Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

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ericinmia
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#2861 Postby ericinmia » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:14 pm

That was NOT what JB was saying....

He says 40-60 mph effects on south fla coast, as storm passes as a possible cat 1 75 miles east.

It is his 'worst case possible' scenario for it to make it to cat2-3 with the possibilty that the eye could skirt the coast....

He said south florida would need to watch out if this storm makes it to 80 west before starting to head north...
-Eric
Last edited by ericinmia on Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#2862 Postby Frank2 » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:15 pm

From the above VIS loop, it seems Noel is a fairly weak disorganized Tropical Storm at this time - from the loop, it also appears that South Florida won't receive any rain from this system at all, due to the strong southwesterly shear to the north...

As far as JB is concerned - AccuWeather needs to merge with the Sci-Fi Channel - they created a lot of needless worry over Gabrielle, and, now are doing the same with Noel - they need to cease and desist when it comes to their very unprofessional ways...
Last edited by Frank2 on Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#2863 Postby Vortex » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:16 pm

Convection re-firing on the east side of circulation...Looks tobecome increasing squally over S.FL tonight...especially after midnight through midday
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#2864 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:16 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
caneman wrote:OK, I'm biting. what does Joe B. say?



It has gotten stronger last day despite land, as it is a 140 pound wrestler who can mainstain on 1500 calories a day. Frictional effects are pulling it along Cuban coast 'til it gets near 80ºW, where coastline bends, finally freeing it to move North or Northeast. It will be at a buffet table, full of decent outflow, inflow, warm water, could go Cat 2 hurricane, pass within 75 miles East of MIA, worst case, might approach Cat 3, and while eye stays offshore, MIA may get briefly into eye-wall and experience hurricane force winds.



Are you kidding me...I cannot believe that he would have the nerve to forecast that. Although I guess if it keeps people watching his broadcasts and he keeps making money then he will continue to sensationalize everything. If it were to actually do that then me, a bunch of other posters here, the pro mets here, and the NHC would all have to eat a crow buffet. I don't think so! Please. Sorry about the rant but that's just annoying. It must be sweeps week on FNC.

:spam: :roll: :double:

SFT
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2865 Postby HenkL » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:16 pm

URNT15 KWBC 312000
NOAA3 0916A NOEL HDOB 05 20071031
195100 2539N 08106W 6155 04199 0045 +051 +013 040020 020 999 999 03
195130 2537N 08105W 6154 04199 0047 +049 +011 039020 021 999 999 03
195200 2535N 08105W 6154 04199 0046 +049 +015 039021 022 999 999 03
195230 2532N 08104W 6154 04198 0048 +048 +021 042022 022 999 999 03
195300 2530N 08104W 6155 04198 0044 +050 +021 043023 023 999 999 03
195330 2527N 08103W 6154 04199 0045 +050 +024 045025 026 999 999 03
195400 2525N 08103W 6154 04199 0044 +049 +027 047027 028 999 999 03
195430 2523N 08102W 6154 04198 0043 +049 +024 045026 027 999 999 03
195500 2520N 08102W 6155 04195 0040 +051 +023 041027 029 999 999 03
195530 2518N 08102W 6155 04194 0038 +052 +020 042029 030 999 999 03
195600 2516N 08101W 6154 04195 0034 +054 +017 041026 027 999 999 03
195630 2513N 08101W 6155 04193 0030 +057 +014 035025 026 999 999 03
195700 2511N 08100W 6154 04195 0036 +052 +019 040026 026 999 999 03
195730 2508N 08059W 6154 04194 0036 +052 +020 044027 027 999 999 03
195800 2506N 08059W 6154 04194 0034 +053 +018 048029 030 999 999 03
195830 2504N 08058W 6153 04195 0030 +055 +016 050029 029 999 999 03
195900 2501N 08058W 6140 04211 0027 +055 +013 049028 029 999 999 03
195930 2459N 08057W 6141 04209 0021 +058 +013 048027 027 999 999 03
200000 2457N 08057W 6141 04209 0017 +060 +015 044025 025 999 999 03
200030 2454N 08056W 6140 04209 0022 +057 +019 045025 026 999 999 03
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#2866 Postby shortwave » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:16 pm

now taking bets.... 3-1 odds its started its trek to the NNE... house takes 10%
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#2867 Postby Bgator » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:17 pm

Frank2 wrote:From the above VIS loop, it seems Noel is a fairly weak disorganized Tropical Storm at this time - from the loop, it also appears that South Florida won't receive any rain from this system at all, due to the strong southwesterly shear to the north...

AccuWeather needs to merge with the Sci-Fi Channel - they created a lot of needless worry over Gabrielle, and, need to stop their very unprofessional ways...

We have already recieved rain...even though showers have been quick i have recieved near an inch of rain in the past 24 hours.
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#2868 Postby hiflyer » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:17 pm

FLZ062-065-066-069-070-075>078-312100-
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND KEYS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PUNTA GORDA LGT RAIN 77 72 84 NE13 29.88S
FT MYERS MOSUNNY 83 70 64 NE22G31 29.82F
SOUTHWEST INTL PTSUNNY 82 70 66 NE22G31 29.83S
NAPLES CLOUDY 84 72 65 NE17G23 29.79F
MARATHON MOSUNNY 84 73 69 NE17 29.72F
KEY WEST NAS MOSUNNY 85 75 72 NE16G24 29.73F
KEY WEST INTL MOSUNNY 86 74 67 NE18G24 29.73F

STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
VENICE 77 78 60/ 14/ 19 1011.4F
25.7N 85.7W 80 82 40/ 21/ 27 1011.0F 8/ 7
DRY TORTUGAS NOT AVBL
SAND KEY 80 30/ 19/ 23 1007.8F
SOMBRERO KEY 81 83 40/ 25/ 27 1005.9F
LONG KEY 80 80 40/ 20/ 22 1006.2F
MOLASSES REEF 81 82 60/ 24/ 28 N/A

$$
FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174-312100-
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
W PALM BEACH MOSUNNY 81 76 84 E24G31 29.83F
FT LAUDER-EXEC LGT RAIN 79 73 82 NE22G30 29.78F
FT LAUDERDALE PTSUNNY 81 72 74 NE21G28 29.77S
POMPANO BEACH MOSUNNY 81 73 76 NE21G31 29.79F
PEMBROKE PINES LGT RAIN 79 73 82 NE24G35 29.80F
OPA LOCKA CLOUDY 76 74 93 E10 29.78F
MIAMI LGT RAIN 76 72 87 E14G23 29.78F FOG
MIAMI BEACH N/A 76 73 88 E28G40 29.77
WEST KENDALL PTSUNNY 79 72 78 NE20G28 29.77R
HOMESTEAD PTSUNNY 82 74 78 NE26G33 29.75F

STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
LAKE WORTH 79 70/ 24/ 27 1010.3F
FOWEY ROCKS 79 82 60/ 26/ 28 1007.5F
SETTLEMENT POINT 74 70/ 22/ 23 1009.7F
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#2869 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:17 pm

It has gotten stronger last day despite land, as it is a 140 pound wrestler who can mainstain on 1500 calories a day. Frictional effects are pulling it along Cuban coast 'til it gets near 80ºW, where coastline bends, finally freeing it to move North or Northeast. It will be at a buffet table, full of decent outflow, inflow, warm water, could go Cat 2 hurricane, pass within 75 miles East of MIA, worst case, might approach Cat 3, and while eye stays offshore, MIA may get briefly into eye-wall and experience hurricane force winds.[/

Curious, what time did he say that? This morning or afternoon?
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#2870 Postby HenkL » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:18 pm

URNT15 KWBC 312011
NOAA3 0916A NOEL HDOB 06 20071031
200100 2452N 08056W 6141 04207 3020 +058 +018 041025 025 999 999 03
200130 2450N 08055W 6140 04207 0019 +058 +016 044026 026 999 999 03
200200 2447N 08054W 6140 04207 0017 +059 +014 045028 028 999 999 03
200230 2445N 08054W 6140 04206 0016 +059 +015 047028 028 999 999 03
200300 2442N 08053W 6141 04204 0012 +060 +017 049027 027 999 999 03
200330 2440N 08053W 6141 04204 0013 +059 +020 044027 028 999 999 03
200400 2438N 08052W 6140 04204 0010 +060 +024 036025 026 999 999 03
200430 2435N 08052W 6140 04203 0003 +065 +004 031022 023 999 999 03
200500 2433N 08051W 6141 04203 0000 +067 +003 028024 024 022 000 00
200530 2431N 08051W 6141 04201 0005 +063 +006 031026 026 022 000 00
200600 2428N 08050W 6141 04200 0006 +062 +010 033026 026 023 000 00
200630 2426N 08050W 6141 04199 0006 +061 +010 033028 028 025 000 00
200730 2421N 08049W 6140 04198 0002 +062 +013 035025 025 027 000 00
200800 2419N 08048W 6141 04198 0001 +062 +013 031024 025 026 000 00
200830 2416N 08048W 6142 04196 0000 +063 +013 026025 026 026 000 00
200900 2414N 08047W 6142 04194 9994 +065 +014 026025 026 026 000 00
200930 2411N 08047W 6142 04193 9989 +068 +010 028025 025 026 000 00
201000 2409N 08046W 6140 04194 9989 +068 +010 026022 023 027 000 00
201030 2407N 08046W 6141 04193 9990 +067 +007 022021 022 027 000 00
201100 2404N 08045W 6141 04194 9991 +067 +007 024021 021 027 000 00
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#2871 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:19 pm

Image
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#2872 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:20 pm

I think Noel is about to start heading NE...

I can't see how he can go any father west at this point.
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Re:

#2873 Postby chadtm80 » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:21 pm

gatorcane wrote:I think Noel is about to start heading NE...

I can't see how he can go any father west at this point.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Sorry.. all I mean is :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Its just that... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re:

#2874 Postby Bgator » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:21 pm

gatorcane wrote:I think Noel is about to start heading NE...

I can't see how he can go any father west at this point.

lol, people have been saying that for days, but your right it probably will, it has stalled for the moment though.
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Re: Re:

#2875 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:22 pm

chadtm80 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:I think Noel is about to start heading NE...

I can't see how he can go any father west at this point.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Sorry.. all I mean is :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Its just that... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


lol that was funny
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :eek:

seriously Noel *should* go NE soon...
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#2876 Postby Gustywind » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:23 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Well, the rain is going to miss us. Now all we are going to have is a bunch of wind lol.


Yeah you seem blessed this year :D so good news..but only for the rain ...it's another story to have some water...i understand :( but this season remind me curiously 2005 in my island, we were in a window of paradise seeing all the features crossing in all directions... and you in US unhopefully experiencing a nigtmare with all the features drifting often in or near your country. Si in my humble opinion this " strange " pattern reminds me that situation in 2007...but things has radically changed this year" in a sort of lotery maybe" :double: .... so for this year caribbean is apparently involded...suffering from Dean Felix and Noel and numerous strong twaves...hopefully close sometimes to Td status but poofing just on us or near what a timing...tkanks God...but whereas bringing "no more "than copious amonts of moisture water with flooding , muslides and huge episodes of strong thunderstorms :eek: in my island and my others neighbours....testifiying the highs numbers of warnings or yellows alerts in Guadelope for example, but recently all the Leewards with Noel( as a pertubed area) has put watches and specifics alerts! In a nutshell ... what a year for the caribbean islands :eek: :eek: :roll: ...Whereas, as the season has not ended it will be a little early or premature to assume that... but :flag: for the moment is blessed without having experienced huge features in cyclonic terms this year 2007, that means more than a cat 1 cane or amazing weather action(correct me if i'm wrong :roll: )...but certainly hope that this trend will continue for you and by extension carib too :D,so given this forward angle it will a HAPPY END (meaning no landfall in any other country) :D :wink: :) but once again time wil tell, mother nature has always surprises in store :wink: don't let you guard down is the key in forecasting weather :) :D
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#2877 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:23 pm

NOAA plane now enroute.
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#2878 Postby bocadude86 » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:24 pm

He will probably start heading NNW or N first not NE
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#2879 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:25 pm

Image

Noel likes to defy people. People say north, he goes west. They say NE, he meanders.
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images

#2880 Postby Tropics Guy » Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:27 pm

I agree. I think he is just finishing a small loop or a big wobble, though the last two frames appear to be going NE. Think this could be the beginning of the change of direction (N or NNE or NE), doubt he can make any more progress west.
Last edited by Tropics Guy on Wed Oct 31, 2007 3:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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