Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Bgator]

Wxman, why do you say there is no tropical storm force winds when actually the wnds have increased, and the NHC keeps it at a TS.?

[caneman]

And I would add that for those slapping yourselves on the back and slapping meteorologists on the back. Many of you forecast this to turn West some 300-500 miles East of Florida and now claiming a possible turn of 50-80 miles East of Florida as a success. NOT! BTW-these are the same people claiming South Florida shouldn't be under a TS warning. And it is still amazing to me how these same people are ridiculing those who say it will get close to Florida and in fact it has. I've been amazed at the lack of respect towards people who said it would get close to Florida. So, for people who called for this to turn the last few days may I suggest you humble up and have a plate of crow. You know who you are.

actually I think you meant north and the system is stationary now with all the weather on the eastern side so...I don't think a TS warning is needed. Keep in mind how much that requires. People have to open the EOC and shelters have to be opened and it also costs money. I don't think a warning is required and if it was it would be in place. We are weather enthusiasts and they are Pros. I am sure the NHC and the NWS etc know their jobs by now. I am shocked at the behavior I have seen on here today. If there was a real threat I would be exhausted by now deleting all the nonsense posts. I only Hope some of your read your posts and realize how ridiculous they look. Like I said in my previous post. The Mets on here take time to try and help understand the weather and the how and whys. Try listening to them for a while. This post is directed at everyone. Not just one.

There was absolutely no dis-respect intented towards the METS. I very much respect Them. They're not always gonna be right but far more right than I could ever be. I'm refering to a few posts that have been made the last few days that said "ABSOLUTELY FLORIDA IS OUT OF THE WOODS". Which was/totally irresponsible and I did email a Mod about it and didn't get a reply baCK nor that I could tell were those posts deleted.

[cpdaman]

wild beach erosion in lantana florida

i was down at the beach and they were literally pouring cement as high tide was undercutting a new 8 story condo now literally "on the water". the tide would rush in and then they were securing the 12,000 pound blocks they had plopped in front during low tide trying to buy time to pour the cement.


100 yards down the coast two small stairwells were being battered and one life guard tower had a foot or so of water plus the shorebreak smacking against the wood pillars (as life guards were in it!) there was about a 15 foot ledge undercutting the stairwells and the sand was sliding but when i left they were still standing.

I think the LLC will start to weaken as it goes into N cuban coast (near mountains), and unless it starts moving NNE the winds should die down (since the high is moving off the mid atlantic as well)

[Frank2]

Yes, though the main body of convection is now moving northward, well away from the low level swirl, so, good news since this should keep Noel as a weak system, considering the shear is strong from South Florida northward, so, the chance of it becoming something more than it is now isn't very high (or is very low, depending)...

[boat]

Dangerous jellies!

Lifeguards are also flying purple flags warning swimmers of the possibility of dangerous Portuguese man-of-war jellyfish close to shore, WPLG reported.

[gatorcane]

Yes, though the main body of convection is now moving northward, well away from the low level swirl, so, good news since this should keep Noel as a weak system, considering the shear is strong from South Florida northward, so, the chance of it becoming something more than it is now isn't very high (or is very low, depending)...

hopefully but I am not convinced yet.

[HURAKAN]

[Evil Jeremy]

Second Cuban landfall has occoured

[Blown Away]

Awesome graphic, it says it all!

[Evil Jeremy]

With all of the mountains, there is a good chance that it might just die in Cuba.

[Thunder44]

Second Cuban landfall has occoured

It seems to be making a loop.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like Noel is trying to go Trick or Treating on every island possible...

[Grease Monkey]

Like I said. The ghost of chris 2006 is taking over noel.

[Gustywind]

Take a look at the upper level winds on the 12Z GFS (below). As it moves northward, wind shear steadily increases. If the low-level center moves toward Florida Noel gets ripped apart by shear. Westerly winds aloft are steadily increasing across Florida, making for a very hostile environment north of Noel.

By the way, I just checked my email for a copy of the first track I issued on the disturbance (long before it became Noel). It was issued at 10am Thursday, October 25th. I had it crossing central Cuba from the south Monday night and moving N-NNE, passing 60-80 miles east of Miami today. (We issue 7-day tracks for certain customers that need a longer-range outlook on disturbances that could potentially develop into storms.)

Anyway, here's the 200mb wind flow valid 10am CDT this morning from the 12Z GFS:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
High Shear good news for you in US glad to see that nothing will happen if if this high shear values continues( should it verifies too but given the trend of my untrained eyes hope i'm wrong to dot the area and impacting Noel . Whearas maybe unhopefully the severe drought will continue in some regions if i read correctly a few replies in some locations and a famous Lake
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[caneman]

didn't the Euro actaully weaken it and drop it into the NW Caribb? Is it still doing or showing that?

[boat]

Like I said. The ghost of chris 2006 is taking over noel.

It's possible. I saw something like it once on Ghost Whisperer.

[bocadude86]

Right on the coast but doesnt seem to be diving southwest anymore

[Grease Monkey]

Oh I get it, what happens in cuba, stays in cuba. No wait that's vegas. Ok i'm still confused.

[Evil Jeremy]

Well, the rain is going to miss us. Now all we are going to have is a bunch of wind lol.

[CrazyC83]

Right on the coast but doesnt seem to be diving southwest anymore

Looks like he is just following the islands.

My intensity guess is 50 kt with the flight data.