Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 010236
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0300 UTC THU NOV 01 2007

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

[Bgator]

Can someone let me know what this false return on the radar is( i know its not directly related to Noel, but i dont know where to put it):

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

I assume you mean the band of "rain" moving south away from the Keys? I don't know what that is. Only a few low clouds in the area, no rain. Can't see any feature on satellite or in the surface obs. Ghosts?

Yeah its kinda weird.... lol

[Evil Jeremy]

It really doesnt look like the ridge is going to weaken much from the through.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

['CaneFreak]

no one is yelling. If people would start listening to other people sharing their knowledge and learn from there mistakes, and stop making the same mistakes OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER again, then no one would be mad or even the slightest bit frustrated.

Seriously, I have not seen you on much on this thread about Noel...all of a sudden, you are everywhere.

I do think you could tone down your "smarter than thou" attitude...you gotta understand that this is not the tropical analysis forum but the "talkin' tropics" forum.

If you are frustrated by the ignorance here, then you are free to ignore them, don't read them, or just leave the talkin' tropics forum and go to the pro-mets section.

Now, back to Noel....I don't know why you are getting so ramped up, unless you have property in the Bahamas...otherwise the Carolinas are safe as ever. Speaking of Carolinas, I am sure you know your stuff since you have been through more tropical systems than any Floridian...right?

North Carolina is the hurricane capital of the U.S. mainland and has got hit by more hurricanes than Florida by a long shot.

Whatever dude. You and I both werent here in the good ole days when this forum was full of KNOWLEDGEABLE people that knew what was going on and now everyone thinks they know the weather and they really dont.

[gatorcane]

You have to admit, the "wall" protection FL does seem to be breaking down some tonight.

I think the shear has let up alot today and that is allowing the convection to build westward....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[cpdaman]

also the deepest convection has spread westward tonite, (not west of the center) but westward http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

otherwise that is a illusion david copperfield would be envious of

lastly the recon reports seem to indicate a center relocation may be in the process of occuring a bit to the east circa 23.1N and 78/ 77.9 the plane has yet to sample that latitude and longitude so this is just my opinion

their was a pocket of lower pressure SE of the old LLC reported on recon and i'm betting if they sample the area just north i.e 23/ 78 they will find falling pressure

[Blown Away]

I've been watching that stream of high clouds N of Tampa all day, which I think is the stalled front, those clouds have not advanced S of Tampa all day.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[cycloneye]

no one is yelling. If people would start listening to other people sharing their knowledge and learn from there mistakes, and stop making the same mistakes OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER again, then no one would be mad or even the slightest bit frustrated.

Seriously, I have not seen you on much on this thread about Noel...all of a sudden, you are everywhere.

I do think you could tone down your "smarter than thou" attitude...you gotta understand that this is not the tropical analysis forum but the "talkin' tropics" forum.

If you are frustrated by the ignorance here, then you are free to ignore them, don't read them, or just leave the talkin' tropics forum and go to the pro-mets section.

Now, back to Noel....I don't know why you are getting so ramped up, unless you have property in the Bahamas...otherwise the Carolinas are safe as ever. Speaking of Carolinas, I am sure you know your stuff since you have been through more tropical systems than any Floridian...right?

North Carolina is the hurricane capital of the U.S. mainland and has got hit by more hurricanes than Florida by a long shot.

Whatever dude. You and I both werent here in the good ole days when this forum was full of KNOWLEDGEABLE people that knew what was going on and now everyone thinks they know the weather and they really dont.

Did I say something a few minutes ago about leaving the bickering behind?

[Thunder44]

901
URNT12 KNHC 010238
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 01/02:06:30Z
B. 23 deg 01 min N
078 deg 42 min W
C. NA mb 1401 m
D. 31 kt
E. 298 deg 046 nm
F. 041 deg 042 kt
G. 301 deg 061 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 18 C/ 1533 m
J. 20 C/ 1534 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /8
O. 0.02 / 9 nm
P. AF304 1016A NOEL OB 06
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 01:47:30 Z
;

[gatorcane]

I've been watching that stream of high clouds N of Tampa all day, which I think is the stalled front, those clouds have not advanced S of Tampa all day.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Yes the front has stalled....BUT....I can't see any steering mechanisms that would get Noel the 100 miles NW he needs to hit SE Florida...

So if that front over FL doesn't do it, the next trough behind in in the central GOM *should*

but wow Noel is really keeping us in suspense...

[destruction92]

Can someone let me know what this false return on the radar is( i know its not directly related to Noel, but i dont know where to put it):

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

Yeah, I was looking at my GRLEVEL3 and had to change stations to the keys... and the false return was still there.

I couldn't figure out what in the world it is, but it's moving toward the storm... lol

Aliens????? lol Or maybe a fleet of planes with dynogel... to help stop Noel? hahahhaha

No need to even look at the radar since Noel is already moving north according to the NHC....tropical storm watches will probably be discontinued as Noel continues moving North..expect a NNE movement by midnight IMO.

Seriously folks, lets focus our attention on the Bahamas...Florida has long been out of the risk....now not even a gale warning because of the decreasing pressure gradient...basically, more bark than bite for Floridians....And the western extreme portion of the forecast cone is a good 100 miles from the coast...and we all know how likely a system will move in the paths of outliers.

[Thunder44]

The current recon fixed the center about 17 miles NW of the last fix and 8pm Advisory position.

[ericinmia]

So anyone have any idea on what the 'ghost' on the two radar's are???

Maybe a new device the military is testing that sends a shockwave to the storm to deflect it and weaken it?

Seriously... it really interest me. Since two separate radar sites are picking up the SAME exact thing.

[gatorcane]

destruction92

Its moving NW still...

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 010236
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...NOEL MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA...WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO WORSEN IN
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO
JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 210 MILES...335
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS SLOW
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY SAMPLING THE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 996
MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N...78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WTNT41 KNHC 010238
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL HAS
DRAMATICALLY INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS STILL LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS LARGE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY...THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT NOEL HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KT...BASED
ON EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THESE WINDS ARE MAINLY OCCURRING
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS STILL NOT VERY
DISRUPTED BY THE INCOMING SHEAR AND GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION...NOEL STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONTAL ZONE.

AFTER A LONG TIME OVER CUBA OR NEARBY...NOEL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. NOEL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
BUT THE PREVAILING WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ARE BEGINNING TO CHANGE
AND SOON...NOEL WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL FORCE NOEL TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...NOEL WILL BE AFFECTING THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

SINCE NOEL IS ALREADY MOVING NORTHWARD AND IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM FLORIDA...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ...THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY UNEXPECTED INCREASE
IN THE WIND RADII WEST OF THE CYCLONE OR A DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF
THE FORECAST TRACK COULD PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE. IN FACT...
ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STRENGTHENING
NOEL A LITTLE...TURNING IT NORTHEASTWARD...AND MAKING IT
EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 23.2N 78.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 24.3N 78.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 26.5N 77.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 74.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 33.5N 70.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/0000Z 42.0N 63.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 05/0000Z 50.0N 53.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 06/0000Z 55.0N 42.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 010247
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 22 20071101
023530 2205N 07718W 8422 01518 0024 +172 +172 206039 039 028 009 00
023600 2204N 07717W 8420 01520 0023 +174 +174 207039 040 029 009 00
023630 2203N 07715W 8419 01521 0026 +171 +171 204040 041 028 010 00
023700 2202N 07714W 8418 01522 0028 +169 +169 202041 042 028 010 00
023730 2201N 07713W 8422 01518 0029 +170 +170 199043 043 028 009 00
023800 2200N 07711W 8421 01520 0027 +172 +172 198043 044 028 010 00
023830 2159N 07710W 8419 01521 0027 +171 +171 195046 046 026 009 00
023900 2158N 07709W 8420 01520 0025 +172 +172 195042 045 027 010 00
023930 2158N 07707W 8416 01526 0034 +159 +159 200044 047 030 011 00
024000 2157N 07706W 8439 01501 0040 +151 +151 197049 050 028 012 03
024030 2157N 07704W 8411 01532 0041 +149 +149 193050 051 999 999 03
024100 2159N 07704W 8413 01521 0037 +148 +148 188048 050 999 999 03
024130 2201N 07705W 8420 01514 0026 +163 +163 193044 045 030 011 03
024200 2203N 07705W 8424 01511 0025 +166 +166 200044 046 029 011 00
024230 2205N 07705W 8420 01515 0023 +169 +169 202047 048 027 010 00
024300 2207N 07705W 8422 01514 0023 +168 +168 200047 049 026 010 00
024330 2209N 07706W 8421 01515 0024 +169 +169 202046 046 029 010 00
024400 2211N 07706W 8419 01516 0025 +166 +166 201046 047 028 010 00
024430 2213N 07706W 8419 01518 0026 +166 +166 200043 044 028 010 00
024500 2215N 07706W 8422 01512 0024 +169 +169 200042 043 028 010 00
$$
;

51 kt FL

[Windtalker2]

The current recon fixed the center about 17 miles NW of the last fix and 8pm Advisory position.

hummmm 17 miles NW?

[Bgator]

recon said the center would be at 23N and 78.7W....but the NHC went with a different point.

[HURAKAN]

[Vortex]

If trends continue the Bahamas sure look like they may be dealing with a 80-90 mph Hurricane Thursday...Nassau looks in line to receive some of the worst weather...