Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010057
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 11 20071101
004530 2651N 08233W 3754 08023 0392 -215 -335 250028 028 000 007 00
004600 2650N 08230W 3759 08012 0392 -212 -346 253027 027 000 007 03
004630 2649N 08228W 3767 07995 0391 -209 -359 257027 027 000 007 03
004700 2647N 08226W 3754 08018 0390 -210 -368 259027 027 000 007 00
004730 2646N 08225W 3750 08026 0390 -210 -380 258027 027 000 007 00
004800 2644N 08223W 3754 08018 0390 -210 -391 258026 027 000 006 00
004830 2642N 08221W 3756 08014 0389 -207 -399 260027 027 000 007 00
004900 2640N 08220W 3763 08001 0389 -205 -451 262026 026 000 007 00
004930 2638N 08218W 3766 07997 0389 -205 -472 262025 026 006 006 00
005000 2636N 08216W 3756 08014 0390 -200 -490 262025 025 005 006 00
005030 2635N 08214W 3750 08030 0392 -202 -503 264025 026 034 002 00
005100 2633N 08213W 3755 08020 0394 -203 -495 265025 025 040 006 00
005130 2631N 08211W 3756 08018 0393 -204 -495 266025 025 066 004 03
005200 2629N 08209W 3751 08027 0394 -204 -456 269026 027 103 003 00
005230 2627N 08207W 3763 08006 0395 -204 -463 271028 028 129 007 03
005300 2625N 08206W 3770 07993 0393 -205 -393 271026 027 084 000 03
005330 2624N 08204W 3755 08020 0395 -205 -356 268025 026 059 000 00
005400 2622N 08202W 3762 08009 0394 -205 -347 268024 025 005 006 00
005430 2620N 08200W 3762 08012 0396 -205 -353 269024 024 008 006 00
005500 2618N 08159W 3758 08019 0396 -205 -347 270024 024 000 007 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010107
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 12 20071101
005530 2616N 08157W 3762 08010 0396 -205 -339 270024 024 002 006 00
005600 2614N 08155W 3758 08019 0396 -205 -344 270024 024 001 007 00
005630 2613N 08154W 3760 08013 0395 -206 -354 270024 025 000 007 00
005700 2611N 08152W 3763 08009 0396 -212 -362 270026 027 001 006 00
005730 2609N 08150W 3759 08015 0396 -210 -368 272026 026 050 000 00
005800 2607N 08148W 3759 08016 0397 -212 -361 273026 027 090 000 03
005830 2605N 08147W 3759 08016 0397 -215 -344 273027 027 999 999 03
005900 2603N 08145W 3759 08016 0397 -215 -338 273028 028 999 999 03
005930 2601N 08143W 3762 08013 0398 -214 -332 274028 028 999 999 03
010000 2600N 08141W 3752 08028 0397 -210 -353 277027 027 999 999 03
010030 2558N 08140W 3755 08026 0400 -210 -367 280028 028 999 999 03
010100 2556N 08138W 3758 08021 0400 -214 -335 277027 027 087 000 03
010130 2554N 08136W 3758 08020 0399 -215 -337 278027 028 999 999 03
010200 2552N 08134W 3757 08025 0402 -214 -334 280028 028 089 000 00
010230 2550N 08133W 3811 07918 0396 -204 -349 280025 026 062 001 00
010300 2548N 08131W 3772 07992 0397 -210 -350 281027 027 023 003 00
010330 2547N 08129W 3766 08008 0399 -210 -340 280028 028 000 007 00
010400 2545N 08127W 3760 08020 0402 -210 -331 280027 027 000 007 00
010430 2543N 08126W 3754 08031 0403 -210 -334 280027 027 000 006 00
010500 2541N 08124W 3758 08023 0402 -210 -339 279027 027 000 007 00
$$
;

[bocadude86]

If it ramps up to hurricane status they may issue a warning .. I think a hurricane watch should have been issued for the NW Bahamas though

[Derek Ortt]

WOCN31 CWHX 010000
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
WEDNESDAY 31 OCTOBER 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

... NOEL NOW NORTH OF CUBA BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.9 N AND LONGITUDE 78.9 W... ABOUT 65 NAUTICAL MILES OR 125 KM
NORTH OF CIEGO AVILA CUBA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
50 KNOTS... 93 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 994 MB. NOEL IS
MOVING NORTH AT 4 KNOTS... 7 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
OCT 31 9.00 PM 22.9N 78.9W 994 50 93
NOV 01 9.00 AM 24.5N 78.4W 992 55 102
NOV 01 9.00 PM 26.7N 76.8W 990 50 93
NOV 02 9.00 AM 29.9N 73.8W 988 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 02 9.00 PM 33.1N 70.8W 986 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 9.00 AM 36.9N 67.5W 984 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 03 9.00 PM 41.3N 63.8W 980 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 9.00 AM 45.6N 60.0W 977 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 04 9.00 PM 50.5N 56.0W 975 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 9.00 AM 55.5N 52.5W 975 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 05 9.00 PM 60.1N 49.9W 975 60 111 POST-TROPICAL

WE KEEP THE SAME TRACK AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAINTAIN THAT
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL IN DECIDING ITS MOVEMENT IN THE
SUBSEQUENT FEW DAYS. REGARDLESS PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA ARE
LIKELY TO RECEIVE A WET AND WINDY WEEKEND WITH A DEVELOPING STORM
THAT WILL BE APPROACHING. IF NOEL BECOMES INVOLVED WITH THIS SYSTEM
THEN EXPECT THE WEEKEND TO BE WETTER AND WINDIER.

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
WHILE STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON SPECIFIC IMPACTS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT NOVA SCOTIA PEI AND
NEWFOUNDLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK MEANS THAT GALES COULD BE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME WATERS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT ... WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
WE FOLLOW THE NHC ANALYSIS GUIDANCE ISSUED AT 21Z.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THE 12Z MODEL RUNS AND VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY NARROW
ENVELOPE OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS WITH OUR PREVIOUS TRACK IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE PACK... SO WE WILL STAY THE COURSE AND MORE OR LESS
EXTRAPOLATE THE 18Z TRACK FORECAST POSITIONS.

THE FSU CPS DIAGNOSTIC DIAGRAMS ILLUSTRATE SOME DIFFERENCES THAT
REMAIN IN THE MODELS...THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS LOOK MORE LIKE
CLASSICAL TRANSITION WHEREAS CMC GLOBAL BEGINS TRANSITION IN LESS
THAN 24 HOURS BUT BEFORE COMPLETING IT NOV 4 DEVELOPS AN INTENSE
WARM SECLUSION.

CMC AND GFS BOTH HAVE A LOW BELOW 980 MB PASSING NOVA SCOTIA WHEREAS
THE GFDL AND HWRF BOTH HAVE MUCH DEEPER SYSTEMS BELOW 960. NOGAPS
WEAKER WITH A LOW IN THE 980S. ACCORDINGLY WE WILL STICK WITH AN
INTENSITY IN THE 970S UNTIL A CLEAR SINGLE SOLUTION STARTS TO EMERGE
... HOPEFULLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA TOMORROW AND FRIDAY WILL
BE CRITICALLY TIMED WITH LEADING MOISTURE FEEDING NORTHWARD FROM
NOEL OR THE DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A
STRONG DISTINCTION BETWEEN THE RAIN AND NO-RAIN AREAS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND CAPE BRETON COULD RECEIVE
20-40 MM OF RAIN AND WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA NONE. THIS THEN MOVES
THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN POINT HERE IS THAT
THIS WILL BE A SEPARATE EVENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WITH
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND SOME AREAS WILL POSSIBLY SEE TWO
BOUTS OF RAIN BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SUNDAY.

D. MARINE WEATHER
IT IS EXPECTED THAT REGARDLESS OF THE SCENARIOS THAT COULD DEVELOP
ANY SYSTEM REACHING CANADIAN WATERS WILL BE IN SUFFICIENT STAGE
OF TRANSITION OR BAROCLINIC REINTENSIFICATION THAT GALES WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM CENTRE. ACCORDINGLY WE WILL NOT
ISSUE WIND RADII AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF ITS EXPECTED BAROCLINIC
NATURE.

END BOWYER/ROUSSEL

CHC advisory

We probably should start posting these since there is a threat to Canada

[cpdaman]

yes maybe they should have when it was upgraded to 60 mph, since the storm is so close by (bahamas), not to mention that alot of older folks go to bed before 11pm, and they could wake up to a bit of a problem

the recon heading in their now will tell the story and the 11 pm advisory's will be posted accordingly.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010117
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 13 20071101
010530 2539N 08122W 3758 08025 0402 -210 -338 280028 028 000 007 00
010600 2537N 08121W 3760 08020 0402 -210 -347 279028 029 000 007 00
010630 2535N 08119W 3755 08029 0403 -210 -348 279028 028 000 006 00
010700 2533N 08117W 3758 08027 0403 -209 -361 276029 029 000 007 00
010730 2532N 08115W 3760 08020 0402 -209 -370 274028 028 010 005 00
010800 2530N 08114W 3761 08018 0403 -210 -350 273027 028 044 000 00
010830 2528N 08112W 3759 08021 0403 -209 -370 273026 026 056 000 00
010900 2526N 08110W 3751 08038 0404 -212 -358 275026 026 096 000 00
010930 2524N 08108W 3755 08032 0405 -210 -352 276026 026 142 000 03
011000 2522N 08107W 3766 08011 0404 -210 -348 278026 026 142 000 03
011030 2520N 08105W 3760 08022 0404 -210 -347 279025 025 140 000 00
011100 2519N 08103W 3768 08009 0405 -209 -351 281025 026 133 000 03
011130 2517N 08102W 3818 07916 0405 -202 -336 286023 024 095 000 03
011200 2515N 08100W 3937 07688 0393 -183 -303 295018 020 125 000 03
011230 2513N 08059W 4054 07469 0380 -164 -271 301016 016 087 000 03
011300 2511N 08057W 4177 07242 0366 -144 -274 303016 016 999 999 03
011330 2508N 08056W 4304 07013 0352 -123 -283 315013 014 999 999 03
011400 2507N 08055W 4408 06826 0337 -106 -269 329008 009 086 000 00
011430 2505N 08054W 4483 06696 0329 -096 -259 351006 007 023 006 00
011500 2503N 08053W 4605 06494 0319 -079 -265 337005 006 015 006 00
$$
;

Plane decending to operational altitud.

[Category 5]

What a CDO! Every color on every floater is there.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010127
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 14 20071101
011530 2501N 08052W 4735 06274 0303 -066 -260 294009 010 010 008 00
011600 2459N 08050W 4840 06097 0288 -060 -226 309012 013 015 008 00
011630 2457N 08049W 4853 06073 0282 -060 -221 311013 014 001 006 00
011700 2455N 08048W 4916 05983 0285 -057 -200 315014 015 004 006 00
011730 2453N 08047W 5050 05774 0275 -042 -179 329014 015 000 007 00
011800 2451N 08046W 5205 05535 0260 -027 -051 338014 015 000 024 00
011830 2449N 08045W 5365 05296 0245 -009 +999 344015 015 002 007 01
011900 2448N 08044W 5544 05031 9990 +009 +999 354019 021 000 007 01
011930 2446N 08043W 5732 04761 9990 +027 +999 001019 020 002 007 01
012000 2444N 08041W 5908 04512 9990 +040 +999 012020 021 006 007 01
012030 2442N 08040W 6053 04309 0001 +052 +011 022021 022 012 006 00
012100 2440N 08039W 6189 04125 0011 +057 +020 030022 024 010 007 00
012130 2439N 08038W 6327 03943 0016 +067 +015 036025 026 019 006 00
012200 2437N 08037W 6511 03707 0025 +075 +021 038028 029 017 006 00
012230 2435N 08036W 6704 03466 0032 +085 +027 039030 031 017 007 00
012300 2433N 08035W 6892 03235 0035 +095 +036 042030 031 017 007 00
012330 2432N 08034W 7011 03088 0037 +099 +048 047032 032 020 007 00
012400 2430N 08033W 7130 02945 0039 +103 +069 048031 032 022 007 00
012430 2429N 08032W 7287 02767 9990 +114 +999 049033 034 021 007 01
012500 2427N 08031W 7478 02549 9990 +118 +999 049036 037 021 007 01
$$
;
Plane continues the slow decending period to operational altitud.

[Blown Away]

Is there any chance the front misses Noel and leaves him meandering behind?

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010137
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 15 20071101
012530 2425N 08031W 7671 02335 9990 +133 +999 050038 038 024 008 01
012600 2424N 08030W 7940 02046 9990 +149 +999 053038 039 026 008 01
012630 2422N 08029W 8156 01813 0055 +153 +139 052037 038 023 008 00
012700 2421N 08028W 8373 01586 0050 +162 +159 050037 038 022 008 00
012730 2419N 08027W 8422 01531 0043 +166 +157 050037 039 021 008 03
012800 2418N 08026W 8431 01517 0042 +164 +160 050037 038 021 008 00
012830 2417N 08025W 8428 01519 0040 +164 +160 051038 039 022 008 00
012900 2416N 08023W 8410 01537 0038 +165 +159 053038 039 025 008 00
012930 2415N 08022W 8417 01530 0037 +169 +156 052039 039 027 008 00
013000 2414N 08021W 8417 01527 0035 +168 +160 051038 038 028 008 00
013030 2413N 08020W 8422 01524 0034 +169 +159 052037 038 030 009 00
013100 2412N 08018W 8418 01526 0034 +169 +154 054036 037 029 008 00
013130 2410N 08017W 8418 01524 0033 +169 +146 054035 035 029 008 00
013200 2409N 08016W 8424 01517 0031 +170 +145 053035 036 031 008 00
013230 2408N 08015W 8419 01524 0028 +172 +149 053034 036 028 009 00
013300 2407N 08013W 8418 01524 0030 +167 +149 051034 035 024 009 00
013330 2406N 08012W 8421 01519 0029 +168 +155 050037 037 024 009 00
013400 2405N 08011W 8420 01519 0029 +168 +154 049037 038 026 009 00
013430 2404N 08010W 8421 01517 0030 +162 +162 054037 039 027 009 00
013500 2403N 08008W 8418 01520 0029 +162 +162 047036 038 024 009 00
$$
;

[wxman57]

What a CDO! Every color on every floater is there.

That's not a "Central Dense Overcast", though. It's detached from the center. Could see a center re-form under it tomorrow, maybe.

I notice the 00Z models have shifted east a bit, to the east side of Andros Island. May be the start of a trend.

[Windtalker2]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Tell me if I'm looking at this wrong or not. I read posts that say that the LLC is chasing after the convection. It looks to me as if the convection is expending westward through that "brick wall" some wrote about and covering the LLC. I do not see the LLC chashing after it but the reverse. I think the wind field will be expending westward out to the 175 mile like it was earlier before the Cuba connection and more to the west than before especiall if this storm is a cat 1 by 5am.

Could I be wrong?

[Evil Jeremy]

Windtalker, I think you are right. I have also seen the convection expanding west. If this continues, it could prompt a Tropical Storm Warning.

[Category 5]

What a CDO! Every color on every floater is there.

That's not a "Central Dense Overcast", though. It's detached from the center. Could see a center re-form under it tomorrow, maybe.

I notice the 00Z models have shifted east a bit, to the east side of Andros Island. May be the start of a trend.

Oh I didn't know that. Thanks for correcting me.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 010147
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 16 20071101
013530 2401N 08007W 8423 01514 0027 +166 +166 046036 038 025 008 00
013600 2400N 08006W 8419 01517 0029 +161 +161 047037 037 027 009 00
013630 2359N 08005W 8419 01516 0022 +171 +156 048038 038 027 009 00
013700 2358N 08003W 8418 01517 0021 +171 +156 047037 037 028 008 00
013730 2357N 08002W 8422 01511 0019 +175 +155 048037 038 027 008 00
013800 2356N 08001W 8419 01515 0017 +179 +151 050036 037 025 009 00
013830 2355N 08000W 8420 01515 0018 +175 +155 049034 034 025 008 00
013900 2353N 07958W 8420 01513 0019 +172 +160 052033 034 024 008 00
013930 2352N 07957W 8419 01516 0020 +170 +161 049032 032 025 008 00
014000 2351N 07956W 8419 01513 0018 +172 +159 048030 031 025 008 00
014030 2350N 07955W 8422 01510 0017 +174 +159 047031 031 026 008 00
014100 2349N 07953W 8419 01511 0016 +175 +157 045031 031 025 009 00
014130 2348N 07952W 8422 01510 0014 +175 +161 046031 031 024 009 00
014200 2347N 07951W 8419 01510 0016 +175 +162 047032 033 023 009 00
014230 2345N 07950W 8421 01509 0015 +171 +166 046033 034 025 009 00
014300 2344N 07948W 8421 01509 0014 +171 +169 046034 035 024 009 00
014330 2343N 07947W 8420 01509 0013 +173 +167 048038 039 024 009 00
014400 2342N 07946W 8422 01506 0012 +173 +168 047038 039 025 009 00
014430 2341N 07945W 8420 01506 0011 +174 +168 045038 039 025 009 00
014500 2340N 07943W 8423 01504 0009 +175 +167 044038 038 026 009 00
$$
;

39 kt FL

[TheShrimper]

Yeh Windtalker, I was wondering the same thing about that unpenatratable brick wall that was eluded to 24 hours ago. Seems to have turned to jelly, huh?

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 010157
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 17 20071101
014530 2339N 07942W 8422 01505 0009 +172 +171 044037 038 025 009 00
014600 2337N 07941W 8420 01505 0008 +173 +172 044035 035 026 009 00
014630 2336N 07940W 8420 01504 0006 +176 +171 043038 039 025 009 00
014700 2335N 07938W 8419 01504 0005 +175 +169 042040 041 026 009 00
014730 2334N 07937W 8420 01502 0003 +175 +169 041041 042 024 009 00
014800 2333N 07936W 8420 01502 0001 +178 +168 042040 041 026 009 00
014830 2332N 07934W 8419 01503 0003 +174 +171 040038 039 026 009 00
014900 2330N 07933W 8420 01500 0000 +175 +170 040039 039 026 009 00
014930 2329N 07932W 8419 01500 9999 +179 +168 039039 039 026 009 00
015000 2328N 07931W 8421 01498 0001 +174 +162 039038 038 028 009 00
015030 2327N 07929W 8420 01498 9997 +180 +168 038036 036 030 009 00
015100 2326N 07928W 8419 01497 9995 +182 +169 040037 038 028 009 00
015130 2325N 07927W 8419 01495 9995 +179 +173 041037 037 030 009 00
015200 2323N 07926W 8418 01495 9992 +179 +176 041037 037 031 009 00
015230 2322N 07924W 8420 01493 9993 +176 +176 038037 037 031 009 00
015300 2321N 07923W 8421 01492 9992 +176 +176 038037 037 029 009 00
015330 2320N 07922W 8420 01492 9990 +177 +176 038036 037 029 009 00
015400 2319N 07920W 8420 01489 9992 +171 +171 037037 037 029 009 00
015430 2318N 07919W 8420 01489 9992 +171 +171 037036 036 029 009 00
015500 2316N 07918W 8419 01491 9992 +172 +172 035033 035 028 009 00
$$
;

42 kt FL, 31 kt SFMR

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Getting very close to the center,42kts at flight level and 999 mbs.

[Windtalker2]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Tell me if I'm looking at this wrong or not. I read posts that say that the LLC is chasing after the convection. It looks to me as if the convection is expending westward through that "brick wall" some wrote about and covering the LLC. I do not see the LLC chashing after it but the reverse. I think the wind field will be expending westward out to the 175 mile like it was earlier before the Cuba connection and more to the west than before especiall if this storm is a cat 1 by 5am.

Could I be wrong?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Also, here is another view from the Gulf of Mexico. Seems to me like the old front in Northern Florida is dying, what ever was advancing from the plains has stopped advancing and now a west to east flow has resumed across the southern part of the country.
I really do not see the ridge falling apart but holding strong and may be pulling Noel on a more WNW jog over time. Don't forget, a 50-100 mile jog to the west before that recurve we all been hearing about will bring Tropical Storm condictions across S Florida. Can we chance "not" being in a Tropical Storm Warning especially if Noel grows to a Cat 1 and the windfind field expends?

Then again, maybe I don't know what I'm talking about because I'm still learning.