Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[artist]

thanks for continuing to post.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311732
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 38 20071031
172000 2326N 08024W 9735 00278 0049 +235 +223 034031 032 040 001 00
172030 2325N 08022W 9734 00277 0048 +235 +223 036032 034 040 003 00
172100 2324N 08021W 9735 00275 0046 +235 +224 038033 035 040 002 00
172130 2323N 08019W 9732 00278 0045 +236 +224 038031 032 038 003 00
172200 2322N 08018W 9736 00275 0045 +237 +223 039033 034 039 004 00
172230 2321N 08016W 9731 00277 0044 +237 +223 038034 036 040 002 00
172300 2320N 08014W 9734 00272 0042 +236 +224 035034 035 039 003 00
172330 2319N 08013W 9736 00270 0041 +235 +226 036033 035 039 003 00
172400 2318N 08011W 9734 00272 0040 +238 +224 035034 036 041 000 00
172430 2317N 08009W 9731 00272 0039 +238 +225 036033 035 040 002 00
172500 2316N 08008W 9735 00267 0038 +236 +224 037036 038 042 001 00
172530 2315N 08006W 9738 00265 0037 +234 +226 036036 039 044 001 00
172600 2314N 08004W 9734 00267 0037 +231 +231 037033 034 044 001 00
172630 2313N 08003W 9733 00268 0035 +232 +228 035032 033 041 001 00
172700 2312N 08001W 9737 00262 0034 +231 +228 036034 034 040 003 00
172730 2311N 07959W 9734 00263 0033 +232 +229 035033 034 041 001 00
172800 2310N 07958W 9736 00263 0032 +234 +229 035033 034 041 000 00
172830 2309N 07956W 9734 00263 0031 +234 +226 037036 037 041 001 00
172900 2308N 07954W 9735 00262 0030 +234 +228 035034 034 041 003 00
172930 2307N 07953W 9740 00257 0029 +230 +229 035035 037 041 002 00

[drezee]

Even with the initialization of NNW the GFDL picked up on the W to WSW movement of NOEL. If this panned out...TS warning would need to be issued.

TROPICAL STORM NOEL 16L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 31
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 22.4 78.5 345./ 7.0
6 22.4 79.3 272./ 6.8
12 22.2 79.6 236./ 3.6
18 23.1 79.6 1./ 8.8
24 23.9 79.0 35./ 9.4
30 24.6 78.5 34./ 7.8

[SouthFLTropics]

It does appear that the LLC is heading off more to the west but even with that I don't expect much from Noel. You can see the convection getting "sandwiched" off to the NE. I think the LLC is going to have to either get together with the convection or all the convection is going to leave it behind and it will be time for wxman to get Bones out for his declaration!

SFT

[LeeJet]

What a turn of events. All the models and pro-mets have been wrong on the immediate curve. Unprecedented.

[gatorcane]

What a turn of events. All the models and pro-mets have been wrong on the immediate curve. Unprecedented.

why watches/warnings are not up for South Florida is beyond me.

[hurricanefloyd5]

They might be either by 2 or by 5pm tonight

this is not a forecast

[Evil Jeremy]

The NHC does not issue watches or warnings at the intermideate advisories, at least very rarely, so we might need to wait till 5 for the official word.

[umguy1]

They really should make an exception

[Evil Jeremy]

we will know soon with the 2PM advisory.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311742
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 39 20071031
173000 2306N 07951W 9734 00260 0028 +228 +228 032036 037 042 001 00
173030 2305N 07949W 9736 00255 0025 +229 +228 032038 040 041 003 00
173100 2304N 07948W 9733 00258 0024 +231 +230 031034 036 041 003 00
173130 2303N 07946W 9735 00255 0023 +233 +226 031035 037 042 000 00
173200 2302N 07944W 9736 00253 0021 +233 +227 030035 036 043 001 00
173230 2301N 07943W 9735 00252 0020 +233 +230 030034 035 042 000 00
173300 2300N 07941W 9735 00251 0018 +231 +230 033035 037 042 003 00
173330 2259N 07939W 9734 00251 0016 +231 +229 035037 038 040 004 00
173400 2258N 07938W 9744 00240 0015 +231 +231 033036 037 042 001 00
173430 2257N 07936W 9729 00250 0012 +230 +230 033036 037 043 002 00
173500 2257N 07935W 9736 00241 0011 +231 +231 032036 037 040 003 00
173530 2256N 07933W 9735 00243 0009 +231 +231 032035 036 041 002 00
173600 2255N 07931W 9734 00241 0007 +232 +232 032035 036 040 001 00
173630 2254N 07930W 9736 00239 0006 +233 +233 031034 034 040 001 00
173700 2253N 07928W 9733 00241 0004 +234 +234 031031 032 038 003 00
173730 2252N 07927W 9736 00235 0002 +235 +233 032031 031 038 002 00
173800 2251N 07925W 9733 00237 0001 +234 +234 029030 031 039 001 00
173830 2250N 07924W 9729 00240 0000 +233 +233 030031 031 041 000 00
173900 2249N 07922W 9735 00234 9999 +234 +234 029030 030 038 003 00
173930 2248N 07920W 9736 00231 9997 +234 +234 027030 030 038 002 00

Nearing the center (LLC) from the NW.

[hurricanefloyd5]

They really should make an exception

that's right. This should of been already done but it wasn't!!!!!!!!!

[gatorcane]

can any pro met tell me why it is wobblin W now.....

this storm continues to baffle the NHC......

[Tropics Guy]

Any time you put up watches/warnings, even TS watches/warnings, big $$$ is involved, businesses shut down, close early, EOC activations, school closings are involved. That's why the NHC is real careful about issuance. With a decoupled weak storm like this with an initial projected path east of us, the high wind/gale warnings were sufficient., now with the LLC coming more west and with the possibility of more weather & possible TS sustained winds over some areas on the coast, they are carefully considering them for safety reasons.

[tgenius]

I don't want them to issue them as the Halloween festivities will be influenced I'm headin out with my wife tonight!

[LeeJet]

What a turn of events. All the models and pro-mets have been wrong on the immediate curve. Unprecedented.

why watches/warnings are not up for South Florida is beyond me.

Because the same people who have been saying that it is already heading north, are the same people who run the NHC.

The reason why it is turning west is because of increased solar magnetism, which is causing the solar wind to slow down N. Hemisphere troughs.

[fci]

What a turn of events. All the models and pro-mets have been wrong on the immediate curve. Unprecedented.

why watches/warnings are not up for South Florida is beyond me.

Chris:
What exactly are watches going to do right now?
There is a Wind Advisory which covers the winds we are getting from the gradient and might get from the circulation.
I know that we love to see "official watches/warnings" but when it is a weak TS we are not talking loss of life or major property damage.
And remember what has been said countless times in this thread; being closer to the center will not bring you increased winds and will proabably decrease the winds a bit.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Anyone here think that a possible Hurricane Watch will be issued due to it having guts to near 75mph or higher and winds growing to near Hurricane Force?????

[gatorcane]

What a turn of events. All the models and pro-mets have been wrong on the immediate curve. Unprecedented.

why watches/warnings are not up for South Florida is beyond me.

Chris:
What exactly are watches going to do right now?
There is a Wind Advisory which covers the winds we are getting from the gradient and might get from the circulation.
I know that we love to see "official watches/warnings" but when it is a weak TS we are not talking loss of life or major property damage.
And remember what has been said countless times in this thread; being closer to the center will not bring you increased winds and will proabably decrease the winds a bit.

the TS Watches/Warnings are interpreted by people differently than Gale warnings. Plus I think there is a good chance the Noel could strengthen over the warm waters of the FL straits...a VERY good chance.

[gatorcane]

Looks like an "eye-like" feature is forming just off the coast of Cuba and it is drifting West: