Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[HenkL]

URNT15 KWBC 312036
NOAA3 0916A NOEL HDOB 02 20071031
202700 2341N 08050W 9346 00635 0045 +225 +201 046034 035 999 999 03
202730 2340N 08048W 9521 00470 0044 +236 +209 044035 036 025 000 00
202800 2339N 08047W 9531 00462 0043 +237 +213 043032 033 025 000 00
202830 2337N 08046W 9538 00456 0043 +239 +211 041033 034 024 000 00
202900 2336N 08045W 9537 00456 0043 +237 +214 039031 032 022 000 03
202930 2334N 08043W 9539 00454 0043 +238 +218 038030 031 021 000 00
203000 2333N 08042W 9538 00455 0043 +238 +214 037032 033 024 000 00
203030 2333N 08040W 9538 00452 0042 +237 +218 037032 033 023 000 00
203100 2332N 08038W 9541 00450 0040 +237 +217 036031 032 023 000 03
203130 2331N 08036W 9542 00449 0039 +238 +218 036031 032 020 000 00
203200 2330N 08035W 9542 00447 0038 +238 +218 033030 030 022 000 00
203230 2329N 08033W 9539 00449 0037 +237 +219 033031 031 021 000 00
203300 2329N 08031W 9537 00449 0036 +236 +223 031030 031 023 000 00
203330 2328N 08029W 9540 00448 0035 +236 +223 029032 032 025 000 00
203400 2328N 08027W 9540 00445 0034 +236 +223 030032 032 025 000 00
203430 2328N 08026W 9537 00448 0034 +237 +219 032033 034 026 000 00
203500 2328N 08024W 9540 00446 0034 +236 +219 035033 034 027 000 00
203530 2327N 08022W 9539 00446 0034 +236 +220 037033 034 026 000 00
203600 2327N 08020W 9540 00444 0033 +235 +221 037033 034 027 000 00
203630 2327N 08018W 9541 00443 0032 +236 +220 037033 034 026 000 00

They where descending in a circle, now heading towards the storm.

[Bgator]

Max mayfield just said the reason it has stalled is there is a battle. The low level steering wants to bring it to the west, but the mid to upper level is trying to stear it NE.
Can any pros chime in on this?

[HURAKAN]

[storms in NC]

Historical:

I think they forgot 1 I know of.

Hurricane Hazel Oct 15 1954

Am sorry that is just on TS very sorry

[bocadude86]

Center may be trying to reform..

[SouthFLTropics]

Max mayfield just said the reason it has stalled is there is a battle. The low level steering wants to bring it to the west, but the mid to upper level is trying to stear it NE.

Kinda like watching a prize pay per view event...LLC Noel vs Mid and Upper Level Circulation. My money is on the mid and upper. LLC Noel is fighting a handicap match here...

SFT

[artist]

being here in se Fl. you can now see the clouds overhead are being pulled by the storm at least here in Palm Beach county.
Having been thru several it is obvious when you see it. My ground is saturated from all the squalls we have had come thru as well. It was close to saturation from rains a while ago, but now is. IT isn't that there have been really heavy rains but off and on all day and night for the last couple of days - particulalry today. Yesterday may have been the front - today I would venture to say it is from Noel.

[storms in NC]

Max mayfield just said the reason it has stalled is there is a battle. The low level steering wants to bring it to the west, but the mid to upper level is trying to stear it NE.
Can any pros chime in on this?

I am not a pro but I think it is cause it is a weak TS and most of the time when they are weak they will go west. But I maybe wrong.

[CourierPR]

Noel's pressure has dropped, its winds have increased, and it has not made the projected turn. Let's sit back and watch the show.

[caneman]

OK, I'm biting. what does Joe B. say?

It has gotten stronger last day despite land, as it is a 140 pound wrestler who can mainstain on 1500 calories a day. Frictional effects are pulling it along Cuban coast 'til it gets near 80ºW, where coastline bends, finally freeing it to move North or Northeast. It will be at a buffet table, full of decent outflow, inflow, warm water, could go Cat 2 hurricane, pass within 75 miles East of MIA, worst case, might approach Cat 3, and while eye stays offshore, MIA may get briefly into eye-wall and experience hurricane force winds.

Enough said.

and as expected, it's turning. The beginning of the end.

Well NHC seems to disagree with you as they say stationary.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KWBC 312046
NOAA3 0916A NOEL HDOB 03 20071031
203700 2327N 08016W 9542 00441 0032 +236 +221 037033 034 026 000 00
203730 2327N 08014W 9542 00441 0030 +236 +221 039033 034 025 000 00
203800 2326N 08012W 9543 00438 0029 +237 +222 038033 033 026 000 00
203830 2326N 08011W 9541 00439 0028 +237 +221 038033 035 026 000 00
203900 2326N 08009W 9543 00437 0027 +237 +223 035034 036 027 000 00
203930 2325N 08007W 9540 00439 0026 +237 +223 038035 036 025 000 00
204000 2324N 08006W 9541 00436 0025 +237 +222 038036 037 025 000 00
204030 2323N 08004W 9542 00436 0025 +237 +220 039036 038 026 000 00
204100 2322N 08002W 9542 00435 0023 +237 +222 040036 039 028 000 00
204130 2321N 08001W 9541 00435 0023 +237 +221 039036 038 027 000 00
204200 2320N 07959W 9541 00433 0022 +238 +221 040035 036 026 000 00
204230 2319N 07958W 9542 00433 0021 +237 +224 035035 036 027 000 00
204300 2318N 07956W 9544 00429 0020 +237 +222 039036 037 027 000 00
204330 2317N 07954W 9539 00434 0019 +237 +219 041038 040 031 000 00
204400 2316N 07953W 9538 00433 0019 +236 +220 043038 040 032 001 00
204430 2315N 07951W 9543 00428 0016 +235 +217 043041 041 033 000 00
204500 2314N 07949W 9542 00428 0015 +234 +219 046039 040 030 000 00
204530 2314N 07948W 9541 00426 0013 +234 +219 045039 041 030 000 00
204600 2313N 07946W 9511 00451 0011 +233 +219 044039 040 031 000 00
204630 2312N 07944W 9510 00451 0010 +231 +221 043038 039 029 000 00

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Look at the center scooting toward the convection ... unless that's a good illusion.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KWBC 312056
NOAA3 0916A NOEL HDOB 04 20071031
204700 2311N 07943W 9508 00454 0010 +230 +220 045039 042 031 001 00
204730 2311N 07941W 9507 00454 0009 +232 +210 047042 042 031 000 00
204800 2310N 07940W 9507 00452 0008 +231 +215 046040 041 028 001 00
204830 2309N 07938W 9507 00451 0007 +230 +218 044038 039 030 000 00
204900 2308N 07936W 9506 00452 0007 +230 +220 045037 038 030 001 00
204930 2308N 07934W 9508 00450 0006 +229 +219 044037 038 030 000 00
205000 2307N 07933W 9508 00449 0004 +231 +217 043036 037 029 001 00
205030 2307N 07931W 9506 00447 0003 +228 +220 042036 037 030 000 00
205100 2306N 07929W 9508 00446 0001 +230 +217 042036 036 030 000 00
205130 2306N 07927W 9509 00444 0001 +230 +218 041035 035 030 001 00
205200 2305N 07926W 9507 00444 0000 +230 +217 039035 035 030 000 00
205230 2305N 07924W 9507 00445 0000 +229 +220 038034 035 029 001 00
205300 2304N 07922W 9506 00444 9998 +229 +220 037035 036 030 000 00
205330 2304N 07920W 9505 00444 9997 +228 +222 035034 034 029 000 00
205400 2303N 07918W 9505 00444 9996 +228 +223 036034 035 029 000 00
205430 2303N 07916W 9509 00439 9995 +229 +222 035034 034 029 001 00
205500 2303N 07915W 9507 00439 9993 +228 +222 034034 036 030 000 00
205530 2302N 07913W 9508 00438 9992 +229 +220 035032 033 030 001 00
205600 2302N 07911W 9506 00437 9991 +229 +224 037032 033 028 000 00
205630 2301N 07909W 9506 00436 9990 +230 +225 037031 032 028 000 00

Nearing the position where the LLC was from the NW.
Max flight level (950 hPa) wind: 42 kt
Max SFMR wind: 33 kt

[BigA]

Center moving back toward the convection would be good news for Florida, but not for the Bahamas, which will likely have to contend with a fairly potent tropical storm tonight and tomorrow.

[tgenius]

So with the LLC moving NE, Noel is doing what it was supposed to do finally and will exit right?

[HURAKAN]

I'm already sick of this. Noel doesn't make his mind, everyone is saying something different. Going crazy!!

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
236 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

.DISCUSSION...T.S.NOEL CURRENTLY SHIFTING NORTH OFF THE N CST OF
CUBA. THE TROUBLE CONTINUES TO BE EXACTLY WHAT TRACK WILL IT TAKE.
AT TIMES IT APPEARS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME SEPARATED
FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOEL PICKED
UP BY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE N CENTRAL
GOFMEX. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE RUNS
FROM THE NAM WHICH BRING NOEL NW TOWARDS S FLA. WHILE THIS IS
ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY WITH TROPICAL STORMS, ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER DOES EMERGE OUT FROM THE CONVECTION, THE NAM`S
SOLUTION IS TO WEAKEN THE UPSTREAM TROUGH TO NEARLY NOTHING AS THE
RIDGE IN THE SW U.S. BUILDS EAST ON THE TOP SIDE OF NOEL WHICH
WOULD BE THE REASON IT MOVES THE SYSTEM TO THE NW. HOWEVER,
LOOKING AT THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, IT IS CLEAR THE
SHORTWAVE IS CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHWARD. SO THE NAM DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. SO IN GOING WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION, WILL GO CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE WITH ITS LOWER POPS. AS
NOEL DOES MOVE OFF TO THE NE ON THURSDAY, THE TROUGH THAT IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WILL DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH S
FLA LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 60S
ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE
LONGER RANGE, THE GFS SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN KEEPING S FLA IN GENERAL N FLOW INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S. THIS IS
ONE FORECASTER THAT HOPES THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT AND WE CAN END
THE WET SEASON.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KWBC 312106
NOAA3 0916A NOEL HDOB 05 20071031
205700 2301N 07907W 9509 00435 9989 +232 +223 038029 030 026 000 00
205730 2301N 07905W 9508 00434 9988 +232 +225 038027 028 026 000 00
205800 2300N 07903W 9494 00447 9989 +231 +223 038027 027 026 000 00
205830 2300N 07901W 9487 00454 9988 +233 +223 038026 026 026 000 00
205900 2259N 07859W 9486 00455 9988 +231 +228 038026 027 024 000 00
205930 2259N 07857W 9487 00454 9988 +232 +227 044026 026 024 000 00
210000 2258N 07856W 9485 00454 9986 +234 +230 044024 025 021 000 00
210030 2258N 07854W 9485 00454 9985 +238 +228 044023 024 021 000 00
210100 2258N 07852W 9487 00451 9983 +244 +224 043022 023 024 000 00
210130 2257N 07850W 9488 00449 9982 +245 +226 041023 024 023 000 00
210200 2257N 07848W 9487 00450 9982 +244 +221 050023 023 023 000 00
210230 2257N 07846W 9488 00448 9980 +241 +226 049024 024 025 000 00
210300 2256N 07844W 9489 00445 9979 +240 +232 048025 026 029 001 00
210330 2256N 07842W 9455 00475 9978 +237 +236 053024 025 028 001 00
210400 2256N 07840W 9455 00476 9978 +236 +236 060024 025 026 001 00
210430 2256N 07839W 9458 00473 9977 +237 +237 079022 023 026 001 00
210500 2256N 07837W 9459 00471 9977 +238 +238 089021 022 028 003 00
210530 2256N 07835W 9456 00477 9978 +238 +238 107022 023 024 001 00
210600 2257N 07833W 9457 00477 9979 +237 +237 125024 025 016 000 00
210630 2257N 07831W 9459 00474 9980 +237 +237 139026 027 018 001 00

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Why do they keep mentioning southward progress when it's been moving north all day? I'd like to discuss it without speculating on a Florida hit.

[bocadude86]

Im not sure if he is moving NE of if the center is just relocating and then will head N