Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Bgator]

because the 0300 advisory position is a 3 hour forecast, not a true position.

What do you mean?

[HurricaneRobert]

On the other hand, if Noel makes it to hurricane strength it is more likely that the name will be retired. WMO would do some crazy stuff like they did with Gordon (even though that made hurricane strength as well).

[tolakram]

So I'm guessing Cuba has given the OK to fly just offshore, or does free airspace (or whatever) extend that close to the shoreline?

['CaneFreak]

because the 0300 advisory position is a 3 hour forecast, not a true position.

CORRECTED:
Good point, but the point is the mean storm movement tendencies over the last several hours have been trending NORTH. Correct? In other words, the average storm movement over the past 4 hours has been trending towards 360 degrees or 0 degrees due north. In calculus terms, d-theta is approaching 360 degrees.

[BigA]

Listening to bahamain radio from andros and the DJ says nice evening mhan with this rain as the storm heads to cuba and florida...

That's not a good thing. Andros looks like it could receive a direct hit, although "direct" may not be entirely accurate with a system this broad and assymetric

[wxman57]

Central pressure isn't falling, though. Max SFMR winds only 34 kts, with 28-30 kts SFMR below the 51kt FL wind east of the center. Upper-level trof axis is moving into Florida now. Steering currents about to shift as southwest flow increases in the mid levels. Will be a different upper and mid-level regime out there by morning. Noel has never been able to align its core vertically, and the time for that is running short. It still doesn't look like much of a threat to Florida, as close as it is.

One other item of interest. Look at this plot of recon obs. Note that the strongest wind is farthest from the center to the southeast. That's not typical of a tropical low. A well organized tropical storm would have a wind field just the opposite, with strongest winds near the center, diminishing outward.

http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e244/zdtadmin/Noel/1RECON_NOEL2.jpg

Time for bed. Have to be at work at 6am.

[Vortex]

Folks with the cloud deck expanding significantly to the SW and some west this tell me that the atmosphere is going to allow for a period of some rapid intensification the next 6-12 hours...We are watching a storm mature into a hurricane during the next few hours...Fascinating stuff...Hope all are enjoying the show Mother Nature is beginning to put on tonight...

[Stratosphere747]

So I'm guessing Cuba has given the OK to fly just offshore, or does free airspace (or whatever) extend that close to the shoreline?

I doubt they have ever entered Cuban airspace for any of the missions for Noel.

[destruction92]

Yea, but after the advisory was issued, the Hurricane Hunters found the center more NW than thought, so it is unofficially moving NW or NNW in my opinion.

Hey Jeremy...could you give me the plot of Noel's coordinates according to the the hurricane hunters....I take these guys seriously since they have the most current, up-to-date, accurate information.

But, Noel is definitely NOT moving NNW....more like NNE.....if anything proves true, probably just a center relocation but nothing more than that IMO.....Why didn't the NHC CANCEL tropical storm watches for Florida....the 11 PM cone has shifted further EAST.....http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archiv ... p_3W.shtml

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 010307
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 24 20071101
025530 2256N 07709W 8422 01506 0018 +162 +162 190040 041 032 012 00
025600 2258N 07710W 8419 01508 0014 +167 +167 186039 040 032 012 00
025630 2300N 07710W 8422 01503 0009 +173 +173 185039 039 032 011 00
025700 2302N 07710W 8422 01504 0008 +175 +168 182037 038 032 012 00
025730 2304N 07710W 8418 01510 0009 +175 +164 183036 036 031 012 00
025800 2306N 07710W 8420 01509 0013 +172 +166 184035 035 028 012 00
025830 2308N 07710W 8419 01510 0015 +168 +168 183036 036 027 013 00
025900 2309N 07711W 8420 01505 0012 +168 +168 183038 039 030 012 00
025930 2311N 07711W 8423 01504 0016 +163 +163 179038 038 028 012 00
030000 2313N 07711W 8418 01509 0014 +167 +167 178039 040 024 011 00
030030 2315N 07711W 8418 01508 0011 +168 +168 179041 042 029 010 00
030100 2317N 07711W 8425 01502 0014 +166 +166 174043 044 030 011 00
030130 2319N 07711W 8418 01509 0022 +153 +153 171045 047 032 015 00
030200 2321N 07711W 8431 01499 0025 +151 +151 171034 035 035 014 00
030230 2323N 07712W 8418 01509 0015 +164 +164 174042 044 033 010 00
030300 2325N 07712W 8427 01502 0015 +168 +168 168040 042 032 010 00
030330 2327N 07712W 8417 01510 0027 +152 +152 162042 044 033 012 00
030400 2329N 07712W 8424 01506 0017 +168 +168 164038 039 033 011 00
030430 2331N 07712W 8422 01509 0016 +172 +172 165037 039 032 010 00
030500 2333N 07712W 8420 01511 0015 +174 +174 161037 037 031 010 00
$$
;

[Stratosphere747]

Folks with the cloud deck expanding significantly to the SW and some west this tell me that the atmosphere is going to allow for a period of some rapid intensification the next 6-12 hours...We are watching a storm mature into a hurricane during the next few hours...Fascinating stuff...Hope all are enjoying the show Mother Nature is beginning to put on tonight...

We had a minor discussion about this earlier and feel the need to point it out again. The term RI is overused and very misleading. There is no indication at all that Noel is about to enter a RI cycle.

[Bgator]

Its not moving NNE, for sure, and they didnt cancel them because they rather be safe than sorry, and the wind field is expanding.

[bocadude86]

Is that the center showing up on the long range radar out of miami?

[tolakram]

Yea, but after the advisory was issued, the Hurricane Hunters found the center more NW than thought, so it is unofficially moving NW or NNW in my opinion.

Hey Jeremy...could you give me the plot of Noel's coordinates according to the the hurricane hunters....I take these guys seriously since they have the most current, up-to-date, accurate information.

But, Noel is definitely NOT moving NNW....more like NNE.....if anything proves true, probably just a center relocation but nothing more than that IMO.....Why didn't the NHC CANCEL tropical storm watches for Florida....the 11 PM cone has shifted further EAST.....http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archiv ... p_3W.shtml

They explained their reasoning in the 11pm update. Any shift to the left plus an expanding wind field could put tropical storm force winds on the coast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0238.shtml

SINCE NOEL IS ALREADY MOVING NORTHWARD AND IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM FLORIDA...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ...THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY UNEXPECTED INCREASE
IN THE WIND RADII WEST OF THE CYCLONE OR A DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF
THE FORECAST TRACK COULD PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

[cycloneye]

Is that the center showing up on the long range radar out of miami?

But where is the link?

[gatorcane]

Yea, but after the advisory was issued, the Hurricane Hunters found the center more NW than thought, so it is unofficially moving NW or NNW in my opinion.

Hey Jeremy...could you give me the plot of Noel's coordinates according to the the hurricane hunters....I take these guys seriously since they have the most current, up-to-date, accurate information.

But, Noel is definitely NOT moving NNW....more like NNE.....if anything proves true, probably just a center relocation but nothing more than that IMO.....Why didn't the NHC CANCEL tropical storm watches for Florida....the 11 PM cone has shifted further EAST.....http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archiv ... p_3W.shtml

destruction you are extreme -- last night you were saying FL is in trouble and tonight you are arguing the total opposite way...

[HURAKAN]

['CaneFreak]

Its not moving NNE, for sure, and they didnt cancel them because they rather be safe than sorry, and the wind field is expanding.

Note that the strongest wind is farthest from the center to the southeast.

It may be expanding but eastward not westward.

[SouthFLTropics]

If you look at the Western Atlantic water vapor image on the NHC site you can see the trough digging Southeast. Here it come's to save the day! At least for FLA that is. The Bahama's on the other hand could have a real nasty morning. The trough could amplify Noel's winds kinda like what happened with Wilma in 2005.

SFT

[bocadude86]

Tropical storm warning now up for the costal waters of South Fla