Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[deltadog03]

Outflow has Dramatically improved on western quad....

[artist]

more squalls and wind here.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 312336
NOAA3 0916A NOEL HDOB 20 20071031
232700 2335N 07903W 9486 00474 0011 +225 +218 056043 044 032 000 00
232730 2336N 07905W 9485 00476 0012 +226 +217 055044 044 031 000 00
232800 2337N 07906W 9498 00465 0013 +228 +216 057044 045 032 000 00
232830 2339N 07908W 9507 00456 0014 +229 +215 059045 045 032 000 00
232900 2340N 07909W 9505 00461 0016 +229 +216 057044 046 032 000 00
232930 2342N 07911W 9508 00461 0019 +230 +214 057044 045 032 000 00
233000 2343N 07912W 9506 00463 0021 +229 +214 056044 044 031 000 00
233030 2344N 07914W 9506 00465 0022 +232 +207 056044 045 033 001 00
233100 2346N 07915W 9506 00466 0023 +233 +207 056042 044 032 000 00
233130 2347N 07917W 9505 00467 0024 +231 +210 054041 042 029 000 00
233200 2349N 07918W 9507 00467 0025 +234 +206 053041 042 028 000 00
233230 2350N 07919W 9506 00468 0025 +233 +211 053039 039 030 000 00
233300 2351N 07921W 9509 00467 0026 +232 +214 054037 038 029 000 00
233330 2353N 07922W 9508 00467 0026 +231 +216 056038 038 029 000 00
233400 2354N 07924W 9506 00469 0027 +231 +216 056037 038 028 000 00
233430 2356N 07925W 9507 00469 0028 +229 +220 055037 038 029 001 00
233500 2357N 07927W 9506 00472 0030 +229 +220 057037 038 029 001 00
233530 2358N 07928W 9507 00472 0031 +230 +217 058039 040 030 000 00
233600 2400N 07930W 9513 00468 0032 +230 +214 061039 041 030 000 00
233630 2401N 07931W 9538 00447 0034 +231 +219 059037 040 029 000 00

46 kt FL

[Blown Away]

Have not looked at the loop since 3:30pm, did the slight W drift begin again, sure does look like it on the visible. looks like convection is building on the N side of the circulation.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[destruction92]

Woah!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Whoa, what? Convection decreasing near the center and firing off to the northeast?

Center relocation?

center relocating to the east, south, west, or north of the 5 PM position?

Can you be more specific than just posing a question? Sorry, but I am confused as heck about all this talk about where the center is...everybody keeps saying that the center is relocating, but avoid giving coordinates or any specifics.

[cpdaman]

i see convection increasing to the north east and inching closer to the center if not over it

is this storm likely to have a center re-formation? shear is supposedly weakening temporarily will this help allow the LLC to be pulled under the convection?

and destruction the poster probably thought it was obvious that the center relocation would be under the intense convection to the ne of the 5pm position

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 312352
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
800 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...NOEL A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO
JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 22.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...260 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

NOEL HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWARD FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND A
GENERAL SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N...78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 312346
NOAA3 0916A NOEL HDOB 21 20071031
233700 2403N 07932W 9537 00449 0034 +231 +217 060037 039 029 000 00
233730 2405N 07933W 9532 00451 0035 +228 +222 058036 037 030 000 00
233800 2406N 07934W 9533 00451 0035 +229 +222 059035 037 030 000 00
233830 2408N 07934W 9535 00450 0036 +229 +219 062036 036 030 000 00
233900 2410N 07935W 9535 00452 0037 +230 +218 064037 038 030 000 00
233930 2412N 07936W 9532 00455 0038 +229 +217 061037 038 029 000 00
234000 2413N 07936W 9536 00453 0039 +231 +213 063040 041 031 001 00
234030 2415N 07937W 9535 00455 0040 +228 +219 062038 040 032 000 00
234100 2417N 07938W 9535 00455 0041 +227 +218 063038 040 032 000 00
234130 2419N 07938W 9535 00455 0042 +227 +216 065039 040 033 000 00
234200 2420N 07939W 9534 00457 0043 +228 +214 066041 042 031 000 00
234230 2422N 07940W 9533 00460 0045 +228 +217 065039 040 030 001 00
234300 2424N 07940W 9530 00463 0047 +227 +218 063038 040 030 001 00
234330 2426N 07941W 9536 00460 0048 +228 +215 065041 042 032 000 00
234400 2427N 07942W 9533 00464 0050 +228 +218 065040 041 031 000 00
234430 2429N 07942W 9533 00464 0049 +230 +215 062039 042 030 000 00
234500 2431N 07943W 9538 00460 0050 +230 +214 063040 041 034 000 00
234530 2433N 07944W 9530 00470 0052 +229 +212 061041 043 034 000 00
234600 2434N 07944W 9533 00468 0054 +231 +208 061040 041 033 000 00
234630 2436N 07945W 9532 00469 0054 +231 +210 060041 042 032 000 00

[cycloneye]

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 22.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...260 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

NOEL HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWARD FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND A
GENERAL SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

[Evil Jeremy]

Drifting northward? It really has not been drifting in any specific direction.

[umguy1]

I was thinking the same thing.

[CrazyC83]

He is just moving all over the place not knowing what the next move will be...

[cpdaman]

i have two question's maybe anyone can answer them and i'm sure others have similiar concerns

1. i heard on twc that conditions (shear in particular) was supposed to relax temporarily tonite could this relaxing shear change the steering flow for this storm even temporarily?

2. what are the odd's of a center re-location tonite?

[gatorcane]

you are all now witnessing the POWER of the Gulf stream and the FL straits.....

many storms have developed rapidly in this area of the Atlantic and has created absolute monsters in the past....

Looks like Noel is no exception but thankfully looks like it should spare Florida...although the death toll keeps rising across elsewhere...

Noel will be retired folks...

[CrazyC83]

URNT12 KWBC 312333
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/2309Z
B. 22 DEG 53 MIN N
78 DEG 29 MIN W
C. 925 MB 653 M
D. 43 KT
E. 294 DEG 77 NM
F. 038 DEG 42 KT
G. 283 DEG 39 NM
H. 996 MB
I. 23 C/521 M
J. 25 C/567 M
K. 23 C/27 C
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 1345/1
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA3 0916A NOEL OB 06 AL162007
MAX FL WIND 42 KT W QUAD 2258Z
MAX SFC WINDS FROM SFMR
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1500 FT

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 312356
NOAA3 0916A NOEL HDOB 22 20071031
234700 2438N 07946W 9534 00468 0054 +232 +209 059041 042 033 001 00
234730 2440N 07946W 9534 00468 0055 +233 +199 065041 043 033 002 00
234800 2441N 07947W 9534 00469 0056 +230 +215 065038 039 031 001 00
234830 2443N 07948W 9532 00471 0057 +230 +216 062039 043 033 002 00
234900 2445N 07948W 9532 00473 0058 +231 +214 058038 039 030 001 00
234930 2447N 07949W 9534 00471 0058 +234 +209 062040 042 034 000 00
235000 2449N 07949W 9535 00471 0059 +234 +203 063042 043 034 000 00
235030 2450N 07950W 9534 00473 0060 +234 +209 065039 041 033 001 00
235100 2452N 07951W 9536 00473 0061 +229 +218 062038 041 035 001 00
235130 2454N 07951W 9532 00475 0061 +230 +221 055036 038 032 001 00
235200 2456N 07952W 9558 00452 0062 +233 +215 061039 040 036 000 00
235230 2457N 07952W 9558 00455 0064 +234 +214 064038 040 032 000 00
235300 2459N 07953W 9557 00456 0064 +233 +216 063036 038 031 000 00
235330 2501N 07953W 9559 00454 0065 +234 +212 066037 038 031 000 00
235400 2503N 07954W 9558 00456 0065 +233 +213 065036 037 031 000 00
235430 2504N 07955W 9557 00457 0066 +232 +214 065036 038 031 001 00
235500 2506N 07955W 9556 00460 0067 +232 +212 064036 037 030 001 00
235530 2508N 07956W 9560 00458 0070 +233 +211 064035 036 032 000 00
235600 2510N 07957W 9555 00462 0070 +234 +212 064035 036 031 000 00
235630 2512N 07957W 9558 00460 0071 +234 +211 065035 036 031 000 00

[CrazyC83]

Recon found hints of an eyewall forming...

[CrazyC83]

you are all now witnessing the POWER of the Gulf stream and the FL straits.....

many storms have developed rapidly in this area of the Atlantic and has created absolute monsters in the past....

Looks like Noel is no exception but thankfully looks like it should spare Florida...although the death toll keeps rising across elsewhere...

Noel will be retired folks...

I don't know about retired; Gordon killed over 1,000 in Haiti and wasn't retired...

[Evil Jeremy]

Who here thinks TS Warning for FLorida at 11PM tonight?

[tgenius]

Jeremy, I don't think so.. the 8pm advisory is about .4 N and .3 E of 5pm, if that was a center relocate, then perhaps, but if not, its the NE its expected.. now my question becomes... with the Black on IR, if it does bomb a bit to Cat1, wouldn't that make it stronger against the high?