Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[HenkL]

Info re decoding is here.

[Canelaw99]

Thanks! I knew it was here somewhere

[jasons2k]

Let's focus on what Noel might do and not on "who said what". If you have an issue with somebedy's forecast, we have the PM feature for that.

[gatorcane]

I think once Noel starts to move NNW and gets away from the coast -- it could strenghten....substantially..

That's just my opinion....

[Evil Jeremy]

It looks like the LCC is starting to retreat back into the convection.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311812
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 42 20071031
180000 2256N 07818W 8430 01495 0012 +170 +170 157016 017 029 003 00
180030 2259N 07815W 8431 01496 0015 +166 +166 158015 016 029 004 03
180100 2300N 07813W 8444 01482 0011 +170 +170 155014 016 028 003 00
180130 2301N 07812W 8426 01497 0008 +172 +172 161017 017 031 004 00
180200 2301N 07812W 8426 01497 0016 +162 +162 160018 020 042 010 00
180230 2303N 07809W 8434 01491 0025 +151 +151 158016 016 035 008 00
180300 2304N 07808W 8429 01496 0024 +150 +150 166018 019 034 009 00
180330 2305N 07806W 8426 01500 0025 +151 +151 169018 020 036 007 00
180400 2307N 07805W 8429 01498 0023 +154 +154 161018 020 034 006 00
180430 2307N 07805W 8429 01498 0021 +158 +158 165019 022 034 006 00
180500 2309N 07802W 8429 01498 0016 +164 +164 170025 026 036 003 00
180530 2310N 07800W 8427 01500 0021 +159 +159 175025 026 036 004 00
180600 2311N 07759W 8428 01501 0019 +164 +164 173026 027 036 004 00
180630 2312N 07757W 8432 01498 0018 +166 +166 170024 024 032 006 00
180700 2313N 07756W 8427 01503 0023 +161 +161 163023 024 031 005 00
180730 2315N 07754W 8429 01499 0021 +162 +162 165019 021 031 004 00
180800 2316N 07753W 8432 01499 0031 +150 +150 168018 021 032 008 00
180830 2317N 07751W 8432 01498 0037 +142 +142 162014 016 036 012 00
180900 2318N 07750W 8427 01506 0037 +141 +141 149010 012 041 015 00
180930 2319N 07748W 8432 01498 0038 +139 +139 158020 024 042 015 00

[NcentralFlaguy]

Definitely not vertically stacked any more. LLC moving roughly W for past few hours, MLC getting hung up by westerly shear. Will this thing get completely "buzz-sawed" apart? Or will Noel's LLC turn N very soon and start reconnecting with its convection? What a mess!

I vote buzz sawed if the motion is more westerly.. could be naked tomorrow..unless it does as forecast and go with the mid/upper flow. It is a large LL circulation alright. Naked of not there will still be good convection on the eastern side. No Eye..a naked swirl almost already..lol


Notice this forecast has the center wayyy south and has reflected that for days. FWIW..and that's not much because it's wrong.. but something is suggesting it not lifting out..

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/

WOW.. very interesting.. look what it does to the front tomorrow it stalls it and slowly kinda retrogrades it back to the nw.....oh and it looks to make yet another landfall on the north coast of cuba per visible sat loop...kinda moving sw

[Aquawind]

Let's focus on what Noel might do and not on "who said what". If you have an issue with somebedy's forecast, we have the PM feature for that.

No DOUBT!! rediculious.. It has stalled and is not THAT far off course people... nothing unprecidented about it...

Reminder***
This is WEATHER.. chances are your local forecast will be off tomorrow as well..like most every day..forecasts are rarely perfect.

[gatorcane]

Let's focus on what Noel might do and not on "who said what". If you have an issue with somebedy's forecast, we have the PM feature for that.

No DOUBT!! rediculious.. It has stalled and is not THAT far off course people... nothing unprecidented about it...

Reminder***
This is WEATHER.. chances are your local forecast will be off tomorrow as well..like most every day..forecasts are rarely perfect.

they say stalled but looks like the mean movement this morning is West....

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311822
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 43 20071031
181000 2320N 07747W 8428 01506 0028 +157 +157 151013 020 042 014 00
181030 2321N 07745W 8427 01507 0021 +170 +170 151015 016 032 005 00
181100 2321N 07745W 8427 01507 0021 +169 +169 149016 019 032 006 00
181130 2321N 07745W 8427 01507 0023 +167 +167 152020 026 039 007 00
181200 2325N 07741W 8423 01513 0035 +150 +150 154027 028 042 008 00
181230 2326N 07739W 8426 01509 0036 +148 +148 142027 029 044 007 00
181300 2327N 07738W 8429 01506 0043 +139 +139 125033 034 042 005 00
181330 2328N 07736W 8427 01511 0034 +153 +153 136029 030 041 004 00
181400 2329N 07735W 8436 01501 0033 +158 +158 135030 032 041 005 00
181430 2329N 07735W 8436 01501 0035 +156 +156 139032 033 041 005 00
181500 2331N 07732W 8430 01511 0054 +132 +132 125033 036 045 012 00
181530 2332N 07731W 8432 01509 0049 +137 +137 118032 033 050 015 00
181600 2333N 07730W 8432 01506 0053 +131 +131 128040 042 053 019 00
181630 2334N 07728W 8433 01508 0054 +133 +133 126042 047 051 017 00
181700 2335N 07727W 8429 01513 0053 +135 +135 123037 041 050 017 00
181730 2336N 07726W 8430 01513 0050 +141 +141 127037 039 046 013 00
181800 2336N 07726W 8430 01513 0051 +140 +140 131037 038 044 011 00
181830 2339N 07723W 8431 01513 0054 +137 +137 133036 037 044 008 00
181900 2340N 07722W 8433 01512 0050 +146 +146 132034 035 044 008 00
181930 2341N 07721W 8426 01521 0047 +152 +152 129036 037 041 008 00

[Rainband]

And I would add that for those slapping yourselves on the back and slapping meteorologists on the back. Many of you forecast this to turn West some 300-500 miles East of Florida and now claiming a possible turn of 50-80 miles East of Florida as a success. NOT! BTW-these are the same people claiming South Florida shouldn't be under a TS warning. And it is still amazing to me how these same people are ridiculing those who say it will get close to Florida and in fact it has. I've been amazed at the lack of respect towards people who said it would get close to Florida. So, for people who called for this to turn the last few days may I suggest you humble up and have a plate of crow. You know who you are.

actually I think you meant north and the system is stationary now with all the weather on the eastern side so...I don't think a TS warning is needed. Keep in mind how much that requires. People have to open the EOC and shelters have to be opened and it also costs money. I don't think a warning is required and if it was it would be in place. We are weather enthusiasts and they are Pros. I am sure the NHC and the NWS etc know their jobs by now. I am shocked at the behavior I have seen on here today. If there was a real threat I would be exhausted by now deleting all the nonsense posts. I only Hope some of your read your posts and realize how ridiculous they look. Like I said in my previous post. The Mets on here take time to try and help understand the weather and the how and whys. Try listening to them for a while. This post is directed at everyone. Not just one.

[fci]

Hey, I may be wrong but if we get the LLC up here it may only be a naked swirl with relatively light winds.
I would be shocked if winds ramped up much from where they have been.
Still think that the convection will be well offshore and all we are seeing now is a stall before it ejects out NE.
Just my opinion.

[Vortex]

could bring some intense squalls late tonight/tursday morning across the SE coast of FL. More organized convection may be in line

[Aquawind]

Let's focus on what Noel might do and not on "who said what". If you have an issue with somebedy's forecast, we have the PM feature for that.

No DOUBT!! rediculious.. It has stalled and is not THAT far off course people... nothing unprecidented about it...

Reminder***
This is WEATHER.. chances are your local forecast will be off tomorrow as well..like most every day..forecasts are rarely perfect.

they say stalled but looks like the mean movement this morning is West....

Actually they mentioned the Westward movement and the fact it stalled.. They haven't missed a thing other than maybe it's a tad further west than forecast..no biggie. Enough now..Geesh that EYE comment was off the hook!

[chadtm80]

[gatorcane]

that is why I used "quotes" -- obviously it is not a real eye

I do think that it should shoot of to the NNE soon....but the question is when...

[feederband]

Cuba bound again....

[Evil Jeremy]

I still think they are going to put up TS Warnings at 5. It is the only way to really get people aware of what is going on. Also, if all or most of the mets have been wrong so far, what is to say that they still wont be wrong with the storm?

[Blown Away]

Noel is W of the "Tropical Forecast Point" again. I don't see stationary, I see slow W movement. May even landfall in Cuba again. Don't under estimate 50-60 sustained winds w/ 60-70 mph gusts. If you live in a high rise condo or trailer you would want to be warned.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311832
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 44 20071031
182000 2341N 07721W 8426 01521 0045 +155 +155 129036 037 041 008 00
182030 2341N 07721W 8426 01521 0045 +156 +156 129034 035 040 008 00
182100 2344N 07717W 8430 01519 0044 +158 +158 129034 035 037 005 00
182130 2345N 07716W 8424 01524 0037 +169 +168 130036 037 037 003 00
182200 2346N 07714W 8434 01517 0036 +174 +161 134039 041 038 003 00
182230 2347N 07713W 8428 01523 0041 +168 +168 124038 040 037 003 00
182300 2348N 07712W 8426 01526 0045 +164 +164 116034 036 037 003 03
182330 2348N 07712W 8426 01526 0048 +161 +161 115033 035 999 999 03
182400 2351N 07714W 8424 01527 0044 +163 +163 121038 039 039 004 03
182430 2351N 07716W 8184 01776 0044 +154 +149 124036 038 999 999 03
182500 2351N 07718W 7848 02135 0047 +132 +132 127033 034 999 999 03
182530 2352N 07720W 7505 02507 0034 +118 +118 134028 029 999 999 03
182600 2353N 07723W 7172 02886 0035 +096 +096 129023 024 999 999 03
182630 2353N 07725W 6868 03254 0028 +087 +087 128022 023 041 004 03
182700 2354N 07727W 6819 03323 0035 +084 +071 121018 019 042 003 00
182730 2355N 07729W 6833 03300 0039 +080 +078 118020 021 049 003 00
182800 2355N 07732W 6834 03337 0040 +082 +072 118022 022 086 000 03
182830 2356N 07734W 6832 03275 0014 +082 +070 112024 025 999 999 03
182900 2357N 07737W 6828 03287 0016 +084 +068 106027 028 999 999 03
182930 2357N 07739W 6836 03265 0018 +086 +069 101029 031 999 999 03