Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

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HenkL
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#2721 Postby HenkL » Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:54 pm

URNT15 KNHC 311752
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 40 20071031
174000 2247N 07919W 9733 00233 9995 +234 +234 028030 031 038 003 00
174030 2246N 07917W 9736 00227 9992 +234 +234 030030 032 038 002 00
174100 2245N 07915W 9720 00238 9990 +228 +228 032029 030 037 003 03
174130 2244N 07914W 9349 00577 9986 +218 +218 036028 028 035 004 03
174200 2243N 07912W 9014 00904 9993 +200 +200 032026 027 037 001 00
174230 2242N 07911W 8680 01229 9986 +200 +190 027026 027 036 002 00
174300 2241N 07909W 8466 01445 9984 +196 +175 026028 028 035 002 00
174330 2240N 07908W 8431 01482 9980 +197 +174 028026 026 033 002 00
174400 2239N 07906W 8430 01478 9976 +195 +175 027024 025 052 000 00
174430 2238N 07904W 8428 01473 9968 +196 +177 026024 025 132 000 00
174500 2238N 07903W 8430 01471 9967 +199 +178 025025 025 112 000 00
174530 2237N 07901W 8427 01474 9966 +200 +178 026023 024 059 000 03
174600 2236N 07900W 8431 01464 9960 +202 +183 026021 022 139 000 00
174630 2235N 07858W 8428 01468 9959 +205 +178 027019 020 059 000 00
174700 2235N 07856W 8430 01466 9958 +204 +179 026019 019 028 001 00
174730 2234N 07855W 8430 01462 9953 +208 +170 026016 018 028 001 00
174800 2234N 07853W 8430 01460 9950 +206 +169 047010 011 028 001 00
174830 2233N 07852W 8428 01460 9956 +189 +188 082009 009 024 003 00
174900 2233N 07852W 8428 01460 9958 +184 +184 122009 010 124 008 00
174930 2232N 07848W 8420 01471 9964 +180 +180 146011 012 146 006 03

Extrapolated SLP: 995 hPa
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Re:

#2722 Postby WmE » Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:54 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks like an "eye-like" feature is forming just off the coast of Cuba and it is drifting West:


Looks like the exposed LLC to me.
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Re:

#2723 Postby Rainband » Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:55 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks like an "eye-like" feature is forming just off the coast of Cuba and it is drifting West:


Please tell me your Kidding.
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Re: Re:

#2724 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:56 pm

Rainband wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Looks like an "eye-like" feature is forming just off the coast of Cuba and it is drifting West:


Please tell me your Kidding.


hence the quotes.... :P
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#2725 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:57 pm

Noel trying to dress up as something bigger for Halloween maybe?
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Re: Re:

#2726 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:57 pm

WmE wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Looks like an "eye-like" feature is forming just off the coast of Cuba and it is drifting West:


Looks like the exposed LLC to me.


Yeah, latest recon reports seem to have LLC continuing to move WSW or SW.
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Re: Re:

#2727 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:58 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
WmE wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Looks like an "eye-like" feature is forming just off the coast of Cuba and it is drifting West:


Looks like the exposed LLC to me.


Yeah, latest recon reports seem to have LLC continuing to move WSW or SW.


track shift left likely IMHO for the 5pm advisory
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#2728 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:58 pm

If this slams back into Cuba, it is going to miss the trof and disapate.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 311758
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
200 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...NOEL MEANDERING NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... GRANMA...HOLGUIN...AND
SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
AS NOEL'S WIND FIELD APPROACHES SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...THE EXISTING
WIND ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING MAY BE REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING. IN EITHER CASE...WINDS NEAR GALE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 190
MILES...305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU. THIS POSITION IS JUST
OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR CAYO SANTA MARIA.

NOEL DRIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS CURRENTLY
NEARLY STATIONARY. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS...ESPECIALLY
IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...22.6 N...78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#2729 Postby tgenius » Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:59 pm

Isn't any western component at this point bad towards South FL? Even with an exposed LLC the convection will get closer to the coast right?
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Re:

#2730 Postby Aquawind » Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:00 pm

Weatherboy1 wrote:Definitely not vertically stacked any more. LLC moving roughly W for past few hours, MLC getting hung up by westerly shear. Will this thing get completely "buzz-sawed" apart? Or will Noel's LLC turn N very soon and start reconnecting with its convection? What a mess!


I vote buzz sawed if the motion is more westerly.. could be naked tomorrow..unless it does as forecast and go with the mid/upper flow. It is a large LL circulation alright. Naked of not there will still be good convection on the eastern side. No Eye..a naked swirl almost already..lol


Notice this forecast has the center wayyy south and has reflected that for days. FWIW..and that's not much because it's wrong.. but something is suggesting it not lifting out..

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/
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#2731 Postby HenkL » Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:02 pm

URNT15 KNHC 311802
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 41 20071031
175000 2234N 07847W 8434 01458 9968 +177 +177 147013 016 112 005 03
175030 2235N 07846W 8433 01459 9971 +177 +177 149017 019 064 003 00
175100 2236N 07844W 8430 01467 9970 +183 +183 147019 019 039 000 00
175130 2236N 07844W 8430 01467 9972 +183 +183 148019 019 038 000 00
175200 2238N 07842W 8427 01478 9985 +170 +170 155022 024 040 003 00
175230 2239N 07840W 8428 01478 9990 +169 +169 161027 029 040 006 00
175300 2241N 07839W 8432 01476 9991 +170 +170 161026 027 037 005 03
175330 2242N 07838W 8417 01492 9997 +164 +164 162026 027 036 004 00
175400 2243N 07836W 8432 01480 9993 +176 +176 164024 025 035 004 00
175430 2244N 07834W 8430 01485 9996 +176 +176 160022 023 034 003 00
175500 2245N 07833W 8431 01486 0002 +169 +169 154022 023 036 002 00
175530 2246N 07831W 8429 01489 0003 +169 +169 151020 021 034 004 00
175600 2248N 07830W 8428 01490 0001 +174 +173 154021 022 035 003 00
175630 2249N 07828W 8427 01492 0002 +175 +174 158023 023 034 001 00
175700 2250N 07826W 8431 01490 0004 +175 +173 160022 023 033 001 00
175730 2251N 07825W 8428 01494 0005 +174 +172 159020 020 032 002 00
175800 2253N 07823W 8430 01493 0007 +175 +171 160020 021 030 003 00
175830 2254N 07821W 8428 01496 0007 +174 +173 160019 020 031 002 00
175900 2255N 07820W 8428 01497 0009 +174 +173 161018 019 031 002 00
175930 2256N 07818W 8430 01495 0011 +170 +170 157016 017 030 003 00
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Re: Re:

#2732 Postby Aquawind » Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:03 pm

Looks like the exposed LLC to me.


Yeah, latest recon reports seem to have LLC continuing to move WSW or SW.[/quote]

track shift left likely IMHO for the 5pm advisory[/quote][/quote]


Maybe more rain for SE Florida but really not much will be left if it keeps fighting the shear.. Exposed alright.
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#2733 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:03 pm

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
AS NOEL'S WIND FIELD APPROACHES SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...THE EXISTING
WIND ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING MAY BE REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING. IN EITHER CASE...WINDS NEAR GALE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

So now Noel's wind field may approach South Florida? This whole time the NHC said the pressure gradient would cause the winds...

Time to issue Watches/Warnings....

hmmmm
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL Recon discussion

#2734 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:07 pm

Just a quick question to be sure I have this right....in the recon info such as:
URNT15 KNHC 311752
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 40 20071031
174000 2247N 07919W 9733 00233 9995 +234 +234 028030 031 038 003 00
174030 2246N 07917W 9736 00227 9992 +234 +234 030030 032 038 002 00
174100 2245N 07915W 9720 00238 9990 +228 +228 032029 030 037 003 03
174130 2244N 07914W 9349 00577 9986 +218 +218 036028 028 035 004 03
174200 2243N 07912W 9014 00904 9993 +200 +200 032026 027 037 001 00
174230 2242N 07911W 8680 01229 9986 +200 +190 027026 027 036 002 00
174300 2241N 07909W 8466 01445 9984 +196 +175 026028 028 035 002 00
174330 2240N 07908W 8431 01482 9980 +197 +174 028026 026 033 002 00
174400 2239N 07906W 8430 01478 9976 +195 +175 027024 025 052 000 00
174430 2238N 07904W 8428 01473 9968 +196 +177 026024 025 132 000 00
174500 2238N 07903W 8430 01471 9967 +199 +178 025025 025 112 000 00
174530 2237N 07901W 8427 01474 9966 +200 +178 026023 024 059 000 03
174600 2236N 07900W 8431 01464 9960 +202 +183 026021 022 139 000 00
174630 2235N 07858W 8428 01468 9959 +205 +178 027019 020 059 000 00
174700 2235N 07856W 8430 01466 9958 +204 +179 026019 019 028 001 00
174730 2234N 07855W 8430 01462 9953 +208 +170 026016 018 028 001 00
174800 2234N 07853W 8430 01460 9950 +206 +169 047010 011 028 001 00
174830 2233N 07852W 8428 01460 9956 +189 +188 082009 009 024 003 00
174900 2233N 07852W 8428 01460 9958 +184 +184 122009 010 124 008 00
174930 2232N 07848W 8420 01471 9964 +180 +180 146011 012 146 006 03

Extrapolated SLP: 995 hPa

the winds are found in the 3rd & 4th columns from the right, correct? If so....what's up with those 100+ numbers? If that's not wind, then what is in that column? (I know there's a way to decode them somewhere, but I'm not sure where it is at the moment :oops: )
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#2735 Postby Rainband » Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:07 pm

The first front over florida is washing out. If you look on the Satellite and check ncep "fronts" No matter because the system heading Southeast will help to pick up Noel and get him moving NE. The convection is being sheared NE of the system and even if "The Center" continues to move W or sw ...This will further weaken him. Bottom line he may just sit there and "spin" until the next front picks him up. Thats how I see it. FWIW This system has fooled everyone but Our Pro mets and the NHC do a hell of a job. Like I said weather is unpredictable and we can only trust the tools we have. Sometimes they are wrong. No harm no foul. Our Pro mets spend a lot of time on here and they do it for free. They have careers and I hope all of you appreciate all they do. I know I do.
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Re:

#2736 Postby fci » Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:09 pm

gatorcane wrote:INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
AS NOEL'S WIND FIELD APPROACHES SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...THE EXISTING
WIND ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING MAY BE REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING. IN EITHER CASE...WINDS NEAR GALE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

So now Noel's wind field may approach South Florida? This whole time the NHC said the pressure gradient would cause the winds...

Time to issue Watches/Warnings....

hmmmm


The wind field IN NO MORE INTENSE than what we have been experiencing for 2 days now!!
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#2737 Postby HenkL » Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:09 pm

They were flying over some small islands. The SFMR winds aren't reliable above land.
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#2738 Postby caneman » Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:10 pm

And I would add that for those slapping yourselves on the back and slapping meteorologists on the back. Many of you forecast this to turn West some 300-500 miles East of Florida and now claiming a possible turn of 50-80 miles East of Florida as a success. NOT! BTW-these are the same people claiming South Florida shouldn't be under a TS warning. And it is still amazing to me how these same people are ridiculing those who say it will get close to Florida and in fact it has. I've been amazed at the lack of respect towards people who said it would get close to Florida. So, for people who called for this to turn the last few days may I suggest you humble up and have a plate of crow. You know who you are. :lol:
Last edited by caneman on Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#2739 Postby tgenius » Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:11 pm

fci.. I don't think its exactly the same.. the problem is your going to have a much more concentrated wind/gust from Noel approaching then the Gale winds (at least down here in Kendall) :D
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL Recon discussion

#2740 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:11 pm

K, ty...I knew there had to be something wrong there, or we were in BIG trouble LOL
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