Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[ncweatherwizard]

From the above VIS loop, it seems Noel is a fairly weak disorganized Tropical Storm at this time - from the loop, it also appears that South Florida won't receive any rain from this system at all, due to the strong southwesterly shear to the north...

AccuWeather needs to merge with the Sci-Fi Channel - they created a lot of needless worry over Gabrielle, and, need to stop their very unprofessional ways...

We have already recieved rain...even though showers have been quick i have recieved near an inch of rain in the past 24 hours.

Don't forget that there's a cold front to the north of us right now, so we're getting easterly onshore flow that is causing showers. Of course, Noel enhances that easterly flow, so really we probably wouldn't be getting rain if Noel weren't there. Still, the rain we've gotten so far isn't really part of the storm, but of course, in the end rain is rain.

[Bgator]

Ive been looking at the loop, and it looks like that "NE" jump is just the llc trying to get closer to the convection, and not a true movement, it still looks stationary to me.

[bocadude86]

Agree looks as if the heavy convection is just pulling the LLC towards it

[SouthFLTropics]

Ive been looking at the loop, and it looks like that "NE" jump is just the llc trying to get closer to the convection, and not a true movement, it still looks stationary to me.

How can you tell the difference?

SFT

[Bgator]

Ive been looking at the loop, and it looks like that "NE" jump is just the llc trying to get closer to the convection, and not a true movement, it still looks stationary to me.

How can you tell the difference?

SFT

The movement was more of a sudden jump, i dont think a storm will not go from stationary to accelerating in 2 frames. the overall structure of the storm is also just sitting there, but the llc seems to be getting closer to that one line of convection to its ne.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ive been looking at the loop, and it looks like that "NE" jump is just the llc trying to get closer to the convection, and not a true movement, it still looks stationary to me.

How can you tell the difference?

SFT

The movement was more of a sudden jump, i dont think a storm will not go from stationary to accelerating in 2 frames. the overall structure of the storm is also just sitting there, but the llc seems to be getting closer to that one line of convection to its ne.

I guess I can buy that...time will tell

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 312033
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
2100 UTC WED OCT 31 2007

AT 5PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH
OF OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.

[Thunder44]

As per 5pm Advisory, a TS Watch has been issued for SE Florida coast.

[storms in NC]

it is stationary at this time. But you will start to see a NE movement soon. Like someone said it has gone far as it can west. Fla will not get hit by Noel. You my have some outter bands to come though on the East coast of Fla but that would be short lived.

[hiflyer]

Trop storm watch issued for sofla just now.....the ol weather alert radio just went off

[bocadude86]

If you look at the structure of the storm it is not moving NE with the llc which I would think is just the center being drawn towards the heavy convection

[Brent]

OK, I'm biting. what does Joe B. say?

It has gotten stronger last day despite land, as it is a 140 pound wrestler who can mainstain on 1500 calories a day. Frictional effects are pulling it along Cuban coast 'til it gets near 80ºW, where coastline bends, finally freeing it to move North or Northeast. It will be at a buffet table, full of decent outflow, inflow, warm water, could go Cat 2 hurricane, pass within 75 miles East of MIA, worst case, might approach Cat 3, and while eye stays offshore, MIA may get briefly into eye-wall and experience hurricane force winds.

Enough said.

and as expected, it's turning. The beginning of the end.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 312032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...NOEL LINGERING ALONG THE CUBAN COAST...TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...

AT 5PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH
OF OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 190
MILES...305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 240 MILES...385
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

NOEL HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A
GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...22.6 N...78.8 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...996 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT41 KNHC 312038
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

THE CENTER OF NOEL DRIFTED WESTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
MIDDAY...BUT RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...OR PERHAPS
MAKING A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP...JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA. THE CENTER IS NOT AS WELL CONNECTED TO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS
IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT
THE TWO WILL NOT COMPLETELY SEPARATE. INDEED...THERE WAS SOME
EVIDENCE IN THE RECON DATA AROUND 18Z THAT A SECOND VORTICITY
CENTER WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SURFACE CENTER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE CYCLONE...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE A NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION
OF NOEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A GFDL/HWRF/GFS
BLEND...EXCEPT FOR BEING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR
DATA. THERE COULD BE SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEGINS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
NOEL WILL BECOME A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAVE
DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD OF NOEL HAS
EXPANDED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW
BRINGS TROPICAL STORM WINDS TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
SINCE ANY SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN WINDS AT THE COAST WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WHILE A WATCH IS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
A LONGER LEAD TIME THAN A WARNING...IT ALSO CONVEYS THE
POSSIBILITY...AS OPPOSED TO THE EXPECTATION...OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS. BECAUSE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...A WATCH IS MORE APPROPRIATE THAN A
WARNING. THE NEED FOR A WARNING WILL BE REASSESSED THIS EVENING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 22.6N 78.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 23.5N 79.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 25.3N 78.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 28.0N 76.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 31.5N 72.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/1800Z 39.0N 66.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/1800Z 49.0N 57.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/1800Z 60.0N 47.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Frank2]

Perhaps this will calm some fears:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

not exactly a favorable environment for Noel...

[HURAKAN]

5 PM Discussion of the TS watch:

Winds associated with the environmental pressure gradient have
decreased below gale force along the Southeast Florida coast.
Reconnaissance data indicate that the wind field of Noel has
expanded in the northwest quadrant...and the official forecast now
brings tropical storm winds to near the Southeast Florida coast.
Since any subsequent increase in winds at the coast would be
associated with the tropical storm...a tropical storm watch is
being issued at this time. While a watch is usually associated with
a longer lead time than a warning...it also conveys the
possibility...as opposed to the expectation...of tropical storm
conditions. Because the tropical storm force wind radii are
forecast to remain offshore...a watch is more appropriate than a
warning. The need for a warning will be reassessed this evening.

[HURAKAN]

Historical:

[HenkL]

URNT15 KWBC 312026
NOAA3 0916A NOEL HDOB 01 20071031
201700 2356N 08040W 6143 04192 9986 +070 +014 029023 023 999 999 03
201730 2357N 08043W 6143 04192 9988 +070 +009 025023 024 999 999 03
201800 2355N 08045W 6295 03987 9990 +078 +020 022025 026 999 999 03
201830 2353N 08045W 6489 03737 9996 +091 +030 029028 029 027 000 00
201900 2350N 08045W 6686 03488 0007 +099 +031 035029 030 028 000 00
201930 2348N 08045W 6878 03252 0015 +108 +041 036027 027 025 000 00
202000 2345N 08045W 7067 03025 0018 +120 +051 038027 028 027 000 00
202030 2343N 08045W 7232 02830 0016 +132 +059 037027 027 028 000 00
202100 2341N 08045W 7409 02624 0015 +145 +065 036027 028 028 000 00
202130 2338N 08045W 7590 02419 0021 +146 +106 038026 027 028 000 00
202200 2336N 08045W 7776 02213 0028 +150 +117 030028 029 028 000 00
202230 2334N 08044W 7946 02028 0028 +160 +122 033029 030 999 999 03
202300 2334N 08042W 8121 01842 0030 +167 +138 046030 032 999 999 03
202330 2336N 08041W 8299 01656 0034 +174 +148 054033 034 999 999 03
202400 2337N 08042W 8414 01541 0036 +183 +153 050033 034 999 999 03
202430 2337N 08044W 8489 01463 0036 +186 +159 046033 033 026 000 00
202500 2336N 08046W 8603 01348 0036 +192 +164 048033 033 999 999 03
202530 2337N 08048W 8699 01255 0040 +189 +173 049032 032 999 999 03
202600 2338N 08049W 8914 01043 0044 +193 +184 048032 033 026 000 00
202630 2340N 08050W 9159 00810 0045 +211 +194 048034 035 999 999 03

Either the plane is making kind of circle, or the lat/lon positions are somewhat suspect.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 312036
NOAA3 0916A NOEL HDOB 02 20071031
202700 2341N 08050W 9346 00635 0045 +225 +201 046034 035 999 999 03
202730 2340N 08048W 9521 00470 0044 +236 +209 044035 036 025 000 00
202800 2339N 08047W 9531 00462 0043 +237 +213 043032 033 025 000 00
202830 2337N 08046W 9538 00456 0043 +239 +211 041033 034 024 000 00
202900 2336N 08045W 9537 00456 0043 +237 +214 039031 032 022 000 03
202930 2334N 08043W 9539 00454 0043 +238 +218 038030 031 021 000 00
203000 2333N 08042W 9538 00455 0043 +238 +214 037032 033 024 000 00
203030 2333N 08040W 9538 00452 0042 +237 +218 037032 033 023 000 00
203100 2332N 08038W 9541 00450 0040 +237 +217 036031 032 023 000 03
203130 2331N 08036W 9542 00449 0039 +238 +218 036031 032 020 000 00
203200 2330N 08035W 9542 00447 0038 +238 +218 033030 030 022 000 00
203230 2329N 08033W 9539 00449 0037 +237 +219 033031 031 021 000 00
203300 2329N 08031W 9537 00449 0036 +236 +223 031030 031 023 000 00
203330 2328N 08029W 9540 00448 0035 +236 +223 029032 032 025 000 00
203400 2328N 08027W 9540 00445 0034 +236 +223 030032 032 025 000 00
203430 2328N 08026W 9537 00448 0034 +237 +219 032033 034 026 000 00
203500 2328N 08024W 9540 00446 0034 +236 +219 035033 034 027 000 00
203530 2327N 08022W 9539 00446 0034 +236 +220 037033 034 026 000 00
203600 2327N 08020W 9540 00444 0033 +235 +221 037033 034 027 000 00
203630 2327N 08018W 9541 00443 0032 +236 +220 037033 034 026 000 00

Now at operational altitude. 34 kt FL.

It's a NOAA mission, that is why the points are unusual.

[SouthFLTropics]

5 PM Discussion of the TS watch:

Winds associated with the environmental pressure gradient have
decreased below gale force along the Southeast Florida coast.
Reconnaissance data indicate that the wind field of Noel has
expanded in the northwest quadrant...and the official forecast now
brings tropical storm winds to near the Southeast Florida coast.
Since any subsequent increase in winds at the coast would be
associated with the tropical storm...a tropical storm watch is
being issued at this time. While a watch is usually associated with
a longer lead time than a warning...it also conveys the
possibility...as opposed to the expectation...of tropical storm
conditions. Because the tropical storm force wind radii are
forecast to remain offshore...a watch is more appropriate than a
warning. The need for a warning will be reassessed this evening.

Very good explanation from the NHC for the issue of a watch versus a warning. Way to go NHC...good job as always and very professional. No need to cause unnecessary alarm for this nasty trick or treater. Go home Noel, you can't have any candy!

SFT