can CLEARLY see Noel is wobbling west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

How about wobbling SW? The new recon vortex fix at 16:14 UTC came in about 15 miles SW of the older fix at 14:29 UTC.

[rainydaze]

Noel is no match for my teenagers who will brave wind, water and rain to get the candy they're due! haha You would think as kids they get older they get less interested in halloween, but it actually gets more fun for them as they can walk around alone with their friends and traverse many a'streets in the neighborhood

[ronjon]

Nice squall bands now coming in between WPB and Upper Keys.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=amx&loop=yes

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311722
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 37 20071031
171000 2348N 08004W 9741 00276 0053 +234 +220 046040 041 041 001 00
171030 2347N 08006W 9734 00281 0052 +234 +222 044041 041 041 001 00
171100 2346N 08009W 9731 00284 0052 +234 +220 045041 041 041 001 00
171130 2345N 08011W 9735 00280 0053 +234 +219 043040 042 039 002 00
171200 2344N 08013W 9735 00281 0053 +235 +218 044041 041 041 000 00
171230 2343N 08015W 9737 00280 0053 +234 +219 044041 041 038 002 00
171300 2342N 08017W 9735 00282 0054 +230 +221 047042 043 043 001 00
171330 2340N 08019W 9733 00284 0055 +233 +222 043039 040 041 001 00
171400 2339N 08021W 9732 00284 0054 +235 +221 043038 039 039 004 00
171430 2338N 08023W 9732 00285 0054 +234 +222 041036 038 041 003 00
171500 2337N 08025W 9733 00284 0054 +234 +222 038038 039 042 004 00
171530 2336N 08027W 9734 00283 0054 +234 +221 041037 040 042 001 00
171600 2335N 08029W 9738 00279 0054 +235 +221 039037 040 041 003 00
171630 2334N 08031W 9739 00279 0054 +235 +220 040038 038 043 000 00
171700 2333N 08033W 9731 00285 0055 +234 +221 041035 036 999 999 03
171730 2331N 08033W 9736 00281 0054 +234 +222 037033 035 037 002 03
171800 2330N 08031W 9736 00280 0053 +234 +224 034030 031 039 001 00
171830 2329N 08029W 9735 00280 0052 +235 +224 034029 030 037 003 00
171900 2328N 08028W 9733 00282 0051 +235 +223 035031 032 038 002 00
171930 2327N 08026W 9736 00277 0050 +235 +222 038032 033 040 001 00