Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

#2921 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:16 pm

New mid level shear map. Noel still appears to be in a a small area of no shear, but it's closing up fast.

#2922 Postby **HenkL** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:24 pm

URNT15 KWBC 312116
NOAA3 0916A NOEL HDOB 06 20071031
210700 2257N 07829W 9455 00478 9981 +236 +236 142027 028 018 001 00
210730 2258N 07828W 9454 00481 9983 +236 +236 142027 028 019 000 00
210800 2258N 07826W 9456 00480 9985 +235 +235 140027 029 019 001 00
210830 2259N 07824W 9458 00480 9986 +235 +235 142028 029 020 003 00
210900 2259N 07822W 9457 00483 9987 +235 +235 149028 029 019 004 00
210930 2259N 07820W 9458 00482 9988 +236 +236 155028 029 015 000 00
211000 2300N 07818W 9453 00486 9988 +236 +236 159027 028 017 000 00
211030 2300N 07816W 9449 00491 9989 +235 +235 156027 029 022 001 00
211100 2300N 07814W 9449 00492 9990 +234 +234 154029 031 021 003 00
211130 2300N 07812W 9470 00475 9992 +236 +236 155028 029 026 002 00
211200 2300N 07810W 9474 00471 9993 +236 +236 149022 023 024 003 00
211230 2300N 07808W 9473 00474 9994 +236 +236 151027 030 023 003 00
211300 2300N 07806W 9477 00470 9995 +237 +237 150026 027 026 008 00
211330 2259N 07805W 9479 00470 9996 +238 +236 160024 027 028 008 00
211400 2259N 07803W 9475 00473 9997 +237 +236 165023 024 024 007 00
211430 2259N 07801W 9475 00474 9998 +237 +236 165023 024 029 006 00
211500 2258N 07759W 9476 00476 9999 +237 +235 166022 024 018 003 00
211530 2258N 07757W 9475 00477 0000 +239 +234 172026 027 019 002 00
211600 2257N 07756W 9475 00478 0001 +240 +233 174029 030 015 000 00
211630 2257N 07754W 9477 00475 0001 +240 +233 182028 029 011 000 00

Sal Collaziano · #2923 Postby **Sal Collaziano** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:30 pm

I just recorded some video at the Beach on Ocean Boulevard (Palm Beach). I'll post up links in a few...

chadtm80 · #2924 Postby **chadtm80** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:31 pm

Aquawind · #2925 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:34 pm

THIS IS
ONE FORECASTER THAT HOPES THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT AND WE CAN END
THE WET SEASON.

WHHHAAATTTT !!!! We are over a foot below normal going into the dry season and he is tired...LOL Hopefully he is the only one.. :lol:

What a selfish comment.

artist · #2926 Postby **artist** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:34 pm

Sal Collaziano wrote:I just recorded some video at the Beach on Ocean Boulevard (Palm Beach). I'll post up links in a few...

Looking forward to seeing it.

#2927 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:35 pm

NRL has 995 mb now

#2928 Postby **HenkL** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:37 pm

URNT15 KWBC 312126
NOAA3 0916A NOEL HDOB 07 20071031
211700 2256N 07752W 9474 00479 0001 +242 +230 182025 027 008 000 00
211730 2255N 07750W 9494 00460 0000 +244 +227 179029 029 016 000 00
211800 2255N 07748W 9498 00457 0002 +244 +226 180030 031 015 000 00
211830 2254N 07747W 9496 00461 0003 +244 +225 182030 031 016 000 00
211900 2253N 07745W 9497 00461 0005 +242 +228 184030 030 011 000 00
211930 2252N 07743W 9497 00461 0004 +243 +227 184030 031 018 000 00
212000 2251N 07742W 9497 00460 0003 +242 +229 185030 032 025 001 00
212030 2250N 07740W 9497 00460 0003 +245 +225 188033 033 029 005 00
212100 2250N 07738W 9497 00458 0002 +246 +223 189034 034 031 001 00
212130 2249N 07737W 9495 00462 0004 +243 +226 183028 032 028 002 00
212200 2248N 07735W 9494 00462 0004 +239 +235 176035 037 033 003 00
212230 2247N 07733W 9499 00460 0004 +240 +231 179036 036 031 001 00
212300 2246N 07732W 9498 00460 0005 +241 +225 181036 036 031 001 00
212330 2245N 07731W 9500 00458 0005 +243 +223 183037 037 032 001 00
212400 2244N 07729W 9499 00460 0005 +246 +218 184038 038 035 000 00
212430 2243N 07728W 9498 00461 0006 +244 +217 183037 038 036 000 00
212500 2241N 07727W 9500 00460 0007 +245 +219 186036 037 032 001 00
212530 2240N 07726W 9499 00462 0008 +245 +220 187036 036 034 000 00
212600 2239N 07725W 9498 00462 0009 +244 +220 188036 036 034 001 00
212630 2238N 07724W 9498 00462 0008 +245 +220 190036 037 033 000 00

#2929 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:46 pm

URNT15 KWBC 312136
NOAA3 0916A NOEL HDOB 08 20071031
212700 2237N 07723W 9498 00463 0008 +241 +223 186035 036 032 001 00
212730 2235N 07722W 9496 00464 0009 +242 +223 186037 038 031 000 00
212800 2234N 07720W 9495 00467 0009 +242 +226 184040 041 028 000 00
212830 2233N 07719W 9499 00464 0011 +236 +232 181036 038 031 004 00
212900 2232N 07718W 9500 00464 0013 +238 +228 181042 043 034 000 00
212930 2230N 07717W 9497 00468 0015 +232 +230 178042 044 036 002 00
213000 2229N 07716W 9497 00468 0015 +229 +228 179045 049 037 001 00
213030 2228N 07715W 9497 00468 0016 +228 +222 178050 050 036 000 00
213100 2227N 07714W 9497 00468 0015 +229 +219 176049 051 039 005 00
213130 2225N 07713W 9499 00467 0016 +228 +223 177046 049 039 006 00
213200 2224N 07712W 9497 00470 0018 +228 +226 176045 048 037 008 00
213230 2223N 07711W 9498 00469 0019 +228 +225 177045 046 038 010 00
213300 2222N 07710W 9500 00468 0019 +224 +223 180040 042 043 012 00
213330 2221N 07709W 9496 00472 0018 +227 +226 176043 045 047 019 00
213400 2219N 07708W 9499 00468 0018 +225 +225 175042 043 046 021 00
213430 2218N 07707W 9496 00471 0019 +226 +224 174044 046 048 021 00
213500 2217N 07705W 9499 00469 0019 +230 +221 178045 046 042 019 00
213530 2216N 07704W 9499 00470 0020 +228 +224 181044 045 043 016 00
213600 2215N 07703W 9498 00471 0020 +231 +222 182048 049 043 014 00
213630 2213N 07702W 9496 00474 0021 +232 +217 182046 048 043 011 00

51 kt FL, 48 kt SFMR

#2930 Postby **HenkL** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:47 pm

URNT15 KWBC 312136
NOAA3 0916A NOEL HDOB 08 20071031
212700 2237N 07723W 9498 00463 0008 +241 +223 186035 036 032 001 00
212730 2235N 07722W 9496 00464 0009 +242 +223 186037 038 031 000 00
212800 2234N 07720W 9495 00467 0009 +242 +226 184040 041 028 000 00
212830 2233N 07719W 9499 00464 0011 +236 +232 181036 038 031 004 00
212900 2232N 07718W 9500 00464 0013 +238 +228 181042 043 034 000 00
212930 2230N 07717W 9497 00468 0015 +232 +230 178042 044 036 002 00
213000 2229N 07716W 9497 00468 0015 +229 +228 179045 049 037 001 00
213030 2228N 07715W 9497 00468 0016 +228 +222 178050 050 036 000 00
213100 2227N 07714W 9497 00468 0015 +229 +219 176049 051 039 005 00
213130 2225N 07713W 9499 00467 0016 +228 +223 177046 049 039 006 00
213200 2224N 07712W 9497 00470 0018 +228 +226 176045 048 037 008 00
213230 2223N 07711W 9498 00469 0019 +228 +225 177045 046 038 010 00
213300 2222N 07710W 9500 00468 0019 +224 +223 180040 042 043 012 00
213330 2221N 07709W 9496 00472 0018 +227 +226 176043 045 047 019 00
213400 2219N 07708W 9499 00468 0018 +225 +225 175042 043 046 021 00
213430 2218N 07707W 9496 00471 0019 +226 +224 174044 046 048 021 00
213500 2217N 07705W 9499 00469 0019 +230 +221 178045 046 042 019 00
213530 2216N 07704W 9499 00470 0020 +228 +224 181044 045 043 016 00
213600 2215N 07703W 9498 00471 0020 +231 +222 182048 049 043 014 00
213630 2213N 07702W 9496 00474 0021 +232 +217 182046 048 043 011 00

Max flight level wind: 51 kt
Max SFMR wind: 48 kt

bocadude86 · #2931 Postby **bocadude86** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:49 pm

Center looks to be under the convection now.. though system doesnt appear to be moving to the NE

#2932 Postby **TampaFl** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:53 pm

5:00pm Location - Map Courtesy of Boat USA

#2933 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:53 pm

URNT15 KWBC 312146
NOAA3 0916A NOEL HDOB 09 20071031
213700 2212N 07701W 9499 00472 0021 +233 +218 182046 048 041 003 00
213730 2211N 07700W 9497 00472 0021 +232 +218 181046 047 040 002 00
213800 2210N 07659W 9499 00471 0020 +236 +214 183046 046 040 003 00
213830 2209N 07657W 9495 00474 0020 +237 +209 184048 049 999 999 03
213900 2210N 07656W 9497 00473 0020 +240 +210 187045 046 999 999 03
213930 2212N 07656W 9498 00471 0018 +245 +210 183043 044 034 003 03
214000 2214N 07657W 9499 00467 0016 +241 +212 180045 046 036 003 00
214030 2215N 07659W 9499 00469 0018 +237 +213 181047 048 038 005 00
214100 2217N 07701W 9499 00469 0018 +234 +216 181045 048 039 007 00
214130 2218N 07702W 9499 00470 0019 +227 +222 180048 050 044 015 00
214200 2220N 07704W 9501 00467 0019 +224 +222 178049 051 050 024 00
214230 2221N 07705W 9496 00468 0016 +223 +222 175048 052 051 021 00
214300 2223N 07707W 9496 00469 0016 +227 +225 176046 047 043 015 00
214330 2224N 07708W 9498 00468 0017 +225 +225 175045 047 043 018 00
214400 2226N 07710W 9499 00464 0014 +227 +226 170045 046 047 016 00
214430 2227N 07712W 9497 00467 0014 +227 +225 173047 050 037 009 00
214500 2229N 07713W 9500 00463 0013 +230 +228 173047 049 037 005 00
214530 2230N 07715W 9497 00464 0012 +229 +225 173048 050 033 000 00
214600 2232N 07717W 9498 00461 0009 +233 +218 171052 053 034 000 00
214630 2233N 07718W 9498 00462 0007 +236 +213 172050 051 033 000 00

53 kt FL, 51 kt SFMR

#2934 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:55 pm

Wow! If that map is true, then the wind field is really expanding!

Tropics Guy · #2935 Postby **Tropics Guy** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:56 pm

Noel may have finished his mini loop and the convection has caught up with the LLC. Overall movement appears stationary to drifting north. The convection buildup is not good news for the bahamas as Noel could strengthen before hitting the shear zone.

bocadude86 · #2936 Postby **bocadude86** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:57 pm

Ts winds are gonna be close to s fla coast by the looks of that maps

#2937 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:57 pm

Bgator wrote:Max mayfield just said the reason it has stalled is there is a battle. The low level steering wants to bring it to the west, but the mid to upper level is trying to stear it NE.
Can any pros chime in on this?

That is true. Mid to upper-level winds are from the SW-W, and those winds will only increase with time along the SE U.S. Coast. So the only way the center can track much to the west is if it's exposed - free of convection. If the low-level steering is too strong, then the LLC moves off to the west and dissipates and a new center forms beneath the convection, as the NHC mentioned they saw signs of with the last recon.

I keep saying, forget the center, don't worry about it. Follow the deep convection, as that's where all of Noel's stronger winds/squalls are. Convection is not moving west, it's building northeast. The center will follow the convection, not the other way around.

Thunder44 · #2938 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:58 pm

53kt FL wind and 51kt SFMR maxes so far in the East Quad.

LeeJet · #2939 Postby **LeeJet** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:58 pm

TampaFl wrote:5:00pm Location - Map Courtesy of Boat USA

How accurate is this?

#2940 Postby **HenkL** » Wed Oct 31, 2007 5:00 pm

Current flight so far. Markers 1 - 4 are the fix positions from earlier missions today.

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