Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cpdaman]

what is the defintion of Rapid Intensification anyway, what are the criteria?

also that 2.5/2.5 reading lists the center at 78.9 west when the latest plane found the center at 78.5

[djones65]

I have read repeatedly by many posters on this board how Noel "is defying the forecasts and refuses to turn north," etc... However, as stated by the NHC repeatedly yesterday, they were considering tropical storm watches for Southeast FL throughout the day and evening last night. Even Derek reported at one point he understood that the NWS forecasters at Miami were in disagreement with the watches recommended by the NHC forecasters as the reason they were not issued earlier. As it has been explained innumerable times by many on this board including pro mets... the NWS forecasters believed the advisories for high winds and gale warnings for the offshore waters were adequate to cover the strong winds over southern Florida experienced the past 48 hours (from the strong or tight pressure gradient between the ridge to the north and Noel to the southeast). The ridge is weakening and thus the strong winds have diminished slightly over the Florida peninsula. The forecast track for Noel is still extremely good from the NHC! I am pasting the reconnaissance tasking requested for Noel at 11 a.m ET on Tuesday, 30 October for today (Halloween). If you look at the forecast center positions you will see how close the NHC was to the positioning of Noel!!

The recon tasks scheduled for this afternoon at 15Z and 18Z was 22.8 and 78.7. The actual coordinates of Noel were 22.6 and 78.8. That's pretty darn close considering the NHC was forecasting 24 hours in advance. So I am still at a loss for why there is so much criticism and concern regarding whether the NHC is adequately forecasting this storm! Yes, it is a close call to south Florida. I understand that, and 24 hour errors on position is still approximately 45 miles or so, but thus far NHC and the rest of the pro mets have been spot on!! Noel will come close to south Florida as forecast, but a landfall is extremely unlikely. Since the ridge north of Noel and over the southeast US is weakening the strong northerly winds over FL will decrease as well. Yesterday, Miami recorded tropical storm force winds for crying out loud!!!! That would be fantastic for a tropical cyclone enthusiast like myself, but so many are crying foul because there was no official tropical storm advisory which baffles me. Enjoy the strong winds you received. Go out and play in them like I would if I were there, but please let's not keep overhyping the situation! Noel will likely intensify a little bit more as it moves northward into the Bahamas so many tropical cyclone fans still have another 24 hours to watch and awe. But the NhC has done a fantastic job the past 24 hours. Here is their reconnaissance requests from yesterday, 24 hours in advance... You will see that their 24 hour forecast position was only off by .2 latitude and .1 longitude. What is that? 18 miles off? Not too bad for a 24 hour forecast, eh???

NOUS42 KNHC 301500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 30 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z OCTOBER TO 01/1100Z NOVEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-155

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM NOEL
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72
A. 31/1500,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0816A NOEL
C. 31/1115Z
D. 22.8N 78.7W
E. 31/1400Z TO 31/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
A. 31/2100, 01/0000Z
B. NOAA3 0916A NOEL
C. 31/1900Z
D. 23.6N 78.7W
E 31/2030Z TO 01/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 70
A. 01/0300, 0600, 0900Z
B. AFXXX 1016A NOEL
C. 01/2345Z
D. 25.6N 78.0W
E. 01/0200Z TO 01/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 01/1200Z IF SYSTEM STILL A THREAT.

[MiamiensisWx]

I have read repeatedly by many posters on this board how Noel "is defying the forecasts and refuses to turn north," etc... However, as stated by the NHC repeatedly yesterday, they were considering tropical storm watches for Southeast FL throughout the day and evening last night. Even Derek reported at one point he understood that the NWS forecasters at Miami were in disagreement with the watches recommended by the NHC forecasters as the reason they were not issued earlier. As it has been explained innumerable times by many on this board including pro mets... the NWS forecasters believed the advisories for high winds and gale warnings for the offshore waters were adequate to cover the strong winds over southern Florida experienced the past 48 hours (from the strong or tight pressure gradient between the ridge to the north and Noel to the southeast). The ridge is weakening and thus the strong winds have diminished slightly over the Florida peninsula. The forecast track for Noel is still extremely good from the NHC! I am pasting the reconnaissance tasking requested for Noel at 11 a.m ET on Tuesday, 30 October for today (Halloween). If you look at the forecast center positions you will see how close the NHC was to the positioning of Noel!!

The recon tasks scheduled for this afternoon at 15Z and 18Z was 22.8 and 78.7. The actual coordinates of Noel were 22.6 and 78.8. That's pretty darn close considering the NHC was forecasting 24 hours in advance. So I am still at a loss for why there is so much criticism and concern regarding whether the NHC is adequately forecasting this storm! Yes, it is a close call to south Florida. I understand that, and 24 hour errors on position is still approximately 45 miles or so, but thus far NHC and the rest of the pro mets have been spot on!! Noel will come close to south Florida as forecast, but a landfall is extremely unlikely. Since the ridge north of Noel and over the southeast US is weakening the strong northerly winds over FL will decrease as well. Yesterday, Miami recorded tropical storm force winds for crying out loud!!!! That would be fantastic for a tropical cyclone enthusiast like myself, but so many are crying foul because there was no official tropical storm advisory which baffles me. Enjoy the strong winds you received. Go out and play in them like I would if I were there, but please let's not keep overhyping the situation! Noel will likely intensify a little bit more as it moves northward into the Bahamas so many tropical cyclone fans still have another 24 hours to watch and awe. But the NhC has done a fantastic job the past 24 hours. Here is their reconnaissance requests from yesterday, 24 hours in advance... You will see that their 24 hour forecast position was only off by .2 latitude and .1 longitude. What is that? 18 miles off? Not too bad for a 24 hour forecast, eh???

NOUS42 KNHC 301500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 30 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z OCTOBER TO 01/1100Z NOVEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-155

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM NOEL
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72
A. 31/1500,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0816A NOEL
C. 31/1115Z
D. 22.8N 78.7W
E. 31/1400Z TO 31/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
A. 31/2100, 01/0000Z
B. NOAA3 0916A NOEL
C. 31/1900Z
D. 23.6N 78.7W
E 31/2030Z TO 01/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 70
A. 01/0300, 0600, 0900Z
B. AFXXX 1016A NOEL
C. 01/2345Z
D. 25.6N 78.0W
E. 01/0200Z TO 01/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 01/1200Z IF SYSTEM STILL A THREAT.

GREAT POST!!!

[bocadude86]

31/2345 UTC 23.0N 78.9W T2.5/2.5 NOEL -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Umm maybe it is moving to the NW? went from 78.5 to 78.9

[cpdaman]

yes i noticed the winds dropping off a bit tonite due to the ridge weakening and retreating, ironic considering NOEL is finally getting a chance to do it's thing

i guess we are lucky the ridge is not building now, otherwise the gradient would be causing storm conditions

[cpdaman]

31/2345 UTC 23.0N 78.9W T2.5/2.5 NOEL -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Umm maybe it is moving to the NW? went from 78.5 to 78.9

i believe they made an error unless they have an independant plane flying

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010037
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 09 20071101
002530 2733N 08413W 3763 07981 0370 -225 -285 262029 029 010 006 00
002600 2732N 08410W 3763 07983 0370 -225 -279 263028 028 009 006 00
002630 2731N 08408W 3765 07978 0370 -225 -279 262027 028 011 006 00
002700 2730N 08405W 3763 07984 0371 -228 -275 262027 027 005 006 00
002730 2729N 08403W 3759 07992 0372 -230 -280 262027 028 004 007 00
002800 2728N 08400W 3763 07983 0372 -227 -281 261027 027 001 007 00
002830 2727N 08358W 3759 07990 0371 -228 -284 263027 028 000 007 00
002900 2726N 08355W 3752 08005 0372 -230 -295 264027 028 000 007 00
002930 2725N 08353W 3756 07996 0374 -230 -290 264027 028 000 007 00
003000 2724N 08350W 3768 07975 0372 -225 -303 265029 030 000 007 00
003030 2723N 08348W 3756 08000 0373 -223 -353 259032 033 000 007 00
003100 2721N 08345W 3763 07989 0375 -225 -315 254030 032 000 007 00
003130 2720N 08343W 3758 07995 0375 -225 -319 253029 030 000 007 00
003200 2719N 08340W 3763 07987 0375 -222 -324 255030 030 001 006 00
003230 2719N 08338W 3760 07993 0376 -222 -332 254030 030 000 007 00
003300 2717N 08335W 3760 07994 0376 -220 -351 254031 031 000 007 00
003330 2716N 08333W 3768 07976 0375 -220 -375 253032 033 000 007 00
003400 2715N 08330W 3765 07983 0375 -220 -376 253033 033 000 007 00
003430 2714N 08328W 3754 08005 0376 -223 -380 256034 034 000 007 00
003500 2713N 08325W 3764 07985 0376 -220 -389 256033 034 000 007 00
$$
;

[Derek Ortt]

the Dvorak numbers are satellite estimates

[wxman57]

Just looking at the latest surface plot, the obs wouldn't alert you to a tropical storm in the area. But the obs to the north and northeast are 150 miles from the center. No ships in the area of squalls northeast of the center (red crosshairs). Winds across Florida are down from earlier today.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 010033
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0033 UTC THU NOV 1 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NOEL (AL162007) 20071101 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071101 0000 071101 1200 071102 0000 071102 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.9N 78.5W 24.0N 79.3W 24.4N 79.3W 24.4N 78.5W
BAMD 22.9N 78.5W 24.2N 78.2W 25.9N 76.6W 28.2N 73.4W
BAMM 22.9N 78.5W 24.0N 78.5W 25.2N 77.4W 26.4N 75.2W
LBAR 22.9N 78.5W 23.9N 78.5W 25.5N 77.8W 27.2N 76.7W
SHIP 50KTS 56KTS 62KTS 65KTS
DSHP 50KTS 56KTS 62KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071103 0000 071104 0000 071105 0000 071106 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.3N 77.2W 24.5N 75.5W 25.7N 72.7W 25.3N 72.5W
BAMD 31.6N 68.9W 41.2N 59.9W 52.5N 46.6W 62.2N 23.7W
BAMM 28.2N 71.3W 35.2N 61.7W 42.9N 50.3W 50.9N 41.8W
LBAR 29.5N 74.7W 35.1N 68.1W 40.5N 52.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 66KTS 73KTS 63KTS 48KTS
DSHP 66KTS 73KTS 48KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.9N LONCUR = 78.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 22.5N LONM12 = 78.3W DIRM12 = 321DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 21.2N LONM24 = 77.9W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 100NM

[fci]

Who here thinks TS Warning for FLorida at 11PM tonight?

Vote me a "no" on this one.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010047
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 10 20071101
003530 2712N 08323W 3768 07979 0376 -219 -379 254033 033 005 006 00
003600 2711N 08320W 3764 07985 0376 -219 -357 253033 033 000 007 00
003630 2710N 08317W 3758 08000 0377 -220 -373 252032 033 000 007 03
003700 2709N 08315W 3755 08004 0378 -220 -345 251032 032 000 007 00
003730 2708N 08312W 3760 07994 0377 -220 -324 251033 034 000 007 00
003800 2707N 08310W 3759 07996 0377 -220 -364 255034 034 000 007 00
003830 2706N 08307W 3759 07997 0378 -220 -444 255033 034 000 007 00
003900 2705N 08305W 3751 08013 0378 -220 -462 254033 033 000 007 00
003930 2704N 08302W 3752 08012 0380 -220 -439 249033 034 000 007 00
004000 2703N 08300W 3758 08002 0380 -219 -379 246033 033 000 007 00
004030 2702N 08257W 3759 07997 0379 -217 -372 248034 034 000 007 00
004100 2701N 08255W 3760 07996 0380 -219 -374 249033 033 000 007 00
004130 2700N 08252W 3760 08001 0382 -215 -383 248032 032 000 007 00
004200 2659N 08250W 3758 08007 0384 -218 -383 247031 031 000 007 00
004230 2658N 08248W 3766 07995 0386 -220 -344 247028 030 000 007 00
004300 2657N 08245W 3760 08005 0387 -217 -346 246029 030 000 007 00
004330 2656N 08243W 3757 08013 0390 -215 -366 246030 031 000 007 00
004400 2655N 08240W 3760 08007 0390 -215 -319 245027 028 000 007 00
004430 2654N 08238W 3754 08019 0389 -215 -321 248026 027 000 007 00
004500 2653N 08235W 3754 08020 0391 -215 -323 251027 027 000 007 00
$$
;

[cpdaman]

warning , NO

the winds are down tonite and the storm is crawling to the N.

watch yes.

[jlauderdal]

Who here thinks TS Warning for FLorida at 11PM tonight?

Vote me a "no" on this one.

no way, it was good trick or treating this year, dewpoints were high but breeze was great, no rain, we saw stars

[bocadude86]

well if the windfield expands then a warning would be likely

[wzrgirl1]

the windfield has expanded already i think....no warning at 11....it's only going 2 mph...it would have only moved 6 miles since the last advisory lol

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010057
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 11 20071101
004530 2651N 08233W 3754 08023 0392 -215 -335 250028 028 000 007 00
004600 2650N 08230W 3759 08012 0392 -212 -346 253027 027 000 007 03
004630 2649N 08228W 3767 07995 0391 -209 -359 257027 027 000 007 03
004700 2647N 08226W 3754 08018 0390 -210 -368 259027 027 000 007 00
004730 2646N 08225W 3750 08026 0390 -210 -380 258027 027 000 007 00
004800 2644N 08223W 3754 08018 0390 -210 -391 258026 027 000 006 00
004830 2642N 08221W 3756 08014 0389 -207 -399 260027 027 000 007 00
004900 2640N 08220W 3763 08001 0389 -205 -451 262026 026 000 007 00
004930 2638N 08218W 3766 07997 0389 -205 -472 262025 026 006 006 00
005000 2636N 08216W 3756 08014 0390 -200 -490 262025 025 005 006 00
005030 2635N 08214W 3750 08030 0392 -202 -503 264025 026 034 002 00
005100 2633N 08213W 3755 08020 0394 -203 -495 265025 025 040 006 00
005130 2631N 08211W 3756 08018 0393 -204 -495 266025 025 066 004 03
005200 2629N 08209W 3751 08027 0394 -204 -456 269026 027 103 003 00
005230 2627N 08207W 3763 08006 0395 -204 -463 271028 028 129 007 03
005300 2625N 08206W 3770 07993 0393 -205 -393 271026 027 084 000 03
005330 2624N 08204W 3755 08020 0395 -205 -356 268025 026 059 000 00
005400 2622N 08202W 3762 08009 0394 -205 -347 268024 025 005 006 00
005430 2620N 08200W 3762 08012 0396 -205 -353 269024 024 008 006 00
005500 2618N 08159W 3758 08019 0396 -205 -347 270024 024 000 007 00
$$

[Evil Jeremy]

As the storm expands, shouldnt the windfield?

[deltadog03]

hurricane again..via, bams...

[brunota2003]

I think if they were to issue a warning, and people only received 25 to 35 mph sustained winds, they'd complain that the warning was unneeded and just used to hype things up. So, for the NHC, it is a lose lose situation.