Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Evil Jeremy]

50? that is really high for this sheared thing.

[Brent]

Here's an 18Z surface plot with satellite. Red crosshairs represent the center. All squalls displaced to the east due to shear. Note the winds along the FL east coast are down from yesterday. High pressure to the north is weakening and there's not as much cool air flowing down the southeast U.S. Coast today. Winds around the center of Noel are probably only in the 15 kt range. Haven't seen any reports of TS force winds near the squalls to the northeast as I was seeing yesterday. If there are any TS force winds, they're confined to some VERY small pockets in that squall about 70-90 miles NE of the center.

As always the voice of reason. I can't even read through this thread without getting a horrible headache.

[bocadude86]

new convection is firing to the NE of the center, as long as he stays right on the coast and doesnt move inland he may still have a shot at the 65mph storm NHC is forecasting

[Grease Monkey]

Like I said. The ghost of chris 2006 is taking over noel.

It's possible. I saw something like it once on Ghost Whisperer.

Well if so, you would think Chris wouldn't make the same mistake twice and give noel the life he never had.

[cpdaman]

Second Cuban landfall has occoured

It seems to be making a loop.

we shall see, so far i call it half a loop

if it now continues the loop it would be going NE (at least temporarily) and in line with the mid and upper level shear which should allow temporary strengthening this evening (however if it just starts sinking into cuba, i think i may need a drink

also either way it looks like the winds are starting to slowly come down over florida as the high to the north weakens and slides east

it's a good thing , because the erosion was taking a toll on beach front property

[boat]

Like I said. The ghost of chris 2006 is taking over noel.

It's possible. I saw something like it once on Ghost Whisperer.

Well if so, you would think Chris wouldn't make the same mistake twice and give noel the life he never had.

Chris can't help it. Without the help of the Ghost Whisperer he will just keep living the same embarrassing death over and over.

[caneman]

No need to get a headache Brent. I don't see anyone claiming it is going to get strong. I most certainly am not or have not. However, many claimed it would get close to Florida - much closer than models or some predicted and it in fact has. Weak or not, that is a fact. Nothing wrong with people stating that fact or now the obvious. Oh by the way - much respect to Derek for stating he is dumbfounded by this system. I am as well. WXMAN57 has laid out some compelling reaones for the turn but it just hasn't occurred yet and has gone further West than predicted.

[bocadude86]

ships wants to bring Noel up to 60kts in 24hrs....

[wxman57]

Wxman, why do you say there is no tropical storm force winds when actually the winds have increased, and the NHC keeps it at a TS.?

I'm talking about actual reports of TS force winds, not recon estimates. There were plenty of ships (and some reports in the Bahamas) yesterday and the day before of 35kt winds. None today. You have to understand that the wind field in a TC is not often uniform or symmetrical (or expansive). A TS can be "stronger" but have a much smaller area of TS-force winds.

[CrazyC83]

50? that is really high for this sheared thing.

SFMR was 53 kt (the highest valid reading), and FL winds were 49 kt (44 at surface). Combining them brings it down to 49 kt, which makes 50 kt the best estimate IMO.

[SouthFLTropics]

If one word could describe Noel I think it would have to be - tough...

Meaning, tough to track, tough to kill, tough to forecast, etc.

SFT

[jlauderdal]

Wxman, why do you say there is no tropical storm force winds when actually the winds have increased, and the NHC keeps it at a TS.?

I'm talking about actual reports of TS force winds, not recon estimates. There were plenty of ships (and some reports in the Bahamas) yesterday and the day before of 35kt winds. None today. You have to understand that the wind field in a TC is not often uniform or symmetrical (or expansive). A TS can be "stronger" but have a much smaller area of TS-force winds.

maybe the ships left the area, just a thought

[rainydaze]

In the last 3 hours winds went from 24 to 22 to 17 sustained. Still gusts of 28, 36, 30. This is from the WPB NWS recorded at the WPB airport.

[Tropics Guy]

Looks like he's doing a small loop, will be interesting if he shoots out N or NE 'ward from here.

[Cyclone1]

[Grease Monkey]

It's possible. I saw something like it once on Ghost Whisperer.

Well if so, you would think Chris wouldn't make the same mistake twice and give noel the life he never had.[/quote]

Chris can't help it. Without the help of the Ghost Whisperer he will just keep living the same embarrassing death over and over.[/quote]

Now I get it. Thanks for clearing that up for me.

[bocadude86]

looks like he is just spinning in place...

[bocadude86]

or perhaps being pulled in by the heavier convection to his NE

[cpdaman]

Hurakan would it be possible to attach another loop of this visible but w/ the back ground less defined so the clouds/center can be seen easier

would like to see if it is completing it little loop or wether it may sink into cuba

[HURAKAN]

31/1745 UTC 22.5N 78.9W T2.5/2.5 NOEL -- Atlantic Ocean